MLS Week 25 Odds & Picks: Heineken Rivalry Week

• It’s Heineken Rivalry Week in MLS Week 25 with numerous key matchups across the league
• Playoff implications on the line between New England and Chicago
• LA Derby renews with LAFC looking for first El Tráfico win

It’s Heineken Rivalry Week in MLS Week 25 which means some of the longest and even newest rivalries will be on full display this weekend as teams navigate the final quarter of the regular season.

It was a big week in MLS history off the pitch, with St. Louis being announced as the league’s 28th team. The expansion side will be led by the league’s only female majority ownership group and is expected to join the league in 2022.

It's official! ?

St. Louis will be the the 28th team in Major League Soccer. https://t.co/UHOGHQG7Gg

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 20, 2019

But back to this weekend, and as Week 25 rolls along, we take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Odds

*All odds taken August 23, 2019

Fire Making Late Playoff Push

For much of the season, the Chicago Fire have languished well below the Eastern Conference playoff line. However, with wins in three of their past four games, along with just one loss in five, they now find themselves just a single point back of the seventh and final playoff spot in MLS Week 25.

The Fire sits on 33 points, which is just behind the 34 of each of Toronto, Orlando and current seventh-place side Montreal. With 28 games played though, the schedule could be their biggest enemy, as they have the least amount of games remaining of any team in the East.

With that being said, every result will be critical moving forward, especially when they travel to fellow Eastern opponent New England at 7:30 pm EST on Saturday. The Revolution are currently in a playoff position, but just barely in sixth place and 35 points. These two teams could conceivably swap positions by the end of the weekend depending on how this and other results fall.

Though Chicago has taken points from four of five, three of those four came in home matches. The lone points taken on the road came in a 1-0 win over Houston. The Dynamo, have been spiraling, and recently let go of head coach Wilmer Cabrera.

The one match they didn’t take points from recently, was a 3-2 road loss to Portland. And the road is where this match will take place this weekend. This season, and also historically, the road has been where Chicago Fire tickets go to die.

At home, Chicago is a quite respectable 7W-2L-6T. But on the road, that win over the Dynamo was their first this season. They are a dismal 1W-9L-3T on their travels. Last year over the full season they were 2-11-4 on the road. 2017 saw them win just four road games, 2016 just one and zero in 2015. So in almost five full seasons, the Fire has a road record of 7-58-16.

NEWS | #cf97 successfully appeal @nicogaitan's red card suspension.

Gaitán is eligible to play Saturday against New England. ?

— Chicago Fire FC (@ChicagoFire) August 20, 2019

The Fire got some good news this week as they successfully appealed DP Nicolas Gaitan’s red card from last game. It was the second-straight game the Fire played down a man. Gaitan was sent off at half, yet the Fire held on for a 2-0 win over Philadelphia. In the loss to Portland, they received a red card at the half-hour mark. That means Chicago has played nearly a full game down a man over their past two matches.

On the flip side, Aleksandar Katai saw his suspension increased from the game prior, and will not be eligible this weekend.

I’ve yet to touch on the New England side of this match, but New England has been on fire since the appointment of Bruce Arena, coupled with the addition of Gustavo Bou.

"I'm looking forward to the future" – Matt Turner on re-signing #NERevs pic.twitter.com/FM6DMYVmic

— New England Revolution (@NERevolution) August 21, 2019

They’ve lost just once over their past 14 MLS matches. Considering that one loss came to LAFC, we can give them a pass. Their past two matches have seen them draw 3-3 and 1-1 with Seattle and New York Red Bulls, and both on the road.

The Revolution have lost just twice at home this year and will be looking to avenge an earlier season 5-0 beatdown they received in Chicago. That loss actually led to the dismissal of Brad Friedel as head coach. However, three of those Fire goals came after the 78′ minute mark.

The locations have changed this time around and the Revolution are a completely different team now compared to who they were in early May.

Pick: New England Revolution win (EVEN) or New England to score over 1.5 goals (-145)

LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy Odds

Can LAFC Earn First Win Over Crosstown Rivals?

No MLS Rivalry Week article can be complete without mention of one of the league’s newest rivalries between Los Angeles based sides LAFC and the LA Galaxy. Second-year side LAFC will be hosting the last match of the weekend at 10:30 pm EST on Sunday night.

When these teams met in Carson, California back in Week 20, it was the Galaxy who came away with the  3-2 home win.

