Japan vs Croatia Odds & Prediction – World Cup Round of 16 (Dec 5)
- Japan meets Croatia on Monday, December 5 in the World Cup round of 16
- Croatia were semifinalists in 2018, while Japan exited the tournament in the round of 16
- We preview Japan vs Croatia, look at the odds, and offer some picks
It’s Japan vs Croatia on Monday, December 5 in the 2022 FIFA World Cup round of 16. It all kicks off in the Al-Janoub Stadium, Al-Wakrah at 10am ET.
The Croatians are hoping to make it to the latter stages for the second consecutive tournament, after being beaten finalists in 2018. Four years ago the Japanese made it to the last 16, where they were narrowly beaten by Belgium.
We preview Japan vs Croatia, look at the World Cup odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and picks below.
Japan vs Croatia Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Japan | +285 |
| Croatia | +110 |
| Draw | +230 |
Odds as of Dec 4 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.
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Croatia starts here as a plus-money favorite at +110 on the moneyline with an implied win probability of 48%, while Japan, listed at +285, have an implied probability of 26%. The draw after 90 minutes is pitched at +225 with an implied probability of 30%.
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Over/Under and Spread
DraftKings are anticipating a cautious one with over 2.5 goals in plus money at +135, while the under is odds-on at -170. With both teams scoring four in the group stage it looks unlikely to be a goal-fest.
Japan vs Croatia Preview
In a brilliant but slightly bizarre qualifying group, Japan recorded outstanding wins over European heavyweights Germany and Spain yet, sandwiched in between, suffered a disappointing defeat at the hands of Costa Rica.
But it was those two thrilling victories, over the Germans and the Spanish, that made the soccer world sit up and take notice, and right now Japan will believe that anything is possible.
New images released shows controversial Japan goal vs Spain was RIGHT to stand. pic.twitter.com/RvNo89aUP7
— SPORTbible (@sportbible) December 2, 2022
Japanese Bravery
The 2-1 win over Spain, which eliminated the Germans from the competition, was not without its controversy though. Ao Tanaka’s winning goal was the subject of a long VAR check that eventually concluded that Kaoru Mitoma cross was still in play by the finest of margins (see above).
That shouldn’t however detract from a Japan performance of bravery and resolve – one in which they stayed in the game in the first half before unleashing a lightning two-goal salvo in the second half.
Japan vs Croatia Head-to-Head Stats
| 24 | FIFA World ranking | 12 |
| 2-0-1 | Group record | 1-2-0 |
| 4 / 3 | Goals For / Against | 4 / 1 |
| 30 / 9 | Attempts on goal / On target | 30 / 16 |
| 1061 / 884 | Passes / Passes completed | 1707 / 1487 |
| W-D-L-W-L-W | Form guide (all comps.) | W-W-W-D-W-D |
Aging but Experienced Croatians
While this is an aging Croatia team – several were part of the 2018 team that made it to the World Cup final – they have invaluable levels of guile and experience in playing top-level tournament soccer. They know how to win and, in Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic, have one of the best midfields in the competition.
Their progress so far in this competition has been steady rather than spectacular but draws against the impressive Moroccans and highly-rated Belgians coupled with a comfortable win over Canada were good enough to see them through.
"It was a fantastic match against the great Belgian side"
🎙️ Zlatko Dalić 🇭🇷🤝🇧🇪#CROBEL #FIFAWorldCup #Qatar2022 #Vatreni❤️🔥 pic.twitter.com/FbSrDd9EG3— HNS (@HNS_CFF) December 1, 2022
Modric Still the Key
Croatia’s record of having conceded just a single goal so far in the competition stands them in good stead here, but they will need to stand firm when the Japanese have one of their high-energy and high-tempo spells.
Key for the Croatians, as ever, will be getting Modric on the ball in dangerous areas. If they do this successfully they likely go on and win the game.
Japan vs Croatia Team Lineups and Injuries
Japan Projected Lineup: Gonda, Yamane, Yoshida, Taniguchi, Ito, Tanaka, Morita, Nagatomo, Kubo, Maeda, Kamada.
Injuries & absences: Ikatura.
Croatia Projected Lineup: Livakovic, Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol, Sosa, Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic, Kramaric, Livaja, Perisic.
Injuries & absences: None.
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Japan vs Croatia Prediction
Japan’s journey has been thrilling so far but, as England discovered in the 2018 semifinal, this Croatian team is outstanding at playing tournament soccer. This will be, for the Japanese, a test every bit as tough as the Germany and Spain games.
Croatia’s mean defense will be tested but if they stand firm when the Japanese storm comes, they will win the game.
Pick: Croatia to win (+110)
Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
