- Inter have dropped out of the Serie A title race and sit fourth ahead of the visit of Torino
- Victory over Brescia pulls Torino away from the bottom-three
- Get the odds, pick and betting discussion ahead of Monday’s clash below
Torino travel to Milan to face Inter on Monday, July 13th at 3:45 pm EST. Well in the title race for much of the season, Inter has slipped out of contention and fallen all the way to fourth in Serie A, behind Atalanta and Lazio. Torino ended a winless run with a victory over Brescia last time out, effectively ending relegation concerns.
Their previous meeting, a 3-0 Inter victory, came in the middle of a long domestic unbeaten run for Antonio Conte’s side. Their form is much less favorable for their second clash of the season, but the Serie A odds still heavily favor them to come out on top on Monday.
Inter Milan vs Torino Odds
|Inter Milan||-1, -1.5 (+100)||-217||Over 3 (-101)|
|Torino||+1, +1.5 (-120)||+620||Under 3 (-121)|
Odds taken July 11th.
Inter’s Defensive Woes
It’s one clean sheet in the six matches since the restart for Conte’s Inter. They have been on the wrong of some expected goals over-performance from the opposition – they have given up 6.20 xG against in the six matches and conceded nine. The attack has continued to deliver, scoring 16 since the league’s resumption, but four goals conceded in their last two matches has seen them pick up just one of the six available points.
Their 24 goals conceded before the season was halted was good for the joint-second best defensive record in the league. Only Lazio (23) had let fewer in. Teams were not creating much – Conte’s system was working superbly and on the odd occasion they were put under pressure, Milan Skriniar and Stefan de Vrij were defending well.
Torino have scored in their last seven Serie A matches, but their attack hasn’t specialized in chance creation this season. Even with Andrea Belotti leading the line, they are a good opponent for this slightly unsettled Inter defense.
Since arriving from Tottenham in the winter transfer window, Christian Eriksen has only collected a couple of assists in Serie A. His expected assists per 90 at 0.34 is bettered by just three players (of those who have played over 400 minutes in the league). Eriksen is creating better chances than Luis Alberto, Alejandro Gomez and Roma starlet Nicolo Zaniolo.
Torino’s back three will face a challenge picking up the Dane. Given freedom to operate behind the two strikers, Eriksen can drift wide, stretching the outside center-backs or he can operate more centrally, forcing a midfielder to drop in and pick him up.
Eriksen brings guile to this Inter team, and while he doesn’t do much to help them out defensively (which has been their main weakness of late), he will be an important player when it comes to breaking down Torino.
The Turin-based club have conceded 12 in their six matches since the season resumed last month. Per Understat, they have been unlucky at then end, having conceded just over seven non-penalty expected goals against. Having kept out Roma and Napoli earlier in the season, they are capable of frustrating more talented opponents.
Inter vs Torino Statistics
|78 yellows, 7 reds||Cards||68 yellows, 7 reds|
|16.8||Shots per match||11.7|
|57%||Shots inside the area||56%|
|61.82||Understat expected points||30.85|
Too Much Quality
With neither side playing for much, this match isn’t a straight forward one to predict. Motivation could prove to be an issue.
The quality of Inter should shine through eventually, however. With the spread at -1, -1.5, the moneyline could be a better option here considering Inter’s recent form. The ‘over’ is worth consideration too – Torino will fancy their chances of nicking a goal.
Pick: Inter moneyline, over 2.5 total goals (-136)