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LAFC vs Leon Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF Champions League Final Leg 2

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Jun 4, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

LAFC forward Denis Bouanga (99) pursues the ball. LAFC vs Leon
Apr 11, 2023; Los Angeles, CA, USA; LAFC forward Denis Bouanga (99) pursues the ball against the Vancouver Whitecaps in the second half at BMO Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • LAFC host Leon in the second leg of the CONCACAF Champions League Final on Sunday, June 4th, at 9:00 pm ET
  • The visitors have a 2-1 advantage thanks to first-half goals from William Tesillo and Angel Mena in the first leg
  • Get our LAFC vs Leon prediction and odds below

The CONCACAF Champions League winner will finally be crowned tonight as LAFC and Leon square off one more time at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles. Of course, the two sides met just last Wednesday in the first leg of this contest, a match that Leon controlled for the majority of the ninety minutes. Continue reading for our LAFC vs Leon prediction and odds for leg two!

It took nearly 96 minutes for LAFC to open up their scoring, as they were held silent most of the night. However, a clean finish from Denis Bouanga on a low, driven cross from Sergi Palencia was enough to make this second leg much more interesting. Prior to that, Leon had scored two set-piece goals in the first half from a corner and the penalty spot. It is worth noting that both sides are chasing their first-ever CONCACAF Champions League victory.

LAFC vs Leon Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
LAFC -140
Leon +390
Draw +285

Overall, the moneyline odds are in LAFC’s favor at -135; this gives them an implied win probability of 57.5%. Leon is priced at +390 on the moneyline, with slightly more realistic +0.5 odds of +110.

Leon are 2-0-1 against LAFC all-time and Mexican clubs do generally lift the cup, having collected over 53% of this competition’s trophies. Nonetheless, LAFC will not go down easy at their home ground. Across all competitions this season, they are 7-1-2 at BMO Stadium. Conversely, Leon are only 6-6-8 away from home this year.

Odds as of June 4th from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Over/Under Odds

Additionally, this contest is expected to be goal-friendly with the odds on over 2.5 total goals sitting at -150. Two of their three head-to-head meetings and 78.6% of their combined CONCACAF Champions League matches this season have surpassed that total. Ultimately, this is a night where LAFC will need to be open and expansive as goals are a priority, which favors this play. To get better odds, you can bump up to over 3.5 total goals, which is priced accordingly at +165.

LAFC vs Leon Head-to-Head Statistics

2.14 Goals per game 2.14
1.77 Expected goals per game 2.05
0.57 Goals allowed per game 0.57
1.57 Expected goals allowed per game 1.33
53.1% Possession % 59.6%
57.1% Clean Sheet % 42.9%
12.7 Shots per game 14.1
L-L-W-D-W Recent Form Guide (All Comps) W-L-W-W-L

Stats in the table from 2022/23 CONCACAF Champions League play.

Props – Bouanga to Bag Another Goal

Another prop I am leaning towards is Bouanga to score at -105. He is the most favored goalscorer and this is a chalky play, in fairness. Regardless, the Gabonese forward is on fire and this is a play I simply cannot pass on. He has scored six times in his last eight appearances, which is a truly ridiculous return on goals.

LAFC vs Leon Projected Lineups and Injuries

LAFC Projected Lineup: McCarthy, Palacios, Palencia, Maldonado, Hollingshead, Cifuentes, Sanchez, Tillman, Bouanga, Vela, Opoku

Major Injuries & Absences: Crepeau, Leone, Murillo, Acosta, Chiellini

Leon Projected Lineup: Cota, Tesilla, Frias, Barreiro, Y. Moreno, Romero, Ambriz, I. Moreno, Davila, Mena, Alvarado

Major Injuries & Absences: Ramirez, Rodriguez (questionable)

LAFC vs Leon Prediction

All in all, I think LAFC will be crowned CONCACAF Champions League victors tonight. In reality, the Bounanga goal at the end of the first leg changed this tie. If Leon left with a 2-0 advantage, this might be a different story. Now, LAFC feels as though they are back in the contest, ready to fight at home.

I simply cannot look past Leon’s poor away record and lack of game time too. Nicolás Larcamón’s side played only twice in May and now faces back-to-back games, within three days of each other, against one of the best sides in the MLS.

Their last head-to-head tie speaks volumes as to how this match will play out. Leon won the first leg 2-0 and when the two sides met back up in Los Angeles, a little over a week later, LAFC smashed them 3-0 and advanced. Sadly, a one goal advantage just will not be enough for Leon come tonight.

Still, the LAFC moneyline does not have much value. In turn, I am sticking with a play on the over and Bounanga to score for the black and gold.

LAFC vs Leon Picks: Over 3.5 goals (+165) & Bouanga to score (-105)


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