Liga NOS Matchday 12 Odds & Picks: Benfica & Portugal Huge Home Favorites
- Back to regularly-scheduled programming in Portugal: Benfica (-588) and Porto (-556) are both automatic picks at home against Maritimo (+1198) and Paços de Ferreira (+1498) respectively, as they continue to romp away from the rest of the Liga NOS
- Fresh off a key result in Europe mid-week vs. Wolves, Braga (-179) host Rio Ave (+438) on Monday with both looking to push for European spots in the league
- The anomaly that is Vitoria Setubal’s ridiculous goal record (three for, seven conceded in 11 games) should be a play as they host Guimaraes (-113) on Sunday
It’s Matchday 12 in Portugal’s Liga NOS and we’re breaking down some best bets from some of the weekend’s most exciting matches.
Benfica vs Maritimo Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | -2 (-110) | -588 | O 3 (-123) |
| Maritimo | +2 (-110) | +1198 | U 3 (+103) |
| Draw | N/A | +518 | N/A |
All odds taken Nov. 28
This is the exact game that Benfica (10-0-1) has romped in the Portuguese league for years: A middling opposition (Maritimo, 2-5-4), at home, in front of the raucous Estadio da Luz.
Bruno Lage’s Benfica side has history in its corner; the club has sunk Maritimo in 13-straight contests at the Luz, gone over 2.5 in seven straight and Maritimo has just one win from its last nine league outings.
Factor in some key injuries for the visitors — main strike threat Rodrigo Pinho and defender Zainadine will both miss out — and the journey to the capital could quickly become an ugly one for the visitors from the island.
It also seems the 2019-20 season will play out much as last year’s did, with Benfica and Porto running roughshod over the league while pressuring each other to maintain consistent results.
Pick: Benfica -2 (-110)
Vitoria Setubal vs Guimaraes Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Setubal | +0.5 (-107) | +298 | O 2.5 (+104) |
| Guimaraes | -0.5 (-113) | -113 | U 2.5 (-124) |
| Draw | N/A | +223 | N/A |
What a strange, strange year for Vitoria Setubal (2-6-3).
Unable to score — Julio Velazquez’s team has managed three goals all season — Setubal has had to rely on excellent defensive structure to pick up points, more often than not draws.
Setubal’s defensive record (7 GA) is the third-best in Portugal behind only Porto and Benfica, and the team hasn’t conceded at home at the Estadio do Bonfim in six league matches (2-4-0) this season.
Guimaraes (4-4-3) are an interesting study, too: Competitive in a very difficult Europa League group, but still decent enough in league play to sit in 5th place (16 pts) — the head of a mid-table logjam behind 4th-place Sporting (20 pts).
Defending has been an issue at times for Ivo Vieira’s squad, but that shouldn’t be tested much on Sunday against the worst attacking team in Portugal.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-124)
Using these as parlay anchors, consider any one of the following for a three-leg parlay:
Tondela (+100) vs. Belenenses: Neither of these teams instills confidence, but Tondela (4-3-4) are expected to switch to a 4-3-3 formation in search of a win against a Belenenses side which has lost three straight away.
Moreirense (-101) vs. Aves: Another underwhelming matchup in the league table gives bettors value, as Moreirense (2-5-4) will go all-out in search of their first league win since August vs. a hopeless Aves (1-0-11) team that already has one foot in the second division.
Carlos Verde is a sports media professional, with writing featured in a number of outlets, including the Epoch Times, Ottawa Life Magazine and Where is Football. He also served as a broadcast commentator for the United Soccer League's Ottawa Fury FC.
