Liga NOS Matchday 10 Odds & Picks: Road Value is Key
- The status quo has returned in Portugal, as giants Benfica and Porto are co-leaders with the former (-140) a slight favorite ahead of the latter (+120) in title odds
- Matchday 10 is all about maximizing road value, with the likes of Guimaraes (-101), Boavista (+202) and Santa Clara (+220) all offering bettors different options
- Benfica (-375) and Porto (-714) are both strong favorites at home against Rio Ave (+850) and last-place Aves (+2100) respectively
There’s been a flurry of games and action in Portugal’s Liga NOS since the league returned from its October international break, and Matchday 10 promises nine intriguing matchups for bettors.
Here are our two anchor picks, as well as potential plays to tack on for a three-way parlay.
Moreirense vs. Guimaraes Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | +0.5 (-119) | +250 | O 2.5 (-118) |
| Guimaraes | -0.5 (-101) | -101 | U 2.5 (-102) |
| Draw | N/A | +230 | N/A |
All odds taken October 31, 2019
Matchday 10 kicks off with two games on Saturday; while most eyes will be on Benfica’s home game against Rio Ave, we feel the value could lie in the day’s other contest in Moreira de Conegos.
Vitoria Guimaraes (4-3-2) are ‘arrow up’, to borrow an American football term: Ivo Vieira’s squad has won four of its last five in league play — most recently a 5-0 demolition of Belenenses on Wednesday — and nearly earned a shock point at Arsenal in Europa League action.
Moreirense (2-3-4), on the other hand, are winless in five league games and closer to the drop zone than mid table. The club has had issues scoring, with a serious dropoff outside 36-year-old Nene and young South African Luther Singh with three goals each.
Normally, we’d recommend Guimaraes in this situation: They’re in-form, the clear-cut fifth best team in Portugal and on a larger wage budget than Moreirense.
But, with it being the visitors’ fifth game in 13 days, we suggest the “Under”.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-102)
Setubal vs. Boavista Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vit. Setubal | pk, -0.5 (+109) | +152 | O 1.5 (-111) |
| Boavista | pk, +0.5 (-129) | +205 | U 1.5 (-109) |
| Draw | N/A | +181 | N/A |
When it comes to the excitement factor, we do not recommend watching Setubal (1-6-2) host Boavista (3-6-0) on Monday.
Both teams have drawn 66% of their games to begin the season, with Boavista’s attack (9 GF) the third-worst in the league to only Santa Clara (5) and Setubal (2).
That’s right: Setubal is averaging 0.22 goals per game at the moment.
Both clubs have made it obvious they plan to beat the drop by defending, and thus far it’s worked: Boavista is the lone undefeated club left in the league, and sits sixth in the table, while Setubal is four points clear of the drop despite just one win.
To see Setubal, which is struggling for an attacking identity with 2018-19 top scorer Jhonder Cadiz now riding the bench at Benfica, favored in this is surprising.
Pick: Boavista +0.5 (-129)
Parlay Options
Santa Clara +0.5 (-105) at Portimonense: Similar to the two teams we just mentioned, Santa Clara is offensively challenged (5 GF) and defensively stout (7 GA). On the road at a Portimonense team that doesn’t score (6 GF), Santa Clara (3-3-3) could reasonably be expected to earn a result.
FC Porto -2.5 (-110) vs. Aves: Want to talk about a recipe for disaster? Take an angry Porto (7-1-1) side, fresh off disappointing 1-1 draws at Maritimo and vs. Rangers, and put them on their home pitch against Aves (1-0-8) — possibly the worst defensive team of the decade in Portugal.
Carlos Verde is a sports media professional, with writing featured in a number of outlets, including the Epoch Times, Ottawa Life Magazine and Where is Football. He also served as a broadcast commentator for the United Soccer League's Ottawa Fury FC.
