18th Place Everton Still Given 14-1 Odds for EPL Relegation; Is There Value?

• Four straight defeats put coach Silva on thin ice at troubled Goodison Park
• Watford changed boss but are still stumbling at the bottom
• Southampton are in the mix after losing three consecutive games

Everton were expected to challenge the English Premier League’s elite this season. But instead, they are languishing in the relegation zone with manager Marco Silva’s job seriously under threat.

They have lost four consecutive EPL games to lie in 18^th place with only seven points.

After the international break, they face demanding fixtures at home against West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur and away at Brighton and Hove Albion and a potential relegation “six-pointer” at Southampton.

But the analysts have little fear that Everton will drop into the Championship, with sportsbooks pricing them at a wide +1400 – only the 11^th most likely team to tumble despite a shift from +3300 in September.

EPL 2019-20 Relegation Odds

*Odds taken at 2019/10/09. 

Norwich City, who are second-from-bottom, are favorites to be relegated at -120.

Newcastle Stun Manchester United

Then its bottom club Watford at +110, which offers a much better opportunity than Everton despite their narrower EPL relegation odds. They are followed by Newcastle United at +125 despite their 1-0 defeat of Manchester United at home last weekend (October 6).

Meanwhile, Southampton currently offer good value to go down even though they are rated seventh most likely at +350. They are 17th and have lost three straight EPL fixtures.

The Portuguese Silva currently heads the list of favorites to be the next EPL manager to depart from his job.

The #SaintsFC captain is focussed on improvement: pic.twitter.com/K5PNEdi6hi

— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) October 7, 2019

But he has rescued Everton from trouble before. During a depressing run of 15 EPL matches between December and March last season, Everton won just four times, lost nine and drew twice.

However, coach Silva is unlikely to get the same amount of time to put things right after suffering a similar torrid spell for a second successive season.

But they recovered to win six of their last 11 games and finished eighth.

However, coach Silva is unlikely to get the same amount of time to put things right after suffering a similar torrid spell for a second successive season and following an expensive summer re-build.

If he does, starting at home against West Ham, then Everton will escape from their problems on Saturday, October 19, at Goodison Park, at 7.30 am EST.

If he does not, there will be a change of manager, with the aim of getting the club out of the drop zone.

Either scenario explains why the analysts are confident that the Merseyside club can break free from the relegation zone eventually.

Long Stretch in Top Flight

Their assessment is correct. Everton were founder members of the Football League in 1888 and since then have missed only four seasons in the top flight – the last being in 1953-54..

A managerial change saved them from the drop in 2016-17. When they hit the bottom three after a 5-2 defeat by Arsenal in October, Ronald Koeman was fired.

He was replaced by Sam Allardyce who guided the club to an eighth position finish but then departed.

?️ Speaking after the goalless draw at Vicarage Road, John Fleck felt the Blades were good on the ball without creating enough clear chances.#SUFC ?

— Sheffield United (@SheffieldUnited) October 7, 2019

The apparent strength of Everton’s squad is another supporting factor.

Last summer they spent $45 million to sign Alex Iwobi from Arsenal and bought Moise Kean from Juventus for $40 million.

“The Toffees” have managed just two EPL victories while scoring only six goals and conceding 13.

They also secured impressive Portuguese former loanee midfielder Andres Gomes on a permanent deal from Barcelona and captured Ivorian defensive midfielder Jean-Phillipe Gbamin from Germany’s Mainz.

But “the Toffees” have managed just two EPL victories while scoring only six goals and conceding 13.

Newly-promoted Norwich was among the pre-season favorites to head straight back down.

They have suffered a run of three straight defeats since a memorable 3-2 defeat of champions Manchester City on September 14.

Thrashed by Aston Villa

After succumbing to Burnley and Crystal Palace away from home, they were thrashed 5-1 on their own patch by Aston Villa last Saturday (October 5).

Watford changed their manager by sacking Javi Gracia and recalling Quique Sanches Florez.

8️⃣ Members of our first-team squad could feature for their nations over the international break ⬇ #ncfc

— Norwich City FC (@NorwichCityFC) October 7, 2019

But they have collected just two points in four matches since the switch and suffered an 8-0 hammering by Manchester City.

Sheffield United, also newly-promoted, are fourth favorites for relegation.

Newcastle escaped from the bottom three by defeating Manchester United and hope a tactical change by manager Steve Bruce will now lead to continued good fortune.

Sheffield United, also newly-promoted, are fourth favorites for relegation at +165.

Despite currently holding 13^th place, they are only two points ahead of Everton at this early stage.

Aston Villa, also newly-promoted, are fifth favorites at +200. They are presently 15^th.

Picks: Norwich City -120; Watford +110; Southampton +350