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Barcelona vs Villarreal Odds & Prediction – La Liga Matchday 38

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

May 21, 2022 · 10:02 PM PDT

Villarreal's Arnaut Danjuma
Villarreal's Arnaut Danjuma, right, celebrates after scoring the opening goal during a Champions League quarter-final, first leg soccer match between Villarreal and Bayern Munich at the Ceramica stadium in Villarreal, Spain, Wednesday, April 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Alberto Saiz)
  • Barcelona hosts Villarreal in the final matchday of La Liga on May 22nd at 4 pm ET. Barcelona are +112 moneyline favorites
  • Villarreal face the risk of being jumped by Athletic Bilbao if they fail to win
  • Get the Barcelona vs Villarreal odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The 2021/22 La Liga season concludes on Sunday afternoon with a trio of matches at 4:00 pm ET. As we all know, Real Madrid won their 35th title this season. Currently, Barcelona sit thirteen points behind their El Clasico rivals. Nonetheless, they will remain in second place no matter the result of Barcelona vs Villarreal on Sunday.

In short, it has been a chaotic season for Barcelona. However, this was to be expected after the departure of Lionel Messi. A fifteen-match unbeaten run was the highlight of their season along with the additions of Xavi as manager and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Ferran Torres up top.

Conversely, Villarreal’s season has been one full of great pride. Unai Emery was able to build on his Europa League victory last season with a run to the Champions League semifinals. Now, they must seek victory against Barcelona to avoid falling out of their Conference League spot.

Barcelona vs Villarreal Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Barcelona +112
Villarreal +210
Draw +290

Odds as of May 21st at Barstool Sportsbook.

 

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While the La Liga title odds were decided long ago, there will be plenty of wagering excitement on this match. The three-way moneyline favors the hosts with odds of +112. Considering the fact that Villarreal have lost their last ten La Liga games at the Camp Nou, those odds seem quite valuable.

Over/Under and Spread

Additionally, due to this being the final game of the season for both teams, this game is expected to be full of goals. In fact, the line is at 3.5 goals with the odds on the over sitting at +123. Over the course of their last 15 head-to-head matches, this bet has hit 60% of the time.

The reverse fixture of this match ended 3-1 in Barca’s favor back in November, and it encapsulates Villarreal’s season to an extent. They created 14 shots and even managed to edge the possession battle. Despite accumulating an xG mark of 1.5, their individual errors outweighed their positive performance.

Barcelona vs Villarreal Statistics

Barcelona
VS
Villarreal
1.84 Goals per game 1.65
1.66 Expected goals per game 1.67
0.97 Goals allowed per game 1.00
0.95 Expected goals allowed per game 1.24
64.5% Possession % 57.7%
88.2% Passing % 83.7%
13.6 Shots per game 12.2

Truthfully, it was not a great performance at all from 30-year-old goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli. He was not aggressive enough in grabbing the ball on de Jong’s first goal and he got dribbled around for the second. Moreover, Juan Foyth conceded a penalty for the third goal, adding to the laundry list of individual errors.

Individual errors have been the story of Villarreal’s season so far. Consequently, it was the reason Liverpool were able to knock them out of the Champions League with relative ease.

Villarreal Need to Press Barcelona

Furthermore, the losses of Gerard Moreno and Arnaut Danjuma are huge blows for Villarreal’s attack. Emery was able to exploit Eric Garcia on the right the last time out. But, he will find that more difficult this time around against Jordi Alba.

In turn, I would expect Villarreal to press high and often against Barcelona, especially in the first twenty minutes. If they can nick an early goal at the Camp Nou, they will go into game-management mode.

On the other hand, it is important for Barcelona to win the midfield battle. If they can weather the Yellow Submarine’s storm, they should be able to produce a finale the Blaugrana faithful can enjoy.

Barcelona vs Villarreal Projected Lineups and Injuries

Barcelona Projected Lineup: Ter Stegen, Alba, Lenglet, Araujo, Alves, de Jong, Busquets, Gavi, Torres, Dembele, Aubameyang

Barcelona Injuries & Suspensions: Pedri, Dest, Gonzalez, Roberto, Roberto, Pique, Garcia, & Depay (questionable)

Villarreal Projected Lineup: Rulli, Estupinan, Torres, Albiol, Aurier, Trigueros, Parejo, Capoue, Chukwueze, Lo Celso, Dia

Villarreal Injuries & Suspensions: A. Moreno, G. Moreno, Foyth, Pino (questionable) & Danjuma (questionable)

Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction

The best bet for this match is the Barcelona moneyline with odds of +112. Overall, this pick has serious value and is a no-brainer given their H2H record.

Pick: Barcelona moneyline (+112)

 

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