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Serie A Matchday 28 Odds & Picks: Will High-Flying Atalanta Keep Rolling?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

Jun 26, 2020 · 7:06 AM PDT

Atalanta vs Real Madrid
Atalanta's Luis Muriel celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the group D Champions League soccer match between Ajax and Atalanta at the Johan Cruyff ArenA in Amsterdam, Netherlands, Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
  • The second full round of fixtures in Italy since the restart begins on Friday with ten matches over the weekend
  • Will the hot and cold streaks continue for Atalanta and Udinese?
  • Read on for the full Matchday 28 odds as well as our best bets for the week

After four makeup games last weekend, Italy’s Serie A returned with a full round of fixtures during the week. With a win by Juventus and Lazio coming up short to Atalanta, the title race has now been extended to four points. Juve will look to push the gap to seven when they kick off the round on Friday against Lecce while Lazio will be desperate to get back on track at home to SPAL on Saturday.

Plenty more intriguing matches are on tap as well with much to be decided with 11 rounds remaining.

When it comes to some early trends, last weekend home teams went 3-1-0 (WDL) in the makeup games, but the trend of road teams winning that we’ve seen in the Bundesliga quickly showed itself in Italy as well. Matchday 27 saw home teams go only 2-2-6. Overall we’ve seen a good amount of scoring too with both teams scoring in 10/14 matches.

For now, let’s dive into this weekend’s action and break down the card with our best bets.

Serie A Matchday 28 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Juventus -2, -2.5 (+105) -750 O 3.5 (EVEN)
Lecce +2, +2.5 (-125) +1800 U 3.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +750 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Brescia 0, +0.5 (-125) +200 O 2.5 (-120)
Genoa 0, -0.5 (+105) +135 U 2.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +240 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cagliari 0, -0.5 (+110) +140 O 2.5 (-120)
Torino 0, +0.5 (-130) +200 U 2.5 (+105)
Draw N/A +220 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Lazio -0.5, -1 (-130) -170 O 2.5, 3 (-120)
Fiorentina +0.5, +1 (+110) +450 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +290 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
AC Milan 0 (EVEN) +170 O 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Roma 0 (-120) +150 U 2.5, 3 (-120)
Draw N/A +240 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Napoli -1.5 (-120) -375 O 2.5, 3 (-125)
SPAL +1.5 (EVEN) +950 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +475 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Sampdoria 0, -0.5 (+105) +135 O 2.5 (-110)
Bologna 0, +0.5 (-125) +200 U 2.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +230 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Sassuolo 0 (-125) +145 O 2.5 (-115)
Verona 0 (+105) +180 U 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +230 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Udinese +1, +1.5 (-125) +575 O 2.5, 3 (-120)
Atalanta -1, -1.5 (+105) -230 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +355 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Parma +1 (-125) +525 O 2.5 (-115)
Inter Milan -1 (+105) -180 U 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +285 N/A

All odds taken June 26

Pick 1: Cagliari vs Torino

It’s tenth vs 14th on Saturday at 1:30 pm EST. While both teams are basically in mid-table limbo, there’s still enough games to go that each should have plenty of motivation.

Cagliari are just seven points back of sixth-place Napoli who occupy the final Europa League place, while Torino are only six points above 18th-place Lecce who own the first relegation position.

Both teams were involved in the makeup games last weekend so both have now already played two matches this past week. For Cagliari, they resumed play with a 2-1 defeat to Verona and escaped with a last-minute win, 1-0, over SPAL on Tuesday. The match looked destined to end drawn until Giovanni Simeone scored in the 93′ minute to see Cagliari escape with all three points.

The win gives Cagliari their first since way back in early December. Since December 5 they had gone winless in 13 matches across all competitions, 12 in Serie A and one in the Coppa Italia.

Their opponents Torino, have been suffering through a similarly poor run of form. Heading into the stoppage they had lost seven-straight matches across all comps. They returned from the league shutdown to a 1-1 draw with Parma to continue the winless run but at least halt the losing the streak. On Tuesday they faced another league struggler in Udinese and finally claimed a victory through Andrea Belotti’s 16′ minute goal.

The goal would hold up to give them the 1-0 win, but it was anything but easy. Udinese held 59-percent of the possession and attacked in waves for much of the rest of the game. Unfortunately for the I Bianconeri, their offense, which has scored just 21 times this season, lacked the punch needed to break through and even the score. The second half though was mainly controlled and dominated by Udinese and a better team would likely have scored.

