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Lille vs PSG Odds & Prediction – Ligue 1 Round 23

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer News

Updated Feb 5, 2022 · 4:50 PM PST

Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi celebrate, PSG
PSG's Kylian Mbappe, centre, celebrates with PSG's Lionel Messi after scoring his side's second goal during the French League One soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, France, Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
  • Defending French champion Lille hosts current league leader Paris St-Germain on Sunday, February 6th
  • Lille is well off the championship pace in 11th, while PSG is 10 points clear at the top
  • Read on for betting odds, a full preview and best bets for this Ligue 1 clash

With each passing weekend, Paris St-Germain’s procession to the Ligue 1 crown seems more and more a French formality.  The star-studded title favorite head into Sunday’s clash with Lille at Stade Pierre Mauroy 10 points clear of second-placed Marseille, and with a game in hand to boot. The title is very much PSG’s to lose, as the Ligue 1 odds clearly show.

For the hosts, any semblance of a championship defense has long since wilted, with Les Dogues sitting 21 points behind their Parisian rival, the team it beat to the title by one point last term. For those wondering how to bet soccer, this is the perfect match between two heavyweights to start off with.

Lille vs PSG Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Lille vs PSG LIL +1.0 (-200) | PSG -1.0 (+160) LIL +310 | PSG -120 | DRAW +260 Ov 2.5 (-136) | Un 2.5 (+108)

Odds as of February 5th at Barstool Sportsbook

Lille Proving Hard To Beat

Despite being well off the pace of the title winners elect, Jocelyn Gourvennec’s team has shown itself to be tough to put away this season. Les Dogues have drawn eight of their 22 games so far, good for the joint second-highest number of ties in Ligue 1.

In particular, after losing 2-1 at PSG back in October, the team went unbeaten in nine consecutive games (with five draws) before they came unstuck against Brest two weeks ago.

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Jonathan David’s Dominance and Home Comforts

Crucially for the betting in this contest, Lille is proving especially tough to beat within the friendly confines of Stade Pierre Mauroy, going 13 games unbeaten on its own pitch. The last team to beat Lille on its own turf was Nice back in August, so the home side will be hoping that fan support can spur it on against the powerhouse from Paris.

While it would be unfair to say that Lille is something of a one-man team, the dominance shown by Jonathan David up front is hard to ignore. The Canadian has scored 12 goals in 22 games in Ligue 1 this season after netting a total of 13 last term, with the striker averaging 0.66 goals per 90.

And that’s on top of his exploits with his national team, with the Ottawa native returning home after scoring twice over the past week to push Canada to the verge of World Cup qualification.

However, David also started all three games for Canada, accruing a whopping 252 minutes, so you have to wonder how much he will have left in the tank after all that action as well as travel.

The Pochettino Effect

Rumors around the PSG manager’s future employment with the club have hung over his head almost since his appointment last year, but recent news seems to indicate that both sides are already planning for a divorce at season’s end, no matter what silverware ends up in the trophy cabinet. (And just to be sure, as the outright betting shows, PSG are a massive -37500 to end up with the Ligue 1 trophy at the conclusion of this season.)

That news can have one of two effects on a team led by the likes of Lionel Messi, Sergio Ramos and Neymar – either the players double down in search of the kind of on-field chemistry that has been in short supply this season, or the season goes south in a hurry. The 11-point lead at the top seems all but insurmountable for a team with this much talent, but with the main focus on the Champions League, it is only normal to expect a few hiccups along the way.

PSG Looking For Winning Road Result

It seems like just a weird coincidence, but PSG’s last three away league fixtures have all been against teams that start with an L, and all three have ended in 1-1 draws.

The run started at Lens at the beginning of December, and has gone on to feature draws at Lorient and then Lyon. With Lille up next, a team that PSG beat 2-1 earlier in the season, a draw is always possible, but it seems something of a rarity in this fixture.

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In the last 20 Ligue 1 meetings between the sides, the match has only finished in a draw on four occasions, most recently in a 0-0 game in December 2020.

Lille vs PSG 2021-22 Stats

8-6-8 2021-22 Ligue 1 Record 16-1-5
30 Goals For 46
30 Goals Against 18
32.2 Expected Goals 41.2
23.0 Expected Goals Against 21.2
DWDWL Form This Season WDDWW

No Neymar, No Problem for PSG

The Brazilian talisman may still be out of action – he hasn’t played since the end of November – but PSG has hardly missed him, going unbeaten in the 12 games since, although the last game did see the team exit the Coupe de France on penalties after a 0-0 draw.

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The team hasn’t struggled for goals in his absence either, scoring four in a game on three occasions, and featuring just two outings without at least a goal.

Kylian Mbappe has certainly stepped up in the Brazilian’s absence, scoring 10 times since Neymar last played.

Best Bet: Draw (+260)

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