Upcoming Match-ups

Bundesliga Matchday 28 Odds & Picks: Title Aspirations Hinge on Der Klassiker Showdown

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

May 25, 2020 · 9:33 AM PDT

Bundesliga Matchday 22
Bayern's Corentin Tolisso, right, celebrates with his teammates after scores against Arminia during a German Bundesliga soccer match between Bayern Munich and Arminia Bielefeld at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Monday, Feb. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Andreas Schaad, Pool)
  • The Bundesliga returns to action Tuesday afternoon with midweek play on Matchday 28
  • The title race could be essentially decided when Dortmund host Bayern in Der Klassiker
  • Odds for each game on Matchday 28 plus our best bets for the card follow below

The Bundesliga is back in action for two matchdays this week as the league is offering up some midweek action across Tuesday and Wednesday. The round kicks off right away with a match which may in fact almost decide the title when Dortmund and Bayern Munich kick off play in Der Klassiker.

Both teams were winners this weekend, as were third-place RB Leipzig and fourth-place Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern was one of only two home teams to win this weekend, bring that total to now just three home teams winning since the league resumed. Road teams are now 10-5-3 (WDL). We’ve also seen plenty of goals with both teams scoring in 9/18 matches, OVER 2.5 goal totals cashing at a 12-6 clip and OVER 3.5 totals being an even 9-9.

We now look ahead to the midweek action and try to isolate some best bets.

Bundesliga Matchday 28 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Borussia Dortmund +0.5, +1 (-125) +270 O 3.5 (-110)
Bayern Munich -0.5, -1 (+105) -120 U 3.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +335 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5, -1 (-115) -140 O 3 (-120)
VfL Wolfsburg +0.5, +1 (-105) +335 U 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +305 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Eintracht Frankfurt -0.5 (EVEN) EVEN O 2.5, 3 (-120)
Freiburg +0.5 (-120) +260 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +280 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Werder Bremen +0.5, +1 (-130) +315 O 3 (+105)
Borussia Monchengladbach -0.5, -1 (+110) -125 U 3 (-125)
Draw N/A +300 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
RB Leipzig -1.5 (-105) -280 O 3, 3.5 (-120)
Hertha Berlin +1.5 (-115) +700 U 3, 3.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +450 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Augsburg -0.5 (-105) -110 O 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Paderborn +0.5 (-115) +280 U 2.5, 3 (-120)
Draw N/A +280 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fortuna Dusseldorf 0 (-115) +160 O 2.5 (-115)
FC Schalke 0 (-105) +170 U 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +245 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hoffenheim 0, -0.5 (+105) +135 O 3 (-115)
FC Koln 0, +0.5 (-125) +190 U 3 (-105)
Draw N/A +265 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Union Berlin 0, -0.5 (-105) +125 O 2.5, 3 (+105)
Mainz 0, +0.5 (-115) +215 U 2.5, 3 (-125)
Draw N/A +255 N/A

All odds taken May 24

Pick 1: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Not only the clear top match of the week but also the match that very likely could decide the title race in the Bundesliga takes place on Tuesday at 12:30 pm EST. As the only match taking place at 12:30 prior to the other matches later in the afternoon and Wednesday, all eyes will be on this one.

The meeting between these two is known as Der Klassiker, the (German Clasico) and will have major implications on the line on Tuesday. Bayern, currently first in the table with 61 points, lead second-place Borussia Dortmund by four points who have 57.

Both sides were winners this weekend but were made to work for it. Bayern hosted Eintracht Frankfurt and scored early just 17 minutes in and led 2-0 at the half and 3-0 soon after the restart. And while it looked like it would be clear-sailing the rest of the way, they let up just a little and two quick goals by Martin Hintenregger brought Frankfurt back to within one with goals at 52′ and 55′.

The comeback was put to bed though with Canadian Alphonso Davies scoring a few minutes later and Hinterregger being responsible for an own goal soon after, giving Bayern the 5-2 win.

For Dortmund, they played out a much closer 2-0 win away to Wolfsburg. Raphael Guerreiro gave BVB the lead with a 32′ goal, which would be the only scoring until Achraf Hakimi doubled the advantage in the 78′ minute. Wolfsburg did actually hold the advantage in attempts, but Dortmund was able to score on both of and their only shots on target.

Ten matches have passed since fewer than at least two goals have been scored in a Der Klassiker meeting. That being 1-0 back in 2016. But in the ten meetings since, two and three-goal matches happened once each, while four goals were scored three times, five goals scored four times and six goals scored once. That’s OVER 2.5 goal totals cashing at a 9-1 clip and OVER 3.5 totals cashing at 8-2.

Despite all these goals both teams scoring has only happened in six of those ten matches. Home teams have also usually had the advantage in winning seven of ten. How an empty Signal Iduna Park will impact the result is yet to be seen. But surely the absence of the Yellow Wall won’t help Dortmund’s chances.

Three of the four points Dortmund are behind Bayern come from their earlier defeat this season when they went to Allianz Arena and fell 4-0 to Munich. Bayern jumped on the board early with a Robert Lewandowski goal just 17 minutes into the match, before they added to the lead at 47′, a second by Lewandowski at 76′ and gained an own goal in the 80′ to stretch the lead to four. Bayern were by far the better side on the day, shutting down Dortmund’s attack and putting on a tactical masterclass.

Can they completely shut out Dortmund again? I don’t think so. Dortmund may not be able to pull off the upset here, but they need to empty the chamber and go for the win which should result in goals. While Marco Reus looks to miss out on this one, Jadon Sancho should be fresh as he started on the bench this weekend. Dortmund could also be sweating the fitness of defender Mats Hummels who limped off with an Achilles injury this weekend—though reports are he will play.

