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La Liga Matchday 20 Odds & Picks: Can Sevilla Engineer Shock Over Real Madrid?

Sevilla are looking to close the gap on the top sides in La Liga when they face Real Madrid this weekend. Photo by @SevillaFC_ENG (Twitter)
  • Sevilla (+420) are firm underdogs for their Saturday visit to Real Madrid (-164) at the Santiago Bernabeu, but might offer value on the spread given their hosts’ trip to and from Saudi Arabia for the Supercopa
  • Mallorca (+240) have lost four of their last five and are set to host Valencia (+100), who also traveled to Saudi Arabia for the relocated mid-season domestic cup but are enjoying a steady season, on Sunday
  • Real Sociedad (+173) visit Real Betis (+145) with every chance of earning a result — as reflected by the lack of a spread

We are firmly into the second half of the 2019-20 La Liga season with Matchday 20 upon us; here are three key matchups to keep an eye on this weekend.

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Real Madrid -1 (+100) -164 O 2.5, 3 (-125)
Sevilla +1 (-120) +420 U 2.5, 3 (+105)
Draw N/A +290 N/A

All odds taken Jan. 16

It’s an odd time indeed when Barcelona and Real Madrid have won just four of their last 10 combined matches.

La Liga’s dynamic duo remain first and second atop the league — with a healthy five-point cushion over Atletico Madrid and Sevilla — but it’s been far from smooth sailing for Real (11-7-1) as they prepare to host Sevilla (10-5-4) on Saturday.

Zidane’s squad is fresh off a Supercopa triumph in Saudi Arabia, but enter Matchday 20 with all the in-season travel and miles run that came with that win.

Lopetegui’s Sevilla has cooled off considerably from a red-hot start, and appears settled in for the second half in its usual 4th-to-6th zone in the standings. A 1-2-1 record in their last four has seen them dip out of the title race as most expected.

Note: These two clubs have not drawn a league match dating back 29 matches to 2006.

Pick: Sevilla +1 (-120)

Mallorca vs. Valencia Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Mallorca +0.5 (-120) +240 O 2.5 (-110)
Valencia -0.5 (+100) +100 U 2.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +240 N/A

A quick glance at the standings tells you Sunday’s early game shouldn’t be close.

Valencia (8-7-4) are enjoying a steady run of form, are into the UEFA Champions League knockout phase and on course for a return to Europe next season, while Mallorca (4-3-12) have been wildly entertaining to watch but struggled for points in their return to the top division.

However, check the recent form: Valencia’s dropped points against two bottom-half teams — Real Betis (1-2) and Valladolid (1-1) — over the course of their last six games.

It’s not outrageous to think Mallorca, which has claimed all four of its wins at home including a shocker against Real Madrid back on October 19, could earn a result here.

Pick: Mallorca +0.5 (-120)

Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Real Betis pk (-120) +145 O 2.5, 3 (-118)
Real Sociedad pk  (+100) +173 U 2.5, 3 (-102)
Draw N/A +235 N/A

Speaking of teams enjoying rather different campaigns at the halfway mark, Real Sociedad (9-4-6) travel to Seville to face Real Betis (6-6-7) on Sunday in a tale of two very different teams.

Featuring a host of frontmen capable of scoring — the quarter of Oyarzabal, Portu, Willian José and Alexander Isak have each netted at least four times — Sociedad have been electric en route to a steady 4th-place thus far, whereas Betis has found defending to be a challenge and consequently sit seven points and eight spots behind their visitors.

The moneyline tells us that even the sportsbooks are having difficulty predicting this one: Sociedad with a slight edge, but in mediocre form, against the definition of average in Betis with home advantage.

As a result, steer clear of outcomes and take the “Over”: Both these teams can score, and Betis has trouble defending.

Pick: O 2.5, 3 (-118)

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