LAFC may be a full 19 points better than any side in the West, and 16 points better than the East’s Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union, but none of that will matter when they attempt to earn their side’s first-ever win against the Galaxy.

The July 19 matchup saw Zlatan Ibrahimovic score a hat-trick for the Galaxy, while Carlos Vela, he of the new all-time season goals and assists record, tallied two goals of his own.

The average goals scored between these two has been 4.5.

It was the fourth overall meeting between the teams, all of which have seen both teams finding the back of the net, with goal totals reaching seven, four, two and five. So the average goals scored between these two has been 4.5, hence, the overly high total of 4.0 set for this match.

Each team played earlier this week. LA Galaxy rested most regulars in a 2-1 Leagues Cup defeat to Cruz Azul on Tuesday. While LAFC hosted another California-based side, the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday, which resulted in a straight-forward 4-0 win.

Pick: LAFC to win and both teams to score (+130) or both teams to score over 2.5 total goals (-180)

MLS Week 25 Parlay Bet

Let’s take a look at small parlay for the weekend’s matches between the Philadelphia Union vs DC United and FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew.

Philadelphia Union vs DC United Odds

Sitting at the top of the Eastern Conference standings, tied with 45 points alongside Atlanta, the Philadelphia Union will host DC United at 7:30 pm EST on Saturday.

The Union are coming off a 2-0 road loss to Chicago, made worse by the fact they played the second half up a man after a Nicolas Gaitan red card. The Union ended the match with 18 attempts on goal and three on target, but no goals.

At home, they’ve won eight of 13 matches and their recent form has seen them win three of five. Both losses during that stretch came on the road. However, one of those victories also came on the road, to this same DC squad, as recently as August 4, when they won 5-1. 

Heineken #RivalryWeek is here! @MattDoyle76 and @bwarshaw14 debate the matchups to watch. ? https://t.co/EeUcyMxZB6

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 20, 2019

DC United are falling fast with just three wins in their last 16 MLS games.

They’re coming off a short week where they lost 2-1 at home to Red Bulls on Wednesday. DC went down early in the sixth minute and looked to be in for a long night when Wayne Rooney was sent off with a straight red card in the 24′ minute. However, the balance would be restored when the Red Bulls received a red card of their own in first-half stoppage time.

Wayne Rooney shown a straight red card in MLS ?

Still a Red Devil ?pic.twitter.com/V0fnixrt4c

— Goal (@goal) August 22, 2019

While DC drew level early in the second half, New York would score the game-winner just minutes later through a Daniel Royer penalty.

With just one win in six, without Rooney and against a Philly side which has had DC’s number of late in winning four of five recent meetings, I like the Union for the win.

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Odds

This may not be the sexiest matchup of the weekend, but when FC Cincinnati host the Columbus Crew in MLS Week 25 at 6:00 pm EST on Sunday evening, they’ll be hosting their first Hell is Real rivalry match in MLS at Nippert Stadium.

The first installment of the rivalry took place earlier this month on August 10 in Columbus. There, the MLS newcomers Cincinnati jumped out to an early 2-0 lead inside of 23 minutes. The Crew would get one back through a Gyasi Zardes penalty right before half, before drawing level just past the hour mark of the match. The result would stand as the match ended 2-2.

Columbus held an edge in attempts (19-7) and shots on target (6-3).

While FCC is well out of the playoff conversation, their scoring has picked up with goals in four-straight matches and in eight of nine overall. That gives me some confidence in backing them to at least find the back of the next once, at home this weekend.

When considering the other side of the equation, it’s not even worth mentioning Columbus, based on the fact that Cincy has allowed a league-worst 61 goals. FCC has played a total of 28 games between MLS and the US Open Cup. Only twice have they kept a clean sheet. So backing FCC to concede would be a proposition that’s paid off at a 26-2 rate. I like it.

ICYMI: @kwaston88 and Roland Lamah are excited to battle #Crew96 at home in a full stadium. #HellisReal pic.twitter.com/LLxVQMmNKP

— FC Cincinnati (@fccincinnati) August 22, 2019

But we can’t leave out the Crew entirely here, whose last six matches have averaged 3.66 goals per game. They’ve scored at least twice in 5/6 and both teams have scored in every match.

Parlay Pick: Philadelphia Union win & Cincinnati vs Columbus BTTS (+108)