Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne Odds & Prediction – Ligue 1 Relegation Playoffs Leg 1

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

May 25, 2022 · 2:00 PM PDT

Monaco vs Marseille
Marseille's Dimitri Payet, centre, in action during the French League One soccer match between Marseille and Saint-Etienne at the Velodrome stadium in Marseille, southern France, Saturday, Aug. 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)
  • It’s Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne on Thursday, May 26 in the first leg of their Ligue 1 relegation playoff
  • Auxerre, who finished third in Ligue 2, is looking to return to the top flight for the first time in a decade
  • We preview the game, look at the Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne odds, and offer some picks below.

It is Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne at the Stade Abbé-Deschamps in the first leg of their Ligue 1 relegation playoff on Thursday, May 26 at 1:00 pm ET.

Auxerre hasn’t been in Ligue 1 since 2011-12 season, so will be looking to end a ten-year absence, while defeat for Saint-Étienne would condemn them to second-tier soccer for the first time since 2003-04.

We preview Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne and offer below some analysis and picks for this massive Ligue 1 relegation playoff.

Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Auxerre +148
Saint-Étienne +185
Draw +210

Odds as of May 25 at Barstool Sportsbook

The bookies find this hard to call with home advantage for Auxerre being just enough to see them kick off as slight favorites at +148, which comes with a 40.32% implied win probability, compared to Saint-Étienne’s +185 with an implied probability of  35.09%. The draw also offers a reasonable return at +210, with an implied probability of 32.26%.

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Over/Under and Spread

Barstool is predicting a tight one with ‘over 2.5 goals’ pitched in plus money at +123, and under 2.5 at -159. Those who envisage a goal-fest should be tempted by the +325 on offer for over 3.5 goals.

If you’re new to this sport and want to know how to bet on soccer then our page offers help on how to bet on this game and others like it.

Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne Prediction

Despite Auxerre missing out on automatic promotion by just a single point – they finished on 74 points compared to second-placed Ajaccio’s 75 – they negotiated a really tricky playoff semifinal against Sochaux to give themselves a great chance of making it to the top flight for the first time since 2003-04.

With Sochaux having seen off the challenge of Paris FC, their tense semifinal against Auxerre finished goalless after 120 minutes, but in the tightest of penalty shoot-outs, Les diplomates emerged victorious after scoring five out of five – Sochaux’s Kitala being the only player to miss.

Last Chance Saloon for Saint-Étienne

The momentum is very much with Auxerre. For Les Verts, it has been a disastrous season, albeit the results on the final day meant they at least had a shot at survival through the playoffs as opposed to getting relegated automatically. The question is, have they enough left in the tank to make the most of this lifeline after earning just 32 points from their 38 regular-season games.

Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne Head-to-Head Stats

21-11-6 [Ligue 2] Regular-season record 7-11-20 [Ligue 1]
61 / 39 Goals for / Goals against 42 / 77
3rd Finishing position 18th
4-0 vs Niort Biggest win 3-1 vs Montpellier
6-0 vs Toulouse Heaviest defeat 5-0 vs Stade Rennais

The Stats Favor Auxerre

Surprisingly, given Saint-Étienne’s rich history, the stats here slightly favor Auxerre who have won eight of the last 23 meetings between these two. Les Verts have won just five, meaning that ten of the 23 have been drawn – a measure of how well these two have been matched over the years.

In their most recent meeting, in the French Cup in February 2017, Les diplomates ran out comfortable 3-0 winners.

Saint-Étienne Looking for Home Comforts on Sunday

Auxerre’s home advantage could be a key factor in this first leg, with Les diplomates losing just two of their last 10 at the Stade Abbe Deschamps, winning six of those. By contrast, Les Verts are without a win in their last seven away games, their last success on the road coming back in February when they beat Clermont Foot 2-1.

As a result, a draw here, or even a single-goal defeat, would be considered okay for Saint-Étienne, whose main aim will to still be in the tie ahead of Sunday’s second leg.

Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne Team Lineups and Injuries

Auxerre Projected Lineup: Léon, Arcus, Jubal, Coeff, Bernard, Touré, Sinayoko, Hein, Sakhi, Autret, Charbonnier.

Auxerre Injuries: Pellenard.

Saint-Étienne Projected Lineup: Bernardoni, Sacko, Mangala, Nade, Thioub, Youssouf, Camara, Trauco, Aouchiche, Bouanga, Khazri.

Saint-Étienne Injuries: None.

Auxerre vs Saint-Étienne Pick

Auxerre simply has to make the most of home advantage in order to give themselves a chance of seeing the job through on Sunday, and their good home form gives them a great chance, as does Saint-Étienne’s poor form on the road.

On that basis, I’m predicting a narrow home win but one that still leaves the tie wide open.

Pick: Auxerre to win (+148) / Auxerre to win 2-1 (+850) 

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