Liga NOS Matchday 11 Odds & Picks: Value in Totals Betting

Tondela are +265 underdogs as they visit second-last Paços Ferreira on Matchday 11 in Portugal. Photo from @CDTondela1933 (Twitter)
  • Benfica (-217) and Porto (-238) remain co-leaders atop Portugal’s Liga NOS, and face away trips to Santa Clara (+580) and Boavista (+680) respectively in Matchday 11
  • Hot-and-cold Sporting (-278) are back home to face Belenenses (+680), who have managed to stay above the drop zone despite continued off-field problems
  • A number of games featuring non-marquee clubs offer value on the over/under

Portugal’s Liga NOS returns to action this Friday, with all 18 teams set to take the field as the 2019-20 season ticks into its middle third.

Something for bettors to keep in mind: The league’s ‘big three’ — co-leaders Porto and Benfica, plus Sporting — are all coming off mid-week action in Europe, along with Braga and Guimaraes.

While the Liga leaders have enough squad depth to comfortably earn results on short rest domestically, bettors will want to track whether the other three could struggle with squad rotation this weekend.

Here are two value Over/Under plays, along with a few ideas to spruce up a parlay.

Rio Ave vs. Vitoria Setubal Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
-1 (-104) -182 O 2.5 (-111)
Vit. Setubal  +1 (-116) +500 U 2.5 (-109)
Draw N/A +275 N/A

All odds taken November 7, 2019

The first game on Saturday’s three-match docket features underachieving Rio Ave (3-3-4) and a somehow-climbing Setubal (2-6-2) in Vila do Conde.

Carlos Carvalhal’s Rio Ave is fascinating, with tons of attacking talent — winger Nuno Santos, Iranian target man Mehdi Taremi, etc. — and decent personnel in the defense. Yet somehow, the squad is tied for ninth and winless in its last four league matches. A combination of slightly above-average offense (14 GF) and slightly below-average defense (13 GA) has left Carvalhal’s team in the no man’s land of .500.

Vitoria Setubal, on the other hand, are a study in efficiency: Since a 4-0 thrashing at Porto back on August 17, the club has conceded just three times in eight Liga matches. Aided by an own goal, caretaker manager Meyong’s squad even notched a 1-0 win against previously-undefeated Boavista in their last game.

Setubal do not score, with a league-worst three GF this season, but also do not concede — their six GA are the third-fewest in Portugal behind Benfica (three) and Porto (five).

Pick: Under 2.5 (-109)

Famalicao vs. Moreirense Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Famalicao -0.5 (-122) -122 O 2.5 (-108)
Moreirense  +0.5 (+102) +300 U 2.5 (-112)
Draw N/A +250 N/A

Saturday’s late game offers some value for bettors looking beyond the big three, as Famalicao (7-2-1) hosts struggling Moreirense (2-4-4).

Joao Pedro Sousa’s Famalicao side were the talk of the country to begin the season, but a humbling 3-0 defeat at Porto and 2-2 draw at Braga in recent weeks have seen the newcomers fall to third in the league table.

Plenty of eyes will be on the club’s return home as they put their perfect home record (4-0-0) in league play on the line against an out-of-sorts Moreirense.

Saturday’s visitors are winless in six — though enter off three-straight 1-1 draws — and sit closer to the drop zone than European places.

Famalicao has gone “Over” in seven consecutive league games and three of four at home. Moreirense has gone “Under” in each of their last three league games.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-108)

Parlay Picks

Tondela +0.5 (-112) at Paços Ferreira | After narrowly avoiding the drop last year, Tondela (4-3-3) has looked steady this season and just had a number of players called up for international duty. Paços (1-2-7) have struggled for goals this year in their return to the top flight, and are winless in four.

Boavista +1.5 (-121) vs. Porto | Betting against the big three is risky business, but Porto (8-1-1) was soundly beaten midweek in Scotland while Boavista (3-6-1) are one of the sturdier defensive teams in the league. With the panteras backed by a home crowd in this derby, watch out.

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