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FC Porto vs Benfica Odds & Prediction: Portuguese Super Cup

Carlos Verde

by Carlos Verde in Soccer

Dec 22, 2020 · 7:33 AM PST

Porto's Pepe
Porto's Pepe gestures during the Champions League group C soccer match between Manchester City and FC Porto at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020. (Martin Rickett/Pool via AP)
  • Portugal’s two biggest clubs collide on Wednesday (3:45 pm EST) in the rescheduled Supertaça Candido de Oliveira (Portuguese Super Cup) as Benfica takes on Porto at a neutral site in Aveiro
  • Typically played at the outset of the season in August, COVID-19 forced the Portuguese Federation to delay the match to the month of December for the first time since 1991
  • Get a breakdown of both clubs, Wednesday’s odds and a few value picks below

In a traditional year, Portugal’s Super Cup would be played in August between the respective winners of the country’s league and cup from the previous season.

2020 has been anything but a traditional year, and in keeping with that trend, the Supertaça will be played on the week of Christmas for the first time in its 42-year history — though the competing clubs are familiar faces.

Porto has won the competition 21 times, and appeared in an incredible 30 of its 41 finals (73-percent); Benfica holds an 8-12 record in its 20 final appearances but is a perfect 3-0 since 2016.

Both sides have had passable starts to the Primeira Liga season and remain alive in their respective continental competitions — Porto facing a tough Champions League draw in Juventus, Benfica with a tricky tie against Arsenal in the Europa League.

Porto vs Benfica Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Porto vs Benfica POR pk (+112)  | BEN pk (-148) POR +190  | BEN +132 | DRAW +220 Ov 2.5 (-110) | Un 2.5 (-118)

Odds taken Dec 21 at DraftKings

There are a number of interesting plays on the table especially considering Porto’s recent cup final history — under the same manager, Sergio Conceicao, to boot.

Benfica being favored is unsurprising as the consensus says Jorge Jesus’ side has more firepower.

In truth, both teams are finding their stride: Conceicao’s Dragoes are undefeated in 11 across all competitions, while Jesus’ Aguias have not lost in seven.

Porto: Mixed Recent History in Cup Finals

While the one-off Supertaça is a game that Porto has not played much in over the last player cycle, it has played a number of finals since Conceicao took the reins in the summer of 2017.

His finals history is a rollercoaster: Defeats on penalties to Sporting in both the 2019 Cup and League Cup were crushing — especially given the fact Porto was the better team in both — were followed by a Cup triumph (2-1 vs Benfica) and League Cup defeat (0-1 at Braga) last season.

Porto vs Benfica Stats

Porto
VS
Benfica

7-1-2 (2.2 pts/game) 2020-21 Primeira Liga Record 8-0-2 (2.4 pts/game)
25 (2.5/game) Goals scored 23 (2.3/game)
13 (1.3/game) Goals conceded 11 (1.1/game)
Moussa Marega,
Sergio Oliveira (5)
Leading Scorer Haris Seferovic (6)
W – W – W – W – W Overall Form W – D – W – D – W
21-9 (30 apps.) Supertaça Record 8-12 (20 apps.)
21-12-7 H2H Record Since 2007 (W-L-T) 12-21-7

Porto has shown a tendency to defend to the level of its opposition this season, shutting out the likes of Manchester City, Olympiacos and Marseille in Champions League group play while routinely surrendering multiple goals in league play against the subpar-to-average teams like Tondela (4-3) and Pacos Ferreira (2-3).

Benfica: Goal-happy, Results Uncertain

The pros and cons of Benfica are very obvious to the most naked of betting eyes: Jesus’ squad fills the net, with multiple goals in eight of its last nine, but also struggles to defend against better (European-calibre) opposition.

Despite the eye-popping goal totals, the results against good-or-better teams have been mediocre: A draw vs Guimaraes (1-1) in cup play, draws at Standard Liege (2-2) and Rangers (2-2) in Europa League and a 3-2 home defeat against Braga point to some fallibility.

Porto vs Benfica Best Bets

It’s tough to find trends in Portugal’s biggest competitive rivalry; four of the last five meetings have hit the Over 2.5, but the five prior to those (2016-18) all hit the Under 2.5.

The Supertaça has traditionally been a wide-open, goal-happy game at the beginning of the season — more a pre-season crown jewel than a legitimate trophy — but its goal total history likely goes out the window given the game is taking place at a completely different part of the season.

With Benfica a goalscoring machine in both league and Europa League play, Porto will likely replicate its tactical approach from the latter half of its successful Champions League campaign — putting an emphasis on defensive structure.

With a cup on the line and in true Portuguese fashion, expect both teams to put extra care into the defensive side of the game with a tight first half — playing into both the Under and value first-half play with Porto in a draw-no-bet situation.

Picks: Under 2.5 (-118), 1H Porto DNB (-103)

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