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Argentina vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – World Cup Group C

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Nov 25, 2022 · 11:09 AM PST

Messi after Argentina loss
Nov 22, 2022; Lusail, Qatar; Argentina forward Lionel Messi (10) reacts after losing to Saudi Arabia during a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Lusail Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
  • Following a stunning loss to Saudi Arabia, Argentina are facing a must-win against Mexico
  • La Albiceleste are -185 favorites to win the match in the latest Argentina vs Mexico odds
  • Read below for a preview of Saturday’s big match and our Argentina vs Mexico prediction

Pre-tournament World Cup odds tabbed the Argentines among the favorites to lift the trophy, but after just one match, they are at risk of elimination. Mexico, after drawing with Poland, are under their own pressure as they look to extend their run of last 16 appearances at the World Cup.

Argentina haven’t exited a World Cup at the group stage since 2002. Mexico have made the knockouts in every tournament since they were banned in 1990 and haven’t been knocked out at this stage since they lost all three matches in 1998. These are teams who know each other well, having played each other four times since 2015, but those friendlies are not representative of the high-stakes nature of World Cup play.

Argentina vs Mexico Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Argentina -185
Mexico +550
Draw +300

Odds as of November 24th at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on all World Cup matches.

Argentina haven’t lost to Mexico in their last 10 matches, and have only drawn twice in that period. It is no surprise to see the two-time world champions as odds-on favorites for this match even after their shock defeat a few days ago. Mexico have an implied probability of just 15.4% to win the match.

Over/Under and Spread

The over/under is set at 2.5, with the under marginally favored at a price of -118. The sportsbooks aren’t expecting both teams to score with BTTS priced at +106 at FanDuel, and the spread is unsurprisingly in Argentina’s favor with the favorites priced at +150 at -1.

Argentina vs Mexico Preview

Argentina lacked intensity in their loss to Saudi Arabia. At times careless in possession and sloppy defensively, Lionel Scaloni’s team need to be more focused when they face Mexico on Saturday. The expectation is they will be, of course, in the knowledge a defeat will end their World Cup campaign. There were some positive signs for Scaloni, particularly in the final third, with Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez creating plenty of chances, even if VAR ruled out multiple goals.

Saudi Arabia were held to just three shots. Argentina carried a stellar defensive record into this tournament, and will be expecting to get back on track in game two. Mexico had 11 shots, just four on target, in their draw with Poland, and will hope the return of Raul Jimenez can give them a real focal point in the final third.

Mexico had over 60% possession in their opening match, and we can confidently assume that won’t be the case against Argentina. Perhaps being able to play on the break works in their favor, but Mexico have fared poorly against CONMEBOL nations in 2022, losing to Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia and drawing with Ecuador since June.

Argentina vs Mexico Statistics

Round Of 16 2018 World Cup Performance Round Of 16
27.9 Squad Average Age 28.5
Winners (1978, 1986) Best World Cup Performance Quarter-finals (1970, 1986)
1.55 Goals Scored Per 90 in Qualifying 1.14
0.44 Goals Conceded Per 90 in Qualifying 0.57

Argentina vs Mexico Lineups & Injuries

Argentina Projected Lineup: Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Paredes, De Paul; Di Maria, Gomez; Messi, Martinez.

Argentina Injuries: None.

Mexico Projected Lineup: Ochoa; Sanchez, Moreno, Montes, Gallardo; Herrera, Alvarez, Guardado; Lozano, Jimenez, Vega.

Mexico Injuries: None.

Argentina vs Mexico Prediction

Even after suffering possibly the greatest upset in World Cup history, it is very difficult to look past Argentina here. That defeat doesn’t wipe out their record of 36 matches unbeaten prior to the tournament, and the performance itself was not deserving of a defeat. The link-up between Messi and Martinez is a nightmare for defenders. While Scaloni could tweak the balance of the side, there are no fundamental issues with this team.

Mexico’s firepower is a concern here. There is almost no chance they keep Argentina quiet, yet it is hard to see where their goals are coming from. Argentina are good value at +100 to keep a clean sheet.

The value here is on the favorites to win in a comfortable manner. They have won their last three to nil against Mexico.

Pick: Argentina to win and BTTS/No (+132)

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