- Oddsmakers offering some props on which domestic league will provide the UCL winner
- The EPL pair of Man City and Liverpool are shortest odds at +140 for a Champions League win
- Serie A teams are the longest shot for the trophy
Oddsmakers have opened some interesting UEFA Champions League props for the big leagues vs the field, where punters can bet on which European domestic league the winners of this season’s competition will (or won’t) come from.
We’re going to pull apart the props on offer in the hope of finding some good value.
UCL – PSG / Lyon vs Field Odds
|Field to Win CL||-1000|
|PSG or Lyon to Win CL||+600|
Odds taken on Dec. 19
This is an interesting one, particularly as I’ve had a feeling since the start of the season that this could be PSG’s time. The club’s owners, Qatar Sports Investments, have pumped money into the club on a scale only matched by Sheihk Mansour’s funding of Manchester City, and have had a Champions League trophy on their wish list for some time.
With Mbappé and Neymar both fit, healthy and scoring, the Parisiens are better equipped than ever to go toe-to-toe with the big names in this competition. A round-of-16 clash with Borussia Dortmund, with the second-leg in Paris, offers them a winnable route to the last eight and from there anything is possible.
This bet boils down to PSG; Lyon won’t be winning the UCL this season.
UCL – Man City / Liverpool vs Field Odds
|Field to Win CL||-170|
|City or Liverpool to Win CL||+140|
In terms of a double-chance, this one – arguably along with the La Liga pairing – offers punters the best bet. Both City and Liverpool have a chance of going all the way this season, with City, in particular, being well set for an assault on a competition that has so far eluded them. Like PSG, City has owners who are expecting and demanding a return on their investment.
City’s relatively lukewarm attempt to make it three EPL titles in a row – Liverpool have a 14-point lead – may ultimately increase their desire to make it a Champions League first, and so Guardiola’s men are in with a real chance.
For, Liverpool, the reigning UCL champions, it’s the case of a very heavy workload, which at the moment involves FIFA’s World Club Championship in Qatar, but they can never be written off, such is their quality.
UCL – Juventus / Napoli vs Field Odds
|Field to Win CL||-1500|
|Juve or Napoli to Win CL||+750|
Anyone wanting a piece of the +750 here will be heartened by the form of Cristiano Ronaldo who, aged 34, is looking as sharp and as sprightly as ever. Crucially, he’s also full of goals, which makes Juve dangerous opponents for anyone. While the Italian champions may not be among the favorites to win this, Ronaldo has made a career out of winning trophies almost single-handedly – see Portugal winning Euro 2016 – and so with some very talented players around him in the black and white and a rock-solid defense, the Old Lady simply cannot be ruled out.
Napoli have had a difficult season, so can be ruled out of this equation, but +750 offers value for those who like a longshot.
UCL – Bayern Munich / Borussia Dortmund vs Field Odds
|Field to Win CL||-1000|
|Bayern or Dortmund to Win CL||+600|
It’s hard to see Dortmund getting beyond the quarterfinals, even if they do negotiate a route past PSG in the round-of-16, so the question here is, do Bayern have enough to go all the way?
The German champions have failed to win this competition since 2013 – when they beat Dortmund in an all-German final – but have been on fire so far this season, which included a 7-2 demolition of Tottenham in London.
Bayern have youth, vibrancy and a squad of excellent technicians, capable of going deep in this tournament. They also have, in Serge Gnabry, a prolific goalscorer who looks capable of scoring every time he crosses the white line.
UCL – Barcelona / Real Madrid vs Field Odds
|Field to Win CL||-500|
|Barca or Real Madrid to Win CL||+375|
Aside from City and Liverpool, this is the only other realistic double-chance bet. Both teams have a genuine chance of winning the trophy this season and have recent experience of lifting it – Barca in 2016 and Real in 2018. Both genuine contenders.
Barca are still hurting following last season’s semifinal exit at the hands of Liverpool, when their 3-0 lead from the first leg at the Camp Nou was wiped out in a 4-0 for the Merseysiders at Anfield. That chastening experience will make them doubly determined to go all the way this season.
Real also have a realistic chance of winning this season’s tournament, even minus Ronaldo, and while Zinedine Zidane’s team don’t have the aura of their Galacticos teams of the past, they have more than enough quality to go all the way.
My pick: Barca or Real Madrid to win UCL (+375)