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Bayern vs Liverpool Odds & Pick: Champions League Round of 16 2nd Leg

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 11:52 AM PDT

Jürgen Klopp
Jürgen Klopp has been a mainstay in Liverpool since 2015. Photo by Thomas Rodenbücher (flickr).
  • Bayern is narrowly favored in their match against Liverpool on Wednesday, March 13th
  • No away goal for Bayern in Leg 1
  • Liverpool are renowned for their counter-attacking style

With the first leg of this matchup ending 0-0, this tie is very much in the balance. Despite Liverpool failing to beat Bayern Munich on an oddly subdued night at their home, Anfield, the Reds will still believe they can qualify for the last eight and the Germans may end up ruing the fact they were unable to snatch an away goal.

Bayern vs Liverpool Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds to Advance
Bayern -0.5 (-118) +117 O 2.5 (+101) -115
Liverpool +0.5 (-102) +220 U 2.5 (-107) -115
DRAW N/A +235 N/A N/A

Odds taken 03/08/19.

The odds say it all really. This is a very very difficult game to call and is the epitome of one being on a “knife edge”. Ultimately, it may come down to who strikes first and if it’s Liverpool, with an away goal, that makes things very difficult for the Germans.

However, the quality of Bayern’s performance on Merseyside should not be underestimated, and their experience of playing high-profile UEFA Champions League games was there for all to see. It was a masterclass in how to subdue a noisy, vociferous crowd and defend against a side renowned for its swashbuckling approach.

Reds on the Counter

Liverpool though will have taken heart from not conceding an away goal and away from home, they have developed a counter-attacking style, where they soak up the pressure and attack with pace and purpose. It’s a style that’s ideally suited to games like this, where Bayern will press and probe in search of a goal, by committing numbers forward.

At Anfield, Bayern were cautious, were careful to not push too many men forward and, in particular, asked their wing-backs – Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba – to curb their natural instinct to attack. As a result, they were solid and offered Liverpool few opportunities and spaces in which to launch their counter-attacks.

No Shots on Target

The downside to this approach meant that Bayern – who are now seven games unbeaten in this season’s Champions League – did not have a single shot on target at Anfield.

The German’s manager, Croatian Niko Kovac, was however happy with the approach and insisted the defensive mindset was the right way to go, although the lack of an away goal could, as we said early, prove costly.

For their part, Liverpool were left frustrated after the Anfield game and were left to rue a few missed chances, with Sadio Mane – who has been in scintillating form – missing their best chance early on. Joel Matip and Mo Salah were also both guilty of missing close-range headers.

On a positive note, they were more than happy with how they dealt with the dangerous Robert Lewandowski, even without inspirational centre-back and captain Virgil van Dijk who is back for the game in Munich and is himself a threat from set-pieces.

The Away Goal So Crucial

As mentioned earlier, much will depend on who gets the opening goal, and the fact Bayern didn’t get an away goal means that Liverpool will still be very much in the game even if the Germans get themselves a two-goal lead. From that position, if Liverpool were to pull level that would be good enough.

Equally, a 1-1 would do the trick for the Merseysiders, and that’s where our money would be going.

Pick: Liverpool 1-1.

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