I expect a high-scoring game and will bet goals from both sides.

Pick: Both teams to score & OVER 2.5 goals (-188), or better value — Both teams to score & OVER 3.5 goals (+110)

Pick 2: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach

One of three 2:30 pm EST matches on Tuesday, 17th-place Werder Bremen host fifth-place Monchengladbach. Despite the gap in placings in the table, the match has equally large implications for both sides. Gladbach will be looking to regain their place in the top four and a Champions League spot, currently sitting one-point back of Leverkusen. While Bremen are three points back of the relegation playoff spot and six away from safety.

Werder did their part to close the gap on reaching safety this weekend. After looking terrible last week in losing 4-1 to Leverkusen, Werder got an early goal from Leonardo Bittencourt just 19 minutes into their match away to Freiburg this weekend. Despite holding only 39-percent of possession and losing out in most statistical categories, the goal would prove to be enough to hold onto the full three points.

Though after a late Werder Bremen red card, Freiburg nearly tied the match in the 89′ minute but had the goal called off by VAR for offside.

Borussia Monchengladbach were not as lucky this weekend as they fell 3-1 at home to Leverkusen and flipped spots in the table with Bayer overtaking them.

Gladbach fell behind early when Kai Havertz scored just seven minutes in. Gladbach’s top scorers were involved in tying the match at one early into the second half through a goal scored by Marcus Thuram and assisted by Alassane Plea. But Havertz would score his second minutes later and Leverkusen put the nail in the coffin late-on with CB Sven Bender scoring his first of the year.

Prior to Werder Bremen’s weekend win it had been some time since they tasted success in the league with no wins in seven and ten losses in the past 12. But it’s also been a long time since they’ve had any success versus Gladbach. Their last win over Borussia came back in 2015 during the DFB-Pokal. Since then, Gladbach have gone on an undefeated streak of eight matches between the teams, winning six and drawing two.

Overall eight of their past ten matches have seen both teams score and the average goals scored between the teams in those ten matches have been 3.8.

Last season Gladbach won 3-1 in Bremen and the teams drew 1-1 in Gladbach.

Their most recent meeting came in November this season when Gladbach were 3-1 winners at home. The result may have been even worse than it looked for Bremen, as Gladbach led 3-0 just prior to the hour-mark and Bremen’s lone goal didn’t come until the 93′ minute and not until after a late Gladbach red card in the 87′.

 

Look, Bremen may have won, but a close win over a so-so Freiburg side playing without their fans is nothing to get too excited about. They are still dreadful and had allowed multiple goals in each of their previous seven matches. The clean sheet was only their second of the year.

Gladbach have the firepower to score here and likely win. Road teams have been cashing in the Bundesliga’s return and you can get the much better side at -125 odds or for them to win and score multiple goals at +105.

Pick: Gladbach to win and score OVER 1.5 goals (+105)

Pick 3: Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg

Two teams among the top six meet at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday afternoon. Bayer Leverkusen are on 53 points and sit in fourth place and will be looking to maintain their spot in Champions League placings just one point ahead of fifth-place Gladbach. While Wolfsburg remains in the last Europa League spot in sixth.

Despite losing on the weekend, Wolfsburg still maintained a two-point lead on each of their closest challengers as both Freiburg and Schalke fell to defeats.

Only four teams have come out of the break with back-to-back victories and Bayer Leverkusen are one of them with a 4-1 win over Werder Bremen followed by a 3-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach, and both coming on the road.

Leverkusen’s form has been superb both pre and post-coronavirus league shutdown as they’re now undefeated across 12 games in all competitions. That includes matches in the league, DFB-Pokal and Europa League. Even more impressive is that 11 of those 12 matches have been wins. Go back a little further and they have just one loss in 16 overall competitions. Their one downfall during this streak may be their inability to tighten things up on their backline as they’ve kept only three clean sheets in those 16 matches.

And when Leverkusen is rolling they really get going. During that 16-game stretch, in their 14 wins they’ve scored at least twice in all of them. In fact, they’ve scored three or more goals in eight of those games too. In their past five games in the league, Cup and UEL, they’ve scored multiple goals in five-straight—all wins, and have outscored opponents 17-4.

With two goals on Saturday, Kai Havertz has now taken the sole position of leading goalscorer for Leverkusen. Havertz bagged a brace for the second straight game, giving him the team lead with ten goals. He’s also now had either a goal or assist in six-straight games.

Prior to Saturday’s 2-0 home loss to Dortmund, Wolfsburg had been on a strong run of form themselves. Die Wölfe entered the weekend undefeated in seven in the Bundesliga at 4-3-0. They had scored multiple goals in five of those matches but only kept clean sheets in two. A return of 16 goals scored though should give us reason to expect a high-scoring affair on Tuesday.

Wolfsburg have struggled though against top-ranked teams this season. Of their ten wins, only two have come against teams ranked ninth or higher. Those being a win over ninth-placed Hoffenheim and over fifth-placed Gladbach.

All signs seem to point towards another win for Leverkusen. Die Werkself have also won three of the past four between the sides in the Bundesliga including winning each of the past two—3-0 last season in January and 2-0 this season in November.

Both teams are in strong form and both rank in the top six in shots per game. Leverkusen will likely carry the bulk of the possession as they are second in the Bundesliga in average possession at 59.6-percent and even stronger at BayArena at 61.5-percent. I think Leverkusen stays hot with the win (-140) but for better value my bet is Leverkusen to win and both teams to score.

Pick: Leverkusen win and BTTS (+215)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.