Expert Picks & Odds to Advance for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta

• Finalists in 2024, Dortmund take on 2024 Europa League Champions Atalanta in the UCL knockout stage
• The sides meet at 3:00 pm ET in Dortmund on Tuesday before the return leg next Wednesday in Italy 
• Check out my Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta picks to advance plus the odds for the two-leg tie

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In what is undoubtedly the pick of the playoff ties, Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund compete for a place in the knockout stages. 

Both sets of fans had to come back down to earth last season after memorable European runs the season prior, with Borussia Dortmund making the Champions League final while Atalanta beat an invincible chasing Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final in Dublin. 

Below, I have a look at the Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta odds to qualify, as well as giving my pick to move onto the round of 16. 

Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Odds to Advance

All sportsbooks have this as a near pick’em but savvy bettors can find slightly better prices if they scour the options. The best odds on Dortmund to advance are -105 at DraftKings (while the shortest odds are -118 at BetMGM). The best odds on Atalanta to advance are -118 at bet365 and Caesars (while the shortest odds are -125 at DraftKings).

Odds as of 12:15 pm ET, February 15th. Check out SBD’s list of the top betting sites with PayPal.

Pick to Advance: Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund

• Borussia Dortmund to Advance (-105 at DraftKings)

It certainly hasn’t been boring for Dortmund this season in Europe, with the German outfit scoring a remarkable 19 goals despite their mid-table finish. They might not be true title contenders according to bookmakers, but going forward, they play like one. 

Only five teams scored more in the group stages: the top three of Arsenal, Liverpool and Bayern Munich, as well as PSG and Real Madrid. Dortmund did have one of the leakiest defences during the group stages, and that will be a real worry, but they will be hoping to make up for that with goals. 

Steady She Goes in Germany

In Germany, there is a common consensus that this is Bayern Munich’s best chance to seriously contend for the title in recent years, meaning that it is one of their best recent squads. The relevance of that statement? Borussia Dortmund are hot on their tail. Niko Kovac’s side may not be considered a big gun this season, but they are sneakily only six points behind a much-fancied Bayern Munich side in the Bundesliga.

Sizzling Form

One reason they are keeping pace with Bayern Munich is their red-hot form. The German Giants have rattled off six league wins on the trot and also looked convincing in their recent win over Inter Milan. They are peaking at the right time, coming into this one. 

Atalanta Woes

When a figure like Gian Piero Gasperini leaves Atalanta after such a positive impact during his near-decade-long spell with the club, there were always bound to be hiccups. Unless you have the good fortune Liverpool had with a new manager bounce last season, more than likely, you are facing a regression in the immediate future. 

This is what has happened, Atalanta. Gasperini opted to leave the club to join Roma, and Atalanta looks as if they have taken a step back this season. They currently sit seventh in Serie A and are seven points behind both Roma and Juventus in the race for a European spot. All this to say, they are not the swashbuckling powerhouse of yesteryear. 

Atalanta have struggled in front of goals this season. They have scored 32 times in 24 league games, which is not going to quite cut it at the upper echelon While in Europe, they scored 10 goals in their 8 games, keeping up their average of slightly better than a goal a game. 

Serhou Guirassy 

Borussia Dortmund forward Serhou Guirassy has struck form at the right time. Although there are reports that he wants to leave the club, he will be there for the remainder of the season. Although his three Champions League goals don’t put him in the top tier of forward threats, he should get plenty of supply over the two games. It appears that Atalanta does not quite have the same option to barrage the opposition for 180 minutes. 

On paper, there is not much to separate these two teams. Yet, one side is very much on an upward curve while the other appears to have stagnated. Borussia Dortmund will give up chances with their leaky defence, but expect their firepower to be enough to get them over the line.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive coverage of the Champions League knockout stage, including:

• Monaco vs PSG Odds to Advance & Picks
• Benfica vs Real Madrid Predictions, Picks & Odds to Qualify
• Galatasaray vs Juventus Picks & Odds to Advance