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AC Milan vs AS Roma Odds & Betting Preview Serie A Round 28

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer

Jun 27, 2020 · 7:37 AM PDT

AS Roma defender Aleksandar Kolarov waving to crowd
Aleksandar Kolarov and AS Roma go into Sunday's match against AC Milan hoping to stretch their unebeaten run to six games. Photo by Антон Зайцев (Wiki Commons).
  • Fifth-placed Roma enter the match desperately chasing the fourth and final Champions League spot
  • AC Milan are mired in seventh place and sit nine points back of Roma
  • Get the full odds, preview, and best bet for this match below

It has not been an easy year for AC Milan. While the boardroom carousel has continued to rotate for much of the last 12 months, results on the pitch have not been much better.

But with a chance at winning successive matches for the first time since January, Stefano Pioli’s side has a chance to consolidate its spot in the top seven and with Napoli’s Italian Cup win freeing up an extra Europa League spot, possibly qualify for next season’s second-tier continental competition.

AS Roma come into this game with a much bigger prize to play for though. Six points back of fourth-placed Atalanta, the Champions League is certainly within reach for Paulo Fonseca’s team, which enters the match unbeaten in five games. Here are all this weekend’s Serie A odds and picks, before we get into this particular matchup.

AC Milan vs AS Roma Match Odds

Team Spread Win Total
AC Milan 0.0 (EVEN) +175 O 2.5/3 (-105)
AS Roma 0.0 (-120) +150 U 2.5/3 (-115)
Draw N/A +240 N/A

Odds as of June 27

Offensively Challenged

One of the main sources of Milan’s troubles this season has been goal scoring, most glaringly at home. In 13 Serie A games at San Siro, the Rossoneri have just 13 goals, a rate of return that’s well below the league average of 1.55. In addition, it’s the club’s worst such home total since Milan had just 12 goals at this stage of the season in 1997-98.

With star striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic still sidelined with a leg injury, the goal-scoring mantle will once again fall to Ante Rebic. The Croatian forward has scored seven Serie A goals in 16 games, accounting for 44% of the club’s league goals in 2020.

Defensive Blow

While the attack has struggled, Milan were also handed a blow at the back when centre back Simon Kjaer came down injured in last weekend’s 2-1 win over Lecce. He will likely miss out, and with Brazilian Leo Duarte also not at full fitness, Milan may be forced to hand 19-year-old Matteo Gabbia just his third league start.

Piling on Pressure

Sunday’s match comes at the perfect time for Roma. While away visits at the San Siro have traditionally been fraught affairs for visiting teams, that history seems to have deserted Milan this season.

AC Milan vs. AS Roma Statistical Breakdown

AC Milan
AS Roma

11-6-10 Serie A Record (Won/Drawn/Lost) 14-6-7
Seventh Serie A Position Fifth
32 Goals For 53
35 Goals Against 36
55.1% Possession 54.4%
15.78 Shots Per Game 17.22
4.37 Shots On Target Per Game 5.44

The team lost its most recent home fixture against Genoa back in early March before the lockdown, and has also dropped points against Hellas Verona, Sampdoria, Sassuolo and Napoli, as well as losing against Lazio, all since the start of November.

Road Warriors

Conversely, Roma has actually been a better team away from the Eternal City, although they did beat Milan 2-1 there back in October. In addition to picking up 54% of their wins as the away team, they have been a statistically better club as visitors.

The Giallorossi pick up an average of 1.85 points per game away from the Olympic Stadium, as opposed to 1.71 at home.

And their attack has been largely the same wherever the venue (2.00 goals per game at home/1.92 GPG away), defensively the team has been far more resilient. It has given up just 1.23 goals per game away from home, compared to 1.43 at home.

And up front, Roma striker Edin Dzeko has certainly enjoyed the friendly confines of the San Siro, scoring three of his four league goals against Milan at Italy’s biggest stadium.

Pick: Roma (+150)

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