Is Cagliari a better team? Technically yes. Though their recent results may say otherwise and truthfully neither of these sides are inspiring much confidence right now, and haven’t for some time.

The past three meetings between the two have ended 1-1, 1-1 and 0-0 and I see another low-scoring affair or draw in the cards.

Pick: Draw (+220)

Pick 2: Udinese vs Atalanta

This one kicks off at 1:30 pm EST on Sunday afternoon with 15th-place Udinese hosting fourth-place Atalanta.

Atalanta was part of the game of the week on Wednesday which saw them defeat second-place Lazio. This, despite falling behind early 2-0 just 11 minutes into the match. They responded with one goal themselves in the first half and added two more in the 66′ and 80′ minutes. The win further solidified their spot in the top four, while serving Lazio a huge dent to their title aspirations.

La Dea is now riding a seven-match winless streak across all competitions when you factor in their league and Champions League games. During that streak they’ve outscored opponents 26-11, scoring multiple goals in each game and winning by multiple goals in 4/7. To note though is their inability to keep clean sheets, as they’ve conceded in each of those matches. When looking simply at their Serie A results, they are now 8-2-1 (WDL) in their past 11.

For as many positives as I just rattled off about Atalanta, you can list just as many negatives for Udinese. After losing to Torino on Tuesday, they are now winless in their past nine overall matches, eight in Serie A and one in the Coppa.

I Bianconeri are in complete freefall mode. Forget winning, they’ve scored just four goals total in those past nine matches and have been held entirely off the scoresheet in 6/9. Their 21 goals in Serie A are just one more than SPAL’s 20 for the league-low.

Tuesday’s match against Torino was their best chance to right the ship, facing a Toros side who was also winless in eight overall. Instead, they fell behind early and lost 1-0. As mentioned earlier in this article, they held 59-percent of possession and pressed hard to equalize but simply lacked the firepower to do so.

When these teams met earlier this season it was a runaway win for Atalanta who won 7-1. Previously, La Dea were 2-0, 3-1 and 2-0 winners as well in three head-to-heads.

Atalanta is a neutral fan’s dream. They play beautiful soccer and attack in waves all game long. This often leaves them a bit open in the back and Udinese may be able to nick a goal. However, this one could once again get out of hand. There is no reason not to expect a comfortable Atalanta win and betting them on the spread at -1.5 (+125) looks like great value. A safer play is simply to bet them to win and score at least two goals.

Pick: Atalanta to win & to score Over 1.5 goals (-143)

Pick 3: Sassuolo vs Verona

Another match at 1:30 pm EST on Sunday afternoon, 12th-place Sassuolo hosts ninth-place Hellas Verona, with the teams separated by just five points.

Few teams could’ve asked for a tougher fixture list to come out of the lockdown than Sassuolo who traveled to both Atalanta and Inter Milan in their first two games back. The results as one may have expected didn’t go well as they lost 4-1 and drew 3-3 respectively in those matches.

For Verona, a team still chasing a potential spot in the Europa League, they were 2-1 winners over Cagliari and 2-0 losers to Napoli in their two games back since the stoppage.

The two sides are complete opposites of each other with Verona playing a tighter, more compact style and only scoring 31 and allowing 29 in their 27 matches. Their games have seen the second-fewest OVER 2.5 goal totals cash at just 11-16.

Sassuolo, by contrast, has seen their games hit OVER 2.5 totals at a 21-6 clip, good for second-most. They’ve scored 45 while conceding 46. At eight points above relegation and nine points back of a Europa spot, Roberto De Zerbi’s side area true mid-table side with not much to play for. Their wide-open style has continued since the restart and it’s hard to not see their high-powered attack featuring Francesco Caputo (14 goals) and Domenico Berardi (10) not finding the net on Sunday. However, their open style will likely open up some opportunities for a hungry Verona side to grab one of their own.

Earlier this year Sassuolo were 1-0 winners over Hellas Verona. In fact, a clean sheet has now cashed in four-straight between these two with earlier results reading: Sassuolo 1-0, Hellas Verona 2-0 and Sassuolo 1-0 as well. That said, I see that trend ending this weekend and think both teams can contribute to the scoresheet.

Pick: BTTS Yes (-150)

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