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Canada vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer

Nov 16, 2021 · 6:52 AM PST

Canada vs Mexico
Canada's Charles-Andreas Brym, right, and Mexico's Raul Jimenez battle for the ball during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, at Azteca stadium in Mexico City, Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
  • After a 1-1 draw at Azteca Stadium last month, Mexico visits a snowy Edmonton for a rematch with Canada on Tuesday
  • Mexico is tied with the US for first in standings, while Canada is still unbeaten, one point back
  • Read on for betting odds, a full preview, and the best bet for this CONCACAF World Cup qualifying match

Certainly still smarting from a third straight loss to the United States on Friday, El Tri visit a snowy Edmonton for their rematch with Canada on Tuesday, November, 16th, with first place in the final CONCACAF World Cup qualifying group up for grabs.

Both teams seem to be on course for automatic qualification, but neither is likely to want to leave things to chance. Canada comes into Tuesday’s match riding a two-game winning streak, while Gerardo Martino’s men enter the game after suffering their first loss in their seven qualifying games.

Canada vs Mexico Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Canada vs Mexico CAN +0.5 (-195) | MEX -0.5 (+140) CAN +190 | MEX +145
DRAW +200
Ov 2.5 (+130) | Un 2.5 (-165)

Odds as of November 15th at DraftKings

Canada Eyes Historic Opportunity

Halfway to a first World Cup finals berth in 35 years, Canada could vault Mexico into first place with a win here and a US loss or tie in Jamaica. Head coach John Herdman has taken charge of what appears to be a golden generation of Canadian talent, and his players have certainly responded so far in World Cup qualifying.

Jonathan David, who helped Lille to the French title last season with 13 Ligue 1 goals, scored the only goal of the game on Friday as Canada clawed out a 1-0 win over Costa Rica. Importantly for Herdman, it was Canada’s third clean sheet in their seven qualifiers. The team’s four goals against are tied with the US for the best defensive record in this final qualifying group.

Herdman Has All Hands On Deck

The Canadian head coach has the luxury of picking from a virtually full-strength squad for this pivotal game against Mexico. Bayern Munich left-back Alphonso Davies will once again be handed an attacking role in his hometown, likely alongside David, while the likes of Besiktas forward Cyle Larin and Ike Ugbo, handed his debut on Friday off the bench, will give Herdman extra attacking options should a Plan B be required.

Defensively, Red Star’s Milan Borjan returned to the squad for Friday’s win after missing the previous international window, and he will continue to marshal likely unchanged back four.

El Tri Eclipsed

For the first time in what seems like forever, Mexico is having its CONCACAF supremacy challenged. Having already lost the Gold Cup and Nations League finals last summer, Martino’s team is in danger of seeing what looked to be a smooth path to Qatar turn into something of a rocky road.

A loss here, combined with a Panama win against El Salvador, would actually drop Mexico into the fourth spot and out of the automatic qualification positions, albeit with six games remaining.

Araujo At the Ready

While Mexico will have to cope with the absence of Hector Moreno for this match, returning to Monterrey after picking up an injury on Friday, it will have the benefit of returning Nestor Araujo to its backline. The Celta Vigo defender missed the loss to the States through suspension, and his return will be timely given the attacking options Canada has at its disposal.

Upfront, Wolves striker Raul Jimenez should again be the focal point for the attack, with support from Napoli forward Hirving Lozano. Behind them, Hector Herrera and Edson Alvarez should be in contention to occupy the middle of the park and help set a solid foundation for the El Tri offense.

Canada vs Mexico World Cup Qualifying Stats

3-0-4 Record 4-1-2
11 Goals For 10
4 Goals Against 5

History On Mexico’s Side

While Canada will benefit from home-field advantage in Mexico, it will also have the weight of history going up against it on Tuesday. Canada hasn’t beaten El Tri since 2000 at the Gold Cup, 11 games ago, and it has lost seven of those games.

In fact,  Canada has just three wins against its southern opponent in 37 tries, and it promises to be a tough battle to turn that around here.

Best bet: Draw (+200)

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