MLS 2019 Goalscorer Matchups: Zlatan Ibrahimović vs Josef Martínez

• The top two MLS goalscorers return in 2019 with hopes of improving on last season.
• Can Josef Martínez break his own record of 31 goals scored last year?
• Will Zlatan Ibrahimović succeed in his prediction to break every MLS record?

Major League Soccer’s top two goalscorers from last year return for another season in 2019. Atlanta United’s Josef Martínez shattered the MLS scoring record last year with 31 goals, while the LA Galaxy’s Zlatan Ibrahimović made an instant impact in MLS with 22 goals of his own. But which player will have a better year in 2019?

With the MLS season around the corner, we take a look at which superstar striker will have the better season.

Zlatan Ibrahimović vs Josef Martínez Scoring Odds

*Odds taken on 02/22/19

With a record-breaking year in 2018, Martínez won this by a 31-22 margin last year.

As we look into a few keys stats over at American Soccer Analysis, what’s even more impressive about the year Martínez had was that he even outperformed his expected goals total (xG). With an xG of 28.7, he scored just over two more goals than what the expectation of his shot totals would have predicted.

Martínez may not have taken the most shots in the league, coming in at eighth with 97, but the percentage of which he put on target was incredible at 55.7%. In fact, he led the league with 54 shots on target.

Ready to for more 😡 in Chapter III? 😏 pic.twitter.com/PobpuQfviG

— Atlanta United FC (@ATLUTD) February 20, 2019

He will have to get used to playing without Miguel Almirón and his 11 assists which moved on to Newcastle this offseason. However, for all his playmaking abilities, Almirón took the second-most shots last year with 133.

He’ll need a new setup man but possibly could be counted on even more in 2019. Though new signee, Pity Martínez from River Plate, the South American Player of the Year for 2018, will also compete for scoring opportunities.

Zlatan: "How does Game of Thrones end? With me on the throne" pic.twitter.com/Dv2nZdUWRq

— Oh My Goal (@OhMyGoalUS) February 19, 2019

Zlatan’s debut in MLS was an immediate success. He also outperformed his xG total of 15.4 with his 22 goals. Zlatan took the third-most shots in the league with 117 and had the fourth-most shots on target with 48.

Despite the Galaxy’s struggles last year, Ibra often created chances out of nothing. And often on his own. 30.8% of his shots were taken unassisted. Of the top 10 scorers, the next highest was LAFC’s Carlos Vela at 26.8%.

Martínez is 12 years younger than Zlatan and playing on a better team. Martínez should also play more games when you consider Zlatan often avoids games played on turf at this stage of his career. I can only look to bet Martínez on each of these props.

Odds on Number of Hat-Tricks Scored

Martínez has spent two seasons in MLS so far and already has six hat-tricks. He managed to score two in each season and now has the most MLS hat-tricks in league history.

In 2018 he also managed four games where he scored two goals.

Josef Martinez is now the all-time leader in MLS hat tricks.

This is Josef Martinez's second season in MLS. pic.twitter.com/oDgtOPc6Ds

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) July 21, 2018

Ibrahimović is among the the game’s leaders in career hat-tricks with 18 total. He had 17 before joining MLS and scored three goals on July 29th against Orlando to score his first in the league.

Ibrahimović is among the the game’s leaders in career hat-tricks with 18 total.

On five occasions the Swede scored two goals during the season and will always be the biggest goal threat and personality on the pitch.

'They said it was over, I said NO!' – Ibrahimovic's defiant message after LA Galaxy hat-trick https://t.co/pEGY6sCPiq pic.twitter.com/8qJ3cnjQn3

— Barclays League News (@BarclaysLeague) August 3, 2018

Both players should once again be among the league’s goal leaders and should have plenty of opportunities to pick up goals through penalties. MLS is not a league known for its defense and I think each player stands a decent chance to go over these totals.

Odds on Total Goals Scored

Let’s start with the reigning scoring champion. Martínez had never been a consistent scorer during his time with Young Boys, Thun or Torino. However, in two seasons in Atlanta he’s now scored a combined 50 regular season goals in 54 matches.

In 2017 he scored 19, before his 31 last year. He also added four more in last year’s playoffs. He’s loving life so much in Atlanta that he signed a new five-year extension with The Five Stripes.

However, his scoring trajectory just seems unsustainable especially with some new pieces and coach now in Atlanta. Martínez played and started every game last year. Also impressive, yet also unlikely to be repeated. I’ll bet Martínez under 28.5 goals.

Josef Martinez will score ___ goals in 2019… 🤔 pic.twitter.com/d1IdNiz2eL

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) February 10, 2019

Unlike fine wine, most players don’t generally get better with age.

Now Zlatan is still a remarkable player and last year he played in 27/34 regular season matches and started 22 of them. Now another year older I don’t see that number getting bigger, meaning repeating 22 and also exceeding 25.5 seems a bit much to ask. Zlatan under 25.5.

Odds to Break MLS Scoring Record

Ok, if you’re following along you can probably guess where I’m going here. If neither are going to go over their goal total props, clearly they aren’t going to set new league records either.

Zlatan talks a big game and he usually backs it up. Fresh off a new DP contract, the self-proclaimed “Lion” will be looking to roar often down in Carson. But a new MLS record, for a player who will turn 38 later this year and who will likely skip some games on turf to preserve his body is just not something I can bet on.

Zlatan doesn’t break records, records break for Zlatan. pic.twitter.com/SpbHk5U60Y

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) February 18, 2019

It’s not every year a new goalscoring record is set. It’s even more unlikely that when it is, it’s immediately broken the following season and by the same player. In fact, for fun, I took a look at the performance of the MLS leading goalscorer the following season in each of the past 10 seasons.

Recent MLS Scoring Champions

Martínez is an incredible talent and should be filling the net for ATL for years to come. But history is not on the side of Venezuelan. Gotta bet the “No” here too.