Bundesliga Relegation Odds Tighten Between Mainz, Dusseldorf and Werder Bremen

• As the 2019/20 Bundesliga season enters its final few rounds, the relegation battle heats up
• Paderborn look to have gone, but it’s two from five for the remaining places
• We’ll look at the form and remaining fixtures, and try and find some value for the bettors

With just five rounds of fixtures left in the German Bundesliga, there’s a battle developing at the foot of the table to avoid relegation or the threat of a playoff. For Mainz, in particular, this is a worrying time after a poor restart to the campaign and, in the space of three weeks, their odds have shortened from +300 to +175.

Werder Bremen and Dusseldorf, by contrast, have made good restarts, and so, while Paderborn appears done, we’ll take a closer look and see if we can predict where this is heading.

Bundesliga Relegation Odds

Odds taken on June 02.

Paderborn Gone But Bremen on the Charge

Let’s start by getting the obvious one out of the way. As mentioned in the intro, Paderborn are gone. The small club from North Rhine-Westphalia did brilliantly to win promotion last season but, with such limited resources, have won just four times all season and haven’t picked up a win since January 25. It’s been a brave effort but there is no sign of a late rally.

The opposite, however, can be said of Werder Bremen who, prior to the lockdown, looked to be on their way out of the top flight. Die Werderaner clearly made excellent use of the break and since the restart has won twice and drawn once in their four games. Their only setback came in their restart opener against Bayer Leverkusen, but since then it’s been positive results all the way. In doing so they have pulled themselves back into the mix and with a genuine chance of survival.

Momentum is everything at this stage of the season, and Bremen have it in plentiful supply. Prior to the enforced break, Florian Kohfeldt’s team had won just four times, but have increased that by 50 percent in the space of four rounds of games. They have a chance, especially as they have a vital game in hand on all the teams around them.

Mainz on a Worrying Slide

For Mainz 05, the restart has been far more troublesome and they find themselves just one place and one point above the relegation zone and, crucially, just three points above 17th placed Bremen, who have played one game less. Manager Achim Beierlorzer has a massive job on his hands to reinvigorate a team that hasn’t won a game since February 29 – that against Paderborn – and which has the worst goals-against column in the league.

Taiwo #Awoniyi: 💬

"This is a huge disappointment for all of us. We should have decided the outcome of the game in the first half but we didn't take our chances."#UpTheMainz #M05TSG 0-1 pic.twitter.com/qE5qQAxZL3

— Mainz 05 English (@Mainz05en) May 30, 2020

With away games coming up against Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund this is a critical time for Die Nullfünfer who simply has to get something from the home game sandwiched between these two, against Augsburg on June 14. Three defeats on the bounce will have then in a tailspin and with a visit from Werder Bremen on June 20 upcoming, they really are on the brink.

Fortuna’s Good Start Hits a Blip

For Fortuna Dusseldorf, the restart had been going well, and they too had shown signs of a timely recovery but did suffer a blow at the weekend when they were hammered 5-0 away at Bayern Munich. Until that point, they were unbeaten since the restart – a run that saw them record a fine 2-1 win over Schalke – but it’s the size of the defeat in Munich rather than the defeat itself that may impact how they approach the run-in.

If Fortuna can quickly clear their heads and put that result behind them, there is still a route for them out of the muddle, but if it impacts on the team’s confidence, they remain in trouble. In their favor is they have two massive home games coming up – against Hoffenheim at the weekend and then Borussia Dortmund a week later. If they can muster a win over Hoffenheim and, maybe, pick up a point against Dortmund then the great escape is still on. Defeat against Hoffenheim, and it looks a long road to safety.

👉 Match report from Borussia-Park — a hard day at the office for Union after Wednesday’s exploits. A dominant win for @borussia_en in the end. #BMGFCU | #fcunion | 4-1https://t.co/Dv2J2pSi6B

— 1. FC Union Berlin (English) (@fcunion_en) May 31, 2020

Union in Freefall

Two other teams who can’t yet be ignored in the relegation shake-up are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin, both of whom have 31 points and are just four points clear of Dusseldorf in 16th. While Augsburg has managed to pick up a win since the restart, Union is on a terrible run of form and, like Mainz, appears to be in freefall and has picked up just a single league point since February. Upcoming games against Schalke, Cologne, and Paderborn are of the make-or-break variety and with such poor form, they do look vulnerable.

Prediction: 16th: Union Berlin, 17th: Mainz 05, 18th: Paderborn

Pick: Union Berlin to be relegated (+2000)