Upcoming Match-ups

Euro 2020 Qualifying Matchday 5 Best Bets: Value on England & Turkey

England's Harry Kane
Harry Kane's England are huge favorites over Bulgaria on Thursday. Photo By Антон Зайцев (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Value to be had amongst the favorites as mismatches abound in UEFA EURO 2020 qualifiers
  • England (-1400) offer some value on spreads and over/under totals against struggling Bulgaria
  • Germany (+100) hosts Netherlands in heavyweight Group C tilt between two powerhouses

Matchday 5 of UEFA’s EURO 2020 qualifiers is upon us, and there are a host of games with some intriguing value over at Bovada.

While powerhouses like England, Germany and Spain will draw most of the wagered money, it’s important not to overlook some of the smaller nations and matchups — there is value there too.

An efficient team like Iceland, home against Moldova, should be an automatic to cover the spread; Finland and Greece offer enticing odds all the way around in their matchup; on the island of Cyprus, the hosts will look to take down a resilient Kazakhstan team.

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from Matchday 5.

England vs. Bulgaria Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at Bovada Total
England -2.5 (-130) -1400 O 3.5 (+100)
Bulgaria +2.5 (+105) +3000 U 3.5 (-135)
Draw N/A +1000 N/A

*All odds taken 09/04/19

If there were a trophy for consistent qualification performances, England would win it running away virtually every cycle.

While the Three Lions have not translated their qualifying dominance into silverware this century, they have definitely become the pinnacle of consistency. That appears set to continue this time around, as England (2-0-0) has already thrashed their toughest competition in Group A — the Czech Republic — 5-0.

Entertaining last-place Bulgaria (0-2-2) at Wembley this week, the Three Lions should be automatic multi-goal winners; their visitors conceded three times at home against Kosovo earlier in qualifying, and have not kept a clean sheet in eight matches.

Pick: O 3.5 (+100)

Israel vs. North Macedonia Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at Bovada Total
Israel -0.5 (-125) -120 O 2 (-145)
North Macedonia +0.5 (+105) +395 U 2 (+120)
Draw N/A +245 N/A

An important game in Group G pits Israel against North Macedonia (formerly just Macedonia) in Beersheba, as the former continues to jockey with Austria and Slovenia for positioning behind first-place Poland.

With away trips still to come against both Austria and Slovenia, Israel will be desperate to grab all three points at home against an inferior, out-of-form Macedonian side which was hammered 4-1 by Austria in its last outing.

Israel should be able to break down its visitors with Tomer Hemed (Charlton) and Moanes Dabour (Sevilla) both in the squad.

Pick: Israel (-120)

Turkey vs Andorra odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at Bovada Total
Turkey -3.5 (+105) -4000 O 3.5 (-130)
Andorra +3.5 (-125) +5000 U 3.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +1600 N/A

After some time spent lost in the woods, Turkey appears to be returning to its status as a regular contender to qualify for major tournaments.

Despite a loss away to Iceland, Senol Gunes’ group has scored convincing wins over Moldova, Albania and (most impressively) group co-leaders France.

The result of Saturday’s match is not in doubt — Andorra has lost all four of its Group H games thus far, and has failed to score in any — but it’s the spread which is interesting. Turkey’s wins have all been sound: 4-0 (Moldova), 2-0 (Albania), 2-0 (France). Andorra’s losses have been similar: 0-4 (France), 0-2 (Iceland), 0-3 (Albania), 0-1 (Moldova).

The key difference on Matchday 5, however, is the environment: Turkey is legendary, and three of Andorra’s four defeats have come at home — leaving the minnows especially vulnerable as they venture into hostile territory with a giant bullseye on their backs.

Pick: Turkey -3.5 (+105)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.