MLS Cup Playoffs Conference Semifinals Odds & Best Bets

• The Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs resume this Wednesday-Thursday with the Conference Semifinals
• Supporters’ Shield-winning Los Angeles FC host the LA Galaxy in what will be the biggest and most anticipated match of the year
• See the odds and best bets for this weekend’s first round of matches below

After a wild weekend of MLS Cup Playoffs action, the league resumes midweek with Conference Semifinals play. New York City FC will host Toronto FC, while Seattle hosts Real Salt Lake on Wednesday, October 23. Then on Thursday, Atlanta United hosts the Philadelphia Union, while LAFC host the LA Galaxy.

Let’s break down a best bet for each of the matchups.

MLS Cup Playoffs Conference Semifinal Odds

All odds taken October 23, 2019

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RT if you're ready for the next round! // @Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/gZ8sZVhvdn

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 22, 2019

NYCFC vs Toronto FC

Toronto took advantage of the home-field they grabbed from DC on Decision Day and were victorious over that same DC side in Round One. A quick look at the final score is deceiving though, as it was no way as lopsided as the 5-1 scoreline would indicate.

Toronto took the lead through a 32’ Marky Delgado goal which came off a sloppy save and rebound by DC keeper Bill Hamid. The lead would hold up until Lucas Rodriguez drew level DC level in the dying moments with a stoppage-time goal. What ensued though, was a TFC onslaught in extra-time with four goals in 15-plus minutes to all but seal qualification to the conference semis prior to the second half of extra-time.

On deck is NYCFC, which is rested off a bye for finishing first in the East. New York have only lost once at home all season, though it’s important to note they’ll be playing at Citi Field, versus their regular home pitch at Yankee Stadium.

It’s not the worst opponent for TFC, given they defeated New York 4-0 at home and drew 1-1 in New York this season. TFC missed several chances to grab all three points in New York as well. However, NYC were missing key playmaker Maxi Moralez and striker Heber in both meetings.

Toronto could be missing some key pieces themselves on Wednesday. Striker Jozy Altidore missed Round One with a quad injury, while in-season addition Omar Gonzalez also missed out with a hamstring injury. Both are game-time decisions.

We’ll see how it looks and feels tomorrow, but I think Citi Field might be more conducive to soccer than Yankee Stadium, a bit more intimate here. Those three decks full of loud fans would be intimidating. Could be wrong, but this isn’t the worst setup. #NYCFC pic.twitter.com/5q81b1R81M

— Ryan Gerbosi (@RyanGerbosi) October 22, 2019

Both sides are riding impressive streaks heading into this match. NYC have lost just once in their past 11 matches. Toronto meanwhile, has avoided defeat in 11-straight league matches themselves.

One streak has to end, and while I count myself a TFC fan, on the road, minus some key players, I think it will be Toronto’s.

New York has scored at least two goals at home in 4/5 recent MLS matches and in 10/13 games overall and I think they’ll be able to put at least two by Quentin Westberg on Wednesday.

Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

It’s #2 versus #3 in the Western Conference on Wednesday. Both sides were involved in frantic finishes to their Round One matches on Saturday.

Seattle jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over FC Dallas and looked to be headed towards a straightforward win and progression to the conference semis. However, Dallas would draw things level at the 64′ minute and the teams would trade goals in the latter stages of the match to send things into extra-time tied 3-3.

It would be Seattle’s Jordan Morris though who scored his third goal of the match in the 113′ minute to secure the win for Rave Green.

JORDAN MORRIS!

HE SEALS HIS HAT TRICK IN EXTRA TIME! ? #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/9V0j2Skog8

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) October 19, 2019

RSL had a few things going for them in Round One. Firstly, they were at home. They were also favored over a Timbers team which only secured their playoff spot on Decision Day. The Timbers were also missing both Diego Valeri and Brian Fernandez. Those are huge pieces to be missing in a one-off playoff match. RSL prevailed 2-1 through a late Jefferson Savarino goal in the 87′ minute.

That won’t be the case in the semis, as they’ll travel to CenturyLink in Seattle—a location in which they’ve had very almost no success.

Home-field played an important role in this series during the regular season with Seattle winning 1-0 at home on April 6 and RSL winning 3-0 on their home pitch on August 14. Home-field has also proved crucial between these sides historically. RSL did win in Seattle 1-0 last year, but that win is the only road victory for either team between the two in any of the past 17 MLS matches. You have to go back to 2012 to find the next road victory for either side in the league.

.@SoundersFC know they can't keep living like they did in the first round: https://t.co/DeyFBD2JvE pic.twitter.com/KbaiPy9yUG

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 23, 2019

These teams have a long history in MLS and have played through stretches of matches that have followed a similar pattern. There was a stretch from 2011-13 where the sides played 8/9 matches to “Under” 2.5 total goals. Then from 2014-16 things opened up with 7/9 going “Over” that total. More recently, lower-scoring affairs have been the norm for Seattle vs RSL, as five-straight matches saw two goals or less, prior to their match in August.

While none of the past seven matches between these sides have seen both scoring, I feel that trend will end Wednesday. Seattle has too much firepower to be held off the scoresheet at home and RSL head coach Freddy Juarez has already stated he plans to take a page out of Dallas’ playbook and play an attacking style in the semis.

