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MLS Week 30 Odds & Picks: LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers, LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

Oct 15, 2021 · 9:33 AM PDT

Greg Vanney
LA Galaxy head coach Greg Vanney watches the first half of an MLS soccer match against Inter Miami, Sunday, April 18, 2021, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • MLS Week 30 kicks off on Saturday after the international break
  • Galaxy and Timbers primed for a high-scoring affair?
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from MLS Week 30

The international break is over and it’s a full slate of MLS action on Saturday starting at 1:00 pm EST with CF Montreal hosting the Philadelphia Union. This kicks off a day of 11 matches on Saturday before MLS Week 30 concludes with two matches on Sunday.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the MLS Week 30 schedule below.

MLS Week 30 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union +120 +260 +220
LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes -180 +330 +500
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF -125 +275 +360
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire -230 +400 +550
DC United vs Nashville SC +110 +250 +265
FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC +200 +245 +140
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United +125 +270 +205
Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders +150 +240 +190
Austin FC vs Minnesota United +150 +255 +180
Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids +155 +250 +175
LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers -110 +295 +280
New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC +160 +230 +180
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Sporting Kansas City +165 +240 +170

Odds as of Oct 15 at DraftKings

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

It’s a key match with Western Conference playoff implications on the line when LAFC hosts San Jose at 3:30 pm EST in MLS Week 30 action Saturday afternoon.

LAFC sits on 34 points in ninth, four back of Minnesota for the final playoff spot. San Jose are a point behind with 33 points in tenth. With just six games remaining, both of these teams need points and need them now.

LAFC’s winless skid was extended to four games after a 1-1 draw with the Galaxy entering the international break. It’s been a season to forget for Bob Bradley and LAFC. In their past 15 games, they’re just 3-4-8. They’ve conceded in 14/15 but have also scored in 13 of those 15. The Over is 12-3 in that stretch.

Heading into the international break the Earthquakes lost their past two games, 3-0 and 3-1. But in their three prior they were 2-0-1 and outscored their opponents 9-7.

There have been ten all-time meetings between these teams, nine in MLS and one in the US Open Cup. And guess what, all of them have seen at least two goals scored in the game. In fact, this matchup has seen at least three goals or more scored in 8/10 matchups.

Of the two games where only two goals were scored, one came in the last meeting, a 2-0 Earthquakes home win in September. The other was way back in 2018.

The Earthquakes own two wins over LAFC this year. That previously mentioned 2-0 win, plus another 2-1 win, also at home in August. San Jose has now won four in a row over LAFC, with each of the past three coming in San Jose. Overall, home teams in the head-to-head are 6-1-0 in the past seven.

That bodes well for LAFC who will be looking to avoid a fifth-straight loss versus the Earthquakes this weekend. I think each team will badly want the three points in this one and with neither team boasting an impressive defense, goals from both sides look likely.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-135)

LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers Prediction

The Portland Timbers have been steadily climbing up the Western Conference standings and now sit fourth with 46 points. The LA Galaxy have been freefalling from early-season success and now sit in sixth place with 39 points, just two points ahead of eighth-placed Vancouver. Minnesota sits between them both for the final playoff spot with 38 points. With crucial playoff positioning on the line, the Galaxy host the Timbers at 10:30 pm EST in the last Saturday night game of MLS Week 30.

Both teams have won at home against each other this season already. First, Portland won 3-0 in May. Then, LA won 4-1 at home in July. That was the ninth-straight game between the sides where at least three goals were scored in the game. In six of those nine, both teams have scored as well.

This one is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. Greg Vanney’s Galaxy is desperate to stop a streak of nine matches without a win where they are 0-4-5. Their last match saw them end level 1-1 with rivals LAFC. During these past nine matches, LA has conceded in every single game. However, they’ve also scored in seven of nine. The two where they didn’t find the back of the net came on the road. In fact, only one time all season have the Galaxy been kept off the scoresheet at Dignity Health Sports Park.

No team has been hotter than Gio Savarese’s Timbers over the past five rounds. They are one of three teams who have collected 13 points in that time. Over the past ten rounds, Portland’s 23 points are only bested by Seattle’s 24 and New England’s 25. Portland is undefeated in their past eight at 7-1-0 and are coming off a 1-0 home win over Inter Miami prior to the international break. In four of their past five though, goals were aplenty in 2-1, 6-1 and 2-1 wins, as well as a 2-2 draw.

Jaroslaw Niezgoda has been easing his way back from injury and has already made an impact. In just 20 minutes of combined play in his last three games, he’s scored two goals, including the game-winner and only goal of the game against Miami.

These are two of the highest ‘Over’ teams on the season, both at 18-10 to Over 2.5 goals and I see that trend continuing Saturday night.

Pick: Both to Score & Over 2.5 (-135)

MLS Week 30 Parlay

We don’t always pick out a parlay play but this one looks relatively safe.

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire

New England is closing in on the Supporters’ Shield and also the all-time MLS points record. The record is 72, they currently have 65.

In two previous meetings this season, the teams drew 2-2 and the Revs won 3-2, both in Chicago. Now the Fire will play the league leaders on the road, which is usually a place Fire tickets go to die. Chicago has one win away from home this season and are 1-1-11 with a minus-21 goal differential.

The Fire lost to lowly Toronto FC on the road 3-1 in their last game. That one road win they have this season is their only road win in their past 24 away from home.

Bruce Arena’s Revs meanwhile have just one home loss all season. They’re 11-2-1 and have outscored opponents 28-15 at Gillette Stadium. Their past three games (all wins) have come by 4-1, 2-1 and 3-2 scorelines. In fact, New England has just a single loss in their past 16 games with a record of 13-2-1.

Chicago recently fired head coach Raphael Wicky, oddly, after one of their few wins this season against NYCFC. They promptly went out and lost to Toronto a few days later. This should be a straightforward Revs win.

 Pick: New England – To Win (-230)

Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders

Houston’s season is over. They’re 12th in the West and 11 points back of the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, Seattle is on their way to locking up first overall in the conference sitting on 57 points, five ahead of second-place SKC with 52.

The Sounders are currently riding a four-match winning streak and are 8-0-2 in their past ten. Houston is coming off a 4-2 defeat in Kansas City and have just two wins in their past 22 matches. Now each of those two have come in their past six and at home, they are 2-1-0 (WDL) in their past three.

Seattle were 2-0 winners at home over Houston earlier this season. They’ve won each of their last eight meetings with the Dynamo, winning by a combined margin of 17-3. Seattle has also scored in each of their past nine matches against Houston. Look past that and they’ve scored in 20 of 21 recent meetings with Houston.

To matters worse for Houston, Jordan Morris could be in line to return from injury for the Sounders this weekend. However, Raul Ruidiaz picked up an injury over the international break with Peru so will miss out.

Truthfully, a straightforward Sounders win at +190 offers great value. Or Seattle on the ‘draw no bet’ market at +105 could also be an option. But it looks highly unlikely they are held off the scoresheet, so backing Seattle to simply score, paired alongside a win with the league’s top team, could be a good parlay play.

Pick: Seattle – To Score (-285)

Parlay Bet -108 odds

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