Champions League Picks & Predictions for Jan 21, Including Chelsea vs Pafos, Marseille vs Liverpool
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- Another nine games are on the UEFA Champions League schedule on Wednesday
- Three EPL sides are in action today (Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle)
- See my top Champions League picks and predictions today after +3.1-unit performance yesterday
After yesterday’s wildly successful salvo into Champions League picks (+3.1 units on 1-unit wagers), I’m back with nine more picks for Wednesday’s nine-game UCL slate.
Festivities don’t start quite as early on Wednesday with Galatasaray/Atletico Madrid and Qarabag vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicking off proceedings at 12:45 pm ET, followed by seven more matches at 3:00 pm ET.
The table below sets out my top Champions League picks today – one for each game – alongside the sportsbook currently offering the best odds on each pick. Under the table, I dive into my reasoning for a couple marquee predictions.
Champions League Picks & Predictions (Wednesday, Jan 21)
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Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid Pick: Galatsaray +0.5 (-145 at DraftKings)
Galatasaray (3-0-3, +0 GD) has acquitted itself decently through six matches, earning quality victories over Liverpool (1-0 home) and Bodo/Glimt (3-1 home), i.e. the same team that just took down Man City yesterday. The only points they have dropped at home came in a 1-0 setback to Royale Union SG, a game in which they controlled 66% of pssession and fired 15 shots at goal.
Atletico (4-0-2, +3 GD) hasn’t been bad by any means, but they have a -4 goal difference in their UCL away matches, thanks to a 4-0 setback at leaders Arsenal. Their only road victory was a somewhat-underserved 3-2 win at Dutch side PSV, when they surrendered 2.67 xGF and generated 2.23 xGF.
I firmly believe the wrong team is favored here and love the value on Galatasaray gaining at least a point at -145.
Qarabag vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Qarabag to Win (+210 at Caesars)
Neither Qarabag (2-1-3, -3 GD) nor Eintracht Frankfurt (1-1-4, -8 GD) is a threat in the Champions League winner odds, but the Azerbaijani team has been better through the first six matchdays. They lost their last home match to Ajax (4-2), despite holding a 2-1 lead in the 79th minute. Their first two home matches were a win over FC Copenhagen (2-0) and an impressive draw with Chelsea (2-2). They were full value for all three points, finishing with more xGF in both matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt started the UCL campaign with a 5-1 (home) victory over Galatasaray and it’s been an unmitigated disaster since, getting outscored 15-3 in the last five. That includes embarrassing 5-1 and 3-0 loss to Liverpool and Atalanta, respectively, both at home. The Germans have just one win in their last eight matches across all competitions, getting outscored 19 to 12 in that span.
Take the home team to pick up the full three points at significant plus-money against a reeling opponent making a long and difficult trip.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