Pick: Both teams to score (-150)

Atlanta vs Philadelphia

Defending champions Atlanta United played host to seventh-place New England Revolution in Round One. And while benching 2018 South American Player of the Year Pity Martinez was a talking point when the match began, Frank de Boer earned plaudits for his in-game adjustments in subbing on both Florentin Pogba and Hector Villalba just past the hour-mark.

The change in tactics sparked life into the Atlanta attack and the Five Stripes would score the game’s lone goal just minutes later for the 1-0 win.

Over in Chester, PA, the Union and New York Red Bulls played out the weekend’s second 4-3 scoreline. While Philly looked to be in for a long day going down 2-0 just 24 minutes in and 3-1 at half, they scored twice in the second half to send the match to extra-time. A late goal in the first half of extra-time by Marco Fabian would prove to be the winner.

?️ "We're going to get this for you."

That's what Alejandro Bedoya told Andre Blake while facing a two-goal deficit in #PHIvRBNY.

It ended up being a message from the Union to their playoff-starved supporters.@erichesports ➡️ https://t.co/FzE1vCBt7q pic.twitter.com/EYdQmQdmm2

— Yahoo Soccer (@FCYahoo) October 21, 2019

This was another match where substitutions made a big impact as both Fafa Picault and Fabian were subbed on mid-game and were responsible for the Union’s third and fourth goals. The Union could be without captain Alejandro Bedoya who was forced off late in what looked to be an aggravated quad injury, but in what was described as cramps by the team. They could also be again without leading goalscorer Kacper Pryzbylko who missed out last weekend with a foot injury.

Atlanta have some injuries of their own to deal with on the backline. Miles Robinson was already missing in Round One with a hamstring injury, and on Saturday, his replacement Michael Parkhurst went down late with a dislocated shoulder. Frank de Boer will need to adjust for the loss of both center-backs.

FCAtlanta United CB Michael Parkhurst out ‘a couple of weeks’ with dislocated shoulder #ATLUTD #ATLvNE #MLSCupPlayoffs https://t.co/2aHNUeq5sm

— Chris Fuhrmeister (@ccfuhr) October 19, 2019

The sides have met on six previous occasions with Atlanta holding the 3-1-2 (WLD) advantage. This season, the teams drew 1-1 in Atlanta, while Philly were 3-1 winners at home in the most recent matchup in August.

Philadelphia is coming off a high of winning their franchise’s first-ever playoff game. You have to walk before you can run. Atlanta are the champs, are at home and will have had over a full day of extra rest having played early Saturday. I do believe the Union will be able to contribute to the scoresheet though.

Pick: Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (TBA)

LAFC vs LA Galaxy

It’s the match all of MLS has been hoping for. A playoff edition of the El Tráfico all-LA rivalry. While LAFC have been coasting towards what looks like an inevitable MLS Cup title, they will have to surpass the obstacle that is the LA Galaxy—a team they have yet to defeat in five all-time meetings.

While LAFC enjoyed a bye on the weekend, the Galaxy were the only road team to claim victory (2-1 over Minnesota) in Round One.

“This is only the beginning. We don’t stop for nobody. We continue like this. We destroy everybody.” – @Ibra_official pic.twitter.com/u3GWKkLaq5

— LA Galaxy (@LAGalaxy) October 21, 2019

LAFC scored more goals, allowed fewer and finished with a goal differential of +49 over the Galaxy during regular season play. But all those numbers seem to go out the window when these two teams meet.

The Galaxy were 3-2 winners in Carson this season back in July, and the teams drew 3-3 the month later at Banc of California Stadium. Last season the Galaxy hosted their crosstown rivals twice, earning a 4-3 win and 1-1 draw. In the lone match at the Banc, the teams drew 2-2.

That gives the Galaxy the edge at 2-0-3 (WLD) overall. There is no argument that LAFC are the better team. The stats and the eye test make that case very easily. The Galaxy rarely play an exciting style of soccer, despite having arguably the biggest name in MLS history in their lineup.

But that man, Zlatan, scored 30 goals this year and has scored eight goals in the five combined head-to-heads.

#LAFC ? #LAGalaxy. Meant to be. @LAFC relishing the chance to take down their cross-town rivals in the Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs: https://t.co/FN3KTBet4j pic.twitter.com/NDcXv8cSDT

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 23, 2019

The only player to score more goals this year than Ibra will be playing across the pitch from him Thursday in LAFC’s Carlos Vela. Vela finished with 34 goals on the season and has scored seven goals in the rivalry himself.

So if you’re doing the math, that’s 24 goals in five matches between these teams for an average of 4.8 GPG, with 15 coming from either Ibrahimovic or Vela.

Surely these two will be involved in the scoring and surely this must be LAFC’s time. The goalscorer and both teams to score and Over/Under props have yet to be released, but have to be considered. BTTS and Over 2.5 seems like a straightforward bet. The Galaxy to score “Over” 1.5 goals offers some value at +175. LAFC to win in regulation offers little value, but I think they can get out to an early lead, making an LAFC first half bet attractive value at -120.

Pick: LAFC to win first half (-120)