Holstein Keil vs Cologne Odds & Prediction – Bundesliga Playoffs Leg 2
- 2.Bundesliga hopefuls Kiel taking on top-flight strugglers Cologne at 12 noon ET on Saturday
- Kiel holds a 1-0 lead from Leg 1 last Wednesday and is strong defensively at home
- See the odds, best bets and prediction for Holstein Keil vs Cologne in the Bundesliga Playoffs Leg 2 below
Germany’s knife-edge promotion and relegation battle reaches its conclusion on Saturday when Holstein Keil aims to leap into the Bundesliga and relegate FC Cologne. Holstein Keil vs Cologne kicks off at the Holstein-Stadion in the northern port city of Kiel is at 12:00 pm ET.
Keil of 2.Bundesliga holds a 1-0 lead from last Wednesday’s Playoff first leg and has an impressive home record and a solid defense as it prepares to host the return clash.
Meanwhile, Cologne is facing the drop out of the top-flight Bundesliga for no less than the sixth time this century.
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Holsten Kiel vs Cologne Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holsten Kiel vs FC Cologne | HOL +0.5 (-121) | COL +1.5 (+100) | HOL +270 | COL -103 | DRAW +245 | Ov 2.5 (-110) | Un 2.5 (-110) |
Odds as of May 28 at DraftKings
The oddsmakers, however, favor Cologne for a second-leg victory with DraftKings pricing it as a -103 favorite.
They rate Keil at +270 for a home win which is the best offer here – with the draw after 90 minutes at +245.
Germany’s promotion and relegation playoff features the Bundesliga’s 16th-placed finishers taking on the third-placed finishers in 2.Bundesliga.
It follows automatic relegation for the Bundesliga’s 17th and 18th sides and automatic promotion for those finishing first and second in 2.Bundesliga.
First Time in Top Flight?
Kiel was once one of the most powerful clubs in northern Germany but has never appeared in the Bundesliga since its foundation in 1963.
Cologne, meanwhile, was champion in 1963-64 and 1977-78 but has been a yo-yo club in recent times – most recently relegated from the Bundesliga in 2017-18 with an immediate return the following season.
9 – Holstein Kiel are the first 2nd division side to win a #Bundesliga relegation playoff match in 9 years. Fortuna Düsseldorf had been the previous one to do so (2-1 away to Hertha BSC in 2011-12), in between the 2. Liga teams remained winless in 17 such matches. Upset. #KOEKSV pic.twitter.com/KwSxsGIacA
— OptaFranz (@OptaFranz) May 26, 2021
A 59th minute headed goal from Simon Lorenz handed Kiel a 1-0 victory in the first leg in Cologne last Wednesday.
Now it puts its impressive home record of 11 wins, seven draws and just two defeats in 2.Bundesliga on the line as it seeks the jump into the big-time.
Cologne had a better record on the road than at home in the regular season.
Furthermore, Kiel has kept seven clean sheets at home in league matches this season.
Indeed, it had the best back-line record in 2.Bundesliga after conceding only 35 regular-season goals.
Our final away trip of the season awaits.
___#KSVKOE pic.twitter.com/MYW6eTFm19— 1. FC Cologne (@fckoeln_en) May 28, 2021
On the other hand, Cologne had a better record on the road than it held at home in the regular season.
It won five times away from home while drawing four and losing on eight occasions.
Holstein Kiel vs FC Cologne Stats
| 19 | Wins | 8 |
| 8 | Draws | 9 |
| 8 | Losses | 18 |
| 58 | Goals | 34 |
| 35 | Goals Against | 61 |
| 47 | Yellow Cards | 67 |
| 3 | Red Cards | 1 |
| 14 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
*Statistics are from regular season campaigns and Play-off Leg 1.
At its own HQ, Cologne won only three times while drawing five and losing nine times.
Only three teams from the lower division have been successful in the playoff since the turn of the century.
But Kiel will fancy its chances after dominating the second half of the first leg tie in Cologne – with substitute Lorenz scoring the winner just seconds after he came on as a substitute.
Certainly, Cologne had been the better team in the first half. But it managed only one major opportunity when Ondrej Duda shot narrowly wide in added time.
Seven Cautions in Leg 1
It was a hard-fought encounter with four yellow cards for Cologne and three for Kiel.
One factor may be that Kiel has been involved in a hectic schedule lately. This will be its 11th match since April 24.
However, it is also significant that it was defeated by two or more goals only once in the regular campaign – with Cologne requiring two goals to turn the playoff around in normal time.
Cologne, moreover, managed an average of only one goal per game in the regular season – scoring 34 times while conceding 60 goals.
Two defeats in the final two games forced Kiel into the playoff.
Disappointingly, Kiel had held second place and an automatic promotion spot from mid-December until the final day of the regular season.
Two defeats in the final two games, however, forced them into the playoff.
The moment 2. Bundesliga side Holsten Kiel knocked Bayern Munich out of the German Cup 👏
The scenes 😍pic.twitter.com/uHfGLhGLl3
— Goal (@goal) January 14, 2021
Before the first leg playoff meeting, Cologne was a 4-0 winner at home against Kiel in 2.Bundesliga in March, 2019.
There was a 1-1 draw at Kiel in October, 2018.
This time around, in conclusion, Kiel looks the better bet to triumph again despite the bookies favoring Cologne.
Pick: Holsten Kiel +270
John Dillon is a leading member of the UK's sporting media, having spent three decades as a national newspaper soccer and sports writer, broadcaster and author. He has covered five World Cups, six European Championships and was Chief Sports Writer at the Daily Express for 14 years.
