Canada vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying
- After a 1-1 draw at Azteca Stadium last month, Mexico visits a snowy Edmonton for a rematch with Canada on Tuesday
- Mexico is tied with the US for first in standings, while Canada is still unbeaten, one point back
- Read on for betting odds, a full preview, and the best bet for this CONCACAF World Cup qualifying match
Certainly still smarting from a third straight loss to the United States on Friday, El Tri visit a snowy Edmonton for their rematch with Canada on Tuesday, November, 16th, with first place in the final CONCACAF World Cup qualifying group up for grabs.
Both teams seem to be on course for automatic qualification, but neither is likely to want to leave things to chance. Canada comes into Tuesday’s match riding a two-game winning streak, while Gerardo Martino’s men enter the game after suffering their first loss in their seven qualifying games.
Canada vs Mexico Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs Mexico | CAN +0.5 (-195) | MEX -0.5 (+140) | CAN +190 | MEX +145 DRAW +200 |
Ov 2.5 (+130) | Un 2.5 (-165) |
Odds as of November 15th at DraftKings
Canada Eyes Historic Opportunity
Halfway to a first World Cup finals berth in 35 years, Canada could vault Mexico into first place with a win here and a US loss or tie in Jamaica. Head coach John Herdman has taken charge of what appears to be a golden generation of Canadian talent, and his players have certainly responded so far in World Cup qualifying.
Jonathan David, who helped Lille to the French title last season with 13 Ligue 1 goals, scored the only goal of the game on Friday as Canada clawed out a 1-0 win over Costa Rica. Importantly for Herdman, it was Canada’s third clean sheet in their seven qualifiers. The team’s four goals against are tied with the US for the best defensive record in this final qualifying group.
Herdman Has All Hands On Deck
The Canadian head coach has the luxury of picking from a virtually full-strength squad for this pivotal game against Mexico. Bayern Munich left-back Alphonso Davies will once again be handed an attacking role in his hometown, likely alongside David, while the likes of Besiktas forward Cyle Larin and Ike Ugbo, handed his debut on Friday off the bench, will give Herdman extra attacking options should a Plan B be required.
🇨🇦 Jonathan David (21) brought his club form to Edmonton v. Costa Rica:
☑️ 83 minutes
⚽️ Matchwinning goal
🚀 2 shots
🔑 2 chances created
🔀 2/2 dribbles son
🤩 1-0 win11 goals in his last 15 games for club and country. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9w0ZGpN69E
— Football Wonderkids (@fbwonderkids) November 13, 2021
Defensively, Red Star’s Milan Borjan returned to the squad for Friday’s win after missing the previous international window, and he will continue to marshal likely unchanged back four.
BORJAN REACTION:
"Amazing win. Big respect to my teammates, the guys gave their maximum."#CANMNT #WCQ #ForCanada pic.twitter.com/ibZouRIev7
— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) November 13, 2021
El Tri Eclipsed
For the first time in what seems like forever, Mexico is having its CONCACAF supremacy challenged. Having already lost the Gold Cup and Nations League finals last summer, Martino’s team is in danger of seeing what looked to be a smooth path to Qatar turn into something of a rocky road.
A loss here, combined with a Panama win against El Salvador, would actually drop Mexico into the fourth spot and out of the automatic qualification positions, albeit with six games remaining.
Martino regarding the hostility that has surrounded El Tri since last Friday night:
"We can't react like it's the end of the world after our first (WCQ) loss."
— Felipe Cárdenas (@FelipeCar) November 16, 2021
Araujo At the Ready
While Mexico will have to cope with the absence of Hector Moreno for this match, returning to Monterrey after picking up an injury on Friday, it will have the benefit of returning Nestor Araujo to its backline. The Celta Vigo defender missed the loss to the States through suspension, and his return will be timely given the attacking options Canada has at its disposal.
This is exactly what #CanadaSoccer wanted, and exactly what @miseleccionmxEN feared when Edmonton was named host for these WCQ’s https://t.co/Ru7V4cuNiR
— Footy Prime The Podcast (@footy_prime) November 16, 2021
Upfront, Wolves striker Raul Jimenez should again be the focal point for the attack, with support from Napoli forward Hirving Lozano. Behind them, Hector Herrera and Edson Alvarez should be in contention to occupy the middle of the park and help set a solid foundation for the El Tri offense.
Canada vs Mexico World Cup Qualifying Stats
| 3-0-4 | Record | 4-1-2 |
| 11 | Goals For | 10 |
| 4 | Goals Against | 5 |
| WWDDW | Form | LWWDD |
History On Mexico’s Side
While Canada will benefit from home-field advantage in Mexico, it will also have the weight of history going up against it on Tuesday. Canada hasn’t beaten El Tri since 2000 at the Gold Cup, 11 games ago, and it has lost seven of those games.
In fact, Canada has just three wins against its southern opponent in 37 tries, and it promises to be a tough battle to turn that around here.
Best bet: Draw (+200)
For the last 20 years, Paul Attfield has worked in sports media. Starting out in his native Britain with the likes of The Independent, he eventually switched continents, with his work appearing in the likes of the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post and Yahoo Sports since.
