- Man City massive favorites
- Guardiola’s men hunting down the treble
- Watford massive +550 underdogs
This weekend sees Manchester City going for their third trophy in what could be a quite remarkable domestic treble.
The Carabao (League) Cup was won way back in February, the Premier League title was confirmed last weekend, and this Saturday, May 18, 2019, 12:00 pm EST they take on Watford in the FA Cup Final.
If successful, they will be the first English side ever to achieve this feat.
Manchester City vs Watford FA Cup Final – Odds
|Team||Spread||Moneyline||Total||Odds To Lift The Trophy at BetOnline|
|Manchester City||-2 (+106)||-500||O3 (-120)||-900|
|Watford||+2 (-126)||+1000||U3 (+100)||+550|
*Odds taken on May 15, 2019
City’s domestic dominance is reflected in the odds above but is there any value to be had within the spreads and props on offer, and is there any value at all in looking at a Watford win? We’ll take a look.
City Looking for 15 Wins on the Spin
Pep Guardiola’s men have been favorites to win the 2019 FA Cup since the competition started and even going into their semifinal against Brighton were odds-on to win it, such has been their dominance of English football over the last 24 months.
Brighton 1-4 Manchester City: Report, Ratings & Reaction as Citizens Secure Premier League Title pic.twitter.com/dQjdwDhSpA
— Lantan Sport (@Lantansport) May 12, 2019
In addition, they are in a supreme run of form that has seen them win 14 times on the spin and are on a massive high after their emphatic 4-1 win at Brighton sealed consecutive EPL titles.
One thing Guardiola has proved a master of, in particular, is maintaining the hunger of his squad and there will be no let-up just because they already have two major trophies in the bag. In the moments that followed the award of the EPL trophy, it was noticeable how many City players spoke of their desire to now go on and wrap up the treble.
Watford Head to Wembley With No Fear
As if Watford’s task wasn’t difficult enough already, they have a fired-up and motivated City to contend with, but in their favor they will be playing without fear and under no pressure. No one expects the Hornets to go on and win the trophy in the same way no-one saw them even qualifying for the final, so, to use an English sporting term, this is very much a ‘free hit’ for them.
FT: Watford 3-2 Wolves
Watford are into the FA Cup final.
A moment Hornets fans will never forget.
2-0 down with 11 minutes left to 3-2 winners.
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) April 7, 2019
And let’s not forget, this is a good Watford side, one that finished comfortably half-way in the Premier League and picked up some good results along the way; a team that beat Newcastle United, Crystal Palace and Wolves on their way to only the club’s second-ever FA Cup Final.
Both teams head into the game with almost fully fit squads, with the only major doubt being City’s Brazilian midfielder Fernandinho who missed the final three matches of the season due to a knee injury.
Aguero On Fire
For City, the threats are numerous – they have goalscorers throughout the team – but Sergio Aguero is still the main man and has scored 32 goals in all competitions this season, including two at Wembley in the Community Shield back in August. He’s favorited to be opening goalscorer for a reason but offers little value.
🏆Champions🏆 Very excited to obtain another title with this fantastic FC, and on the most competitive league in the world. We've achieved this together — the players, the coaches, the staff, the board, and our amazing supporters. Thank you all, and we're aiming for more! 💪🏽 🤟🏽 pic.twitter.com/lHlHYsSuwX
— Sergio Kun Aguero (@aguerosergiokun) May 12, 2019
For value in this market, look no further than Bernardo Silva, who has finished the season in great style. City’s Portugal international has excellent stats to back up his fine form and has had no less than 18 shots in his last five games.
Deulofeu the Hornet Threat
Watford’s goal threat is far removed from City’s, but they do have Spanish winger Gerard Deulofeu, who has ended the season in fine goalscoring form with seven goals in his last 11 Premier League games. He was also the two-goal hero in the Hornets’ 3-2 extra-time win against Wolves in their semifinal.
FULL-TIME Cardiff 1-5 Watford
— Premier League (@premierleague) February 22, 2019
In terms of the head-to-heads between these two, City holds all the cards. Watford have lost their last ten matches against Guardiola’s men, the most recent defeat being a 3-1 defeat at the Etihad back in March. All of which adds up to this being a very tough afternoon for the Hornets.
Expect the Unexpected
Yet, FA Cup finals have a habit of throwing up the unexpected and Watford will be well-prepared by manager Javi Gracia. He offered up a tactical masterclass in the semi against Wolves and will have a plan to contain City’s superstars – the big question being, are his players good enough to implement it?
We think he’ll have a degree of success but perhaps not enough to stop City winning their third trophy. We also have a hunch that Deulofeu will get on the scoresheet, so are going for a 2-1 win for Man City.
Our picks found at Bovada: City to win 2-1 (City win & both teams score +200) / Deulofeu as anytime goalscorer (+360)