Italy vs Spain Odds & Prediction – UEFA Nations League Semifinals

• Italy host Spain in the semifinals of the UEFA Nations League on Wednesday, October 6th at 2:45 pm EST
• The winner of the match advances to the Nations League Final in Milan on Sunday, while the loser competes for third place in Turin
• Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

After a blistering start to the club season, it is time for the international break and for the Nations League to resume.

Based on last season’s Nations League Group A stages, there are four teams that advanced to this week’s semifinal round: Italy, Spain, Belgium and France.

On Wednesday, Italy takes on Spain in a rematch of the Euro 2020 semifinals, while Belgium faces off against France. The match between Italy and Spain is being played in Milan, also the host city for the eventual final on Sunday.

Italy vs Spain Odds

Odds as of Oct 4th at DraftKings

This match, spearheaded by Roberto Mancini and Luis Enrique on the touchline, has all the makings of a classic match. In fact, their battle this summer at the Euros was quite the spectacle. Ultimately, the match ended in a spectacular penalty shootout, won by the Italians.

However, Spain remained tough throughout the 90 minutes. Federico Chiesa scored a goal in the 60th minute to put Italy ahead, and the game reeked of a 1-0 finish due to the frugal Italian defense. Nonetheless, Alvaro Morato brought them back into the game in the 80th minute with a left-footed finish in open play.

It was not enough to see the match out, but Spain should be even more optimistic to get their revenge on the Euro 2020 Champions, Italy.

Italy’s Fantastic Undefeated Run

Somehow, someway, even after their crazy Euro 2020 run, Italy has still not lost in 38 matches across all competitions. Simply put, this is a feat that would be talked about for years if it occurred on the club scene. The framework behind this achievement was built mainly from the hands of Mancini and his aesthetically pleasing football.

The #Azzurri get down to work 👊#ITAESP #NationsLeague #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/ncONqIv0BD

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) October 4, 2021

But, a massive amount of credit has to go to the players as well. Especially, ones starting in that Italian defense. The stats beneath us tell the story as they held just 0.33 goals per game across six matches in their Nations League group. Not to mention they played in a group featuring the Netherlands, Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina, three countries that all have prolific attackers.

Italy vs Spain Nations League Statistics

Furthermore, this Italian defense starts out all the way out at the very back of the pitch. Of course, we are talking about the young phenom, Gianluigi Donnarumma, who is now a member of PSG. His efforts have been incredible, and his save in the Euro semifinal against Spain was paramount to Italy advancing. With the seasoned leadership of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini in front of him, they are so tough to score against.

But, their offense needs some mentioning and credit as well. The likes of Federico Chiesa and Nicolo Barella have stepped up massively, while Lorenzo Insigne and Andrea Belotti can also be counted on.

Chiesa saved his team again 😇 pic.twitter.com/XDneSwbJSP

— Italian Football TV (@IFTVofficial) September 30, 2021

Regardless, this all goes without saying that Italy will be missing some key members for Wednesday’s clash versus Spain. The absentee list for Mancini includes the likes of Ciro Immobile, Rafael Toloi and Matteo Pessina. Despite Immobile’s shaky performances this summer, his absence in the squad will surely be missed.

Does Spain Have Enough Depth?

Since Spain’s defeat at the hands of Italy this summer, they have also fallen to Sweden while beating Georgia and Kosovo. This is a match they should be desperately looking forward to, having been away from silverware for long enough.

Unfortunately, their injury list is quite longer than Italy’s. In fact, they will be playing without six players who played a part in their semifinal against Italy this summer. That list includes Alvaro Morato, Dani Olmo, Thiago Alcantara, Pedri, Diego Llorente, and Jordi Alba, while Adama Traore misses out as well.

🔢👕 OFICIAL | ¡¡Estos son nuestros dorsales para la #NationsLeague!!

😜 Aquí tenéis el listado completo con los números que lucirán los futbolistas de la @SeFutbol durante la Fase Final del torneo.#VamosEspaña pic.twitter.com/ZzY4ZB9IiT

— Selección Española de Fútbol (@SeFutbol) October 4, 2021

These absences will surely play a part in Spain’s ability to attack and build up play in the midfield, given so many of these players are crucial to La Furia Roja’s success. As a result, expect Pablo Sarabia, Gerard Moreno, Ferran Torres and Koke to have a part in Wednesday’s selection.

Italy vs Spain Best Bet

Overall, the bet bet for this match is the Italy moneyline at +120. This bet has tremendous value for a team that has not lost in 38 straight games, also knowing that Spain will be without so many integral pieces.

Pick: Italy moneyline (+120)