2019 UEFA Champions League Final Odds & Prediction: Liverpool vs Tottenham
- European soccer’s biggest prize up for grabs on Saturday
- Liverpool and Tottenham meet in Madrid
- The Reds start as hot favorites
European soccer’s top prize is up for grabs this weekend on Saturday, June 1, 2019, at 3:00 pm EST when Liverpool and Tottenham meet in Madrid’s Wanda Metropolitano Stadium in the UEFA Champions League Final.
It’s a final pairing few had predicted but one that was born of two of the most thrilling semifinals the competition has ever seen, with Liverpool overcoming the mighty Barcelona and Tottenham a young, vibrant Ajax team who appeared destined for the final.
Liverpool vs Tottenham UEFA Champions League Final Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -0.5 (-108) | -108 | U 2.5 (-107) | -220 |
| Tottenham | +0.5 (-108) | +270 | O 2.5 (-109) | +175 |
| Draw | N/A | +220 | N/A | N/A |
*Odds taken on May 28, 2019
The Reds start as favorites but offer little value for the straight win in 90 minutes. (-108). For value bets on the Liverpool win, it’s probably wise to try and predict the score, which we’ll look at later.
North London Underdogs
That Tottenham start as underdogs is nothing new for the North London team, as it’s a position they have been in for virtually the whole competition. A disastrous opening to their Champions League campaign saw them lose away to Inter Milan and then at home to Barcelona before finally picking up their first point away at PSV.
Tottenham 2-1 PSV FT:
Shots: 30-8
Pass accuracy: 84%-57%
Chances created: 24-8
Possession: 75%-25%Two late goals from Harry Kane gives Tottenham their first victory in the Champions League this season. pic.twitter.com/5QYp6e4WyV
— Squawka Football (@Squawka) November 6, 2018
At that stage, one point from a possible nine meant their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages were hanging by a thread, but two consecutive home wins – over PSV and Inter – meant they headed to Barcelona for their final group game still with a chance of qualifying. As it transpired, a late strike from Lucas Moura earned them the point they needed to go through.
On paper, Tottenham’s Round-of-16 game with Borussia Dortmund was a really tough one, but an emphatic 3-0 win at Wembley in the first-leg set them up nicely to cruise through to the last eight, with Harry Kane getting the only goal of the second-leg.
Drama in Manchester
If the Dortmund tie was comfortable, Spurs’ last-eight game with Manchester City was the polar opposite and will go down in Champions League history as one of its most dramatic ever. A narrow 1-0 Tottenham win in their new stadium set the second-leg up nicely but few could have predicted what was to follow.
A topsy-turvy evening at the City of Manchester Stadium saw the lead fluctuate continually until the dying seconds, when a Sergio Aguero goal that would have sent City through was ruled out by VAR.
FT: Man City 4-3 Tottenham (4-4 agg)
What on earth has just happened?
Seven goals, a last minute winner withdrawn on VAR…
At the end of it all, Tottenham are in the #UCL semi-finals!
Reaction: https://t.co/dXaCEkmMCM#MCITOT pic.twitter.com/rB0dgyfzwv
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) April 17, 2019
More drama was to follow in their semifinal with Ajax, which began with what was a fairly comfortable 1-0 win for the Dutch champions in North London.
Spurs looked dead and buried when two first-half goals by the Dutch in the second-leg took them into a 3-0 lead, but a sensational second-half hat-trick by Moura – the winner coming in the 96th minute – took them through on the away-goals rule.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Match-Ups
| 7 / 12 | Number of wins in 2019 UCL / Number of games | 6 / 12 |
| 22 / 1.83 | Number of goals scored in 2019 UCL / Per game | 20 / 1.67 |
| 12 / 1 | Number of goals conceded in 2019 UCL / Per game | 17 / 1.4 |
| 5349 / 81% | Total passes completed in 2019 UCL / Pass completion | 5173 / 84% |
| 172 / 14.3 | Total goal attempts in 2019 UCL / Per game | 183 / 15.3 |
| 11 | Number of European trophies won | 3 |
| 33 | Number of domestic trophies won | 14 |
| 21 | Number of European finals | 4 |
Liverpool’s route to the final was no less traumatic and they too needed a result in their final group game to qualify for the knockout stages.
Home wins over Paris St. Germain and Crvena Zvezda were cancelled out by away defeats to the same two teams, and an away defeat in Napoli meant the final group game – at home to the Italians – was a must-win.
In the end, a 34th-minute Mo Salah goal was enough to take the Reds through to the knockout phase after a nervy night at Anfield.
Reds Do It the Hard Way
In similar circumstances to Tottenham’s Round-of-16 tie, Liverpool had tough German opposition in the form of Bayern Munich, who they drew 0-0 with at Anfield before sensationally beating them 3-1 in Bavaria. This was followed by a straightforward 6-1 aggregate win over Porto in the quarterfinal, which set up a semifinal showdown with Barcelona.
FT Bayern Munich 1-3 Liverpool (Agg 1-3)
Two goals for Mane and one for Van Dijk send Liverpool through to the Champions League quarter-finals!
Live reaction https://t.co/EoKyeJeQSf #FCBLFC pic.twitter.com/P6pOW5et1Q
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) March 13, 2019
Despite a good performance in the Camp Nou, the Reds were up against an inspired Lionel Messi and came away with a 3-0 defeat and an almost impossible task ahead at Anfield six days later. Except it wasn’t.
Liverpool FC 4 – 0 Barcelona FC | What a historic comeback#UCL #lfc pic.twitter.com/srnXx5Ts7w
— Fredrik (@F_Edits) May 10, 2019
On a night that was every bit as dramatic as Tottenham’s night in Amsterdam, Jurgen Klopp’s men came back from the dead to first of all pull level on aggregate – goals from Divock Origi and Georginio Wijnaldum (2) – before, on 79 minutes, Origi turned in Trent Alexander-Arnold’s corner to send Anfield into dreamland.
That Tottenham start as underdogs is nothing new for the North London team, as it’s a position they have been in for virtually the whole competition
Liverpool Ahead on Numbers
So, where does this all leave us ahead of Saturday’s showdown? Well, those who bet by numbers will definitely fancy the Reds to win it in normal time. They beat Tottenham both home and away in the Premier League, and only lost a single league game all season. Also, they come out ahead of Spurs in almost all of the ‘match-up’ stats.
But this is knockout soccer, and logic often counts for nothing. And if Tottenham has displayed one quality above all others in this thrilling ride to Madrid, it’s resilience. They looked dead and buried in the group stages but they emerged. They looked dead and buried against City but they somehow found a way and against Ajax, they performed one of the comebacks of the century.
Kane the Key
So, to write off Mauricio Pochettino’s men before a ball has been kicked would be a huge mistake, although to counter that, even if top scorer Harry Kane is able to make the game he won’t be 100% match fit after missing nearly six weeks with damaged ankle ligaments.
And we happen to think that Liverpool will be desperate not to miss out for the second consecutive season after losing to Real Madrid in last season’s final, and this extra desire could be the deciding factor.
Champions League pick: Liverpool to win 3-1 at +1400
Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
