Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds, Lineups – EPL Picks April 9
- Liverpool hosts Arsenal in English Premier League play on Sunday, April 9th, at 11:30 am ET
- The Gunners will look to complete the first Premier League double against Liverpool since the 2009/10 season
- Get our Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction and odds below
Every week, Arsenal are inching closer and closer to their first Premier League title since 2004. While the new year has been a little bit more unfavorable for the Gunners in terms of form, the return of Gabriel Jesus has spurred them on to three consecutive league victories. Now, they take on Liverpool at Anfield, in one of the Premier League’s most exciting fixtures over the last decade. A victory would help them maintain their eight-point gap over Manchester City, who sit in second place. Read on for an analysis of Liverpool vs Arsenal.
Conversely, Liverpool still sit on unfamiliar territory in the league table. The Reds currently hold eighth place, on a measly 43 points, which shows how truly disappointing their season has been. The miles in their midfield are proving difficult to manage, which only further exploits their back line and Trent Alexander-Arnold in particular. On offense, they have been hit or miss, but have recently been held to clean sheets in three of their last four matches across all competitions. Nonetheless, a victory at Anfield against the league leaders could create a feeling that reaching the top four is still possible.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | +185 |
| Arsenal | +135 |
| Draw | +270 |
All in all, Arsenal are the slight moneyline favorites at +135 in the Premier League odds. While this might have some shock value given the respective form of both clubs, Liverpool are a different animal at Anfield, going 13-5-2 across all competitions this season. Moreover, they have beaten Arsenal on their last six visits to Merseyside. While Liverpool are winless in their last four, the 42.5% implied win probability for the league leaders is justified given their struggles at this storied ground.
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Odds as of April 8th from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Over/Under
Additionally, this game is expected to be a scoring frenzy. The over on 3.5 goals is the first over option that has plus odds, sitting at +155. Earlier this year, these two clubs put on a classic, scoring five total goals. But, in their last ten matches across all competitions, the average total goal tally only sits at 2.5. Mikel Arteta is cautiously aware of the Anfield effect and should try to protect a defense featuring Rob Holding. In turn, this game might be more reserved than initially expected.
🗞 Our latest team news
🗞 Jurgen Klopp being an inspiration
🗞 The challenge of playing at AnfieldRead every word from Mikel Arteta's pre-Liverpool press conference 👇
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) April 7, 2023
Remember, Liverpool also have seven clean sheets in their last ten Premier League contests. Their offense might be sputtering. but Alisson can really have an effect on the goal total here.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Props – Mo Salah to Score
Another play I really like is Mo Salah to score anytime with odds of +185. These are terrific odds for a player who has eight goals in just fourteen games against the Gunners. Moreover, the Egyptian is scoring at a clip of 0.61 goals per ninety minutes, the best mark in the Liverpool squad. Arsenal have too many scoring threats for a solid play, which is why I am going in the direction of Liverpool for an individual goal scorer.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Projected Lineups and Injuries
Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson, Robertson, Van Dijk, Konate, Alexander-Arnold, Fabhino, Henderson, Elliot, Gakpo, Nunez, Salah
Major Injuries & Absences: Thiago (questionable), Diaz, Ramsay, Bajcetic, Keita
Arsenal Projected Lineup: Ramsdale, Zinchenko, Gabriel, Holding, White, Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard, Martinelli, Jesus, Saka
Major Injuries & Absences: Saliba (questionable), Tomiyasu, Nketiah, Elneny
Arsenal Have a Horrific Record at Anfield
Again, Liverpool have more than a chance in this contest. Their only two losses at Anfield all year have been to Leeds and Real Madrid. Also, they have not conceded at home in the Premier League since a December match against Leicester City.
Head-To-Head Statistics
| 1.71 | Goals per game | 2.41 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals per game | 1.98 |
| 1.18 | Goals allowed per game | 0.93 |
| 1.42 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.96 |
| 58.4% | Possession % | 60.7% |
| 39.3% | Clean Sheet % | 41.4% |
| 15.5 | Shots per game | 16.4 |
| D-L-L-L-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | W-W-D-W-D |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 Premier League play.
Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal | December 29th 2018
Roberto Firmino ⚽️⚽️⚽️🎩
Sadio Mane ⚽️
Mohamed Salah ⚽️Firmino's stunner from every angle 🤩pic.twitter.com/42oFu8LLzt
— The Redmen TV (@TheRedmenTV) April 7, 2023
I am willing to give Arsenal all the flowers they deserve; but, this is just not a match they perform historically well in. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find their last Premier League victory in front of the famous Kop. Rob Holding is a shaky defender and Arsenal as a whole have conceded in five of their last six outings. With some Liverpool players being rested versus Chelsea, they will be fresh and ready to make this Premier League run-in a lot more interesting.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction
To save some risk, I am riding with the Liverpool draw no bet (+110) and the aforementioned play on Salah to score (+185)
Liverpool vs Arsenal Picks: Liverpool draw no bet (+110), Salah to score (+185).
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
