Monaco vs PSG Odds to Advance & Picks for UCL Playoffs

• Reigning Champions PSG find themselves in the Champions League playoffs after drawing to Newcastle in the final round of the group stage
• Their first leg takes place in Monaco on Tuesday at 3:00 pm ET, followed by the return leg next Wednesday in Paris
• Check out all the Monaco vs PSG odds and my picks to advance to the round of 16

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Reigning Champions League-winners PSG will have to do it the hard way if they are to defend their crown. An 11th-place finish in the Group Stage means the Parisians have to navigate the round of 24, where they will see familiar foe Monaco in a home-and-home two-leg tie. 

Luis Enrique’s side missed out on safe passage to the knockout stages after a 1-1 draw against Newcastle in the final round of games, and now have to do battle with their Ligue 1 rivals. 

Below, I look at the Monaco vs PSG odds to advance and then set out my picks and rationale.

PSG v Monaco Odds to Advance (UCL Playoffs)

The odds to advance heavily favor PSG. They are as short as -1600 at DraftKings and a slightly-more-bettable -1000 at bet365. Monaco is +600 at bet365 and +700 at DraftKings.

Odds as of February 16 at bet365 and DraftKings.

PSG v Monaco Prediction & Pick

• PSG to Advance at bet365

Monaco vs PSG Head-to-Head Records

Interestingly, when the two teams met in the league earlier this season is was Monaco who came out on top, but PSG have won their previous three encounters before that. They meet again in the league two weeks after the second leg, so they will be well acquainted with each other. 

PSG Still Top Dogs in France 

This season has been far from perfect for PSG, but they still remain the top team in France. The gap at the top of the table is just two after a recent loss to Rennes. But for as topsy-turvy as PSG’s season has been, they are still in command, and supporters will be hoping they will click into gear. 

Time Their Run

After what might well be the most dominant Champions League Final performance in the history of the competition, you would be forgiven for thinking that Luis Enrique’s side was a force to be reckoned with throughout the 2024/25 season, but their success was more to do with timing their run. 

The eventual winners were in serious danger of not even making the playoff rounds of the competition after a poor group stage showing, but they clicked into gear at the right time. 

A 4-1 group stage win against Stuttgart was followed up with a two-legged 10-0 win over fellow Ligue 1 outfit Brest before beating Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal en route to the final. 

After competing in the FIFA Club World Cup, a slow start to the season could have been foreseen, and they will probably ramp things up for the run-in, which is why they remain one of the outright favourites to win the competition. 

Monaco season so far

Monaco scraped into the knockout stages in what has been a tough season for them. Sitting seventh in the Ligue 1 table, inconsistency has been the key theme throughout. Although unbeaten in their last four games, they sit some 20 points adrift of PSG in the table and have matched their nine wins with an accompanying nine losses. All this to say, it is hard to see them consistent over two legs. 

Summary

Even though -1600 is not a great value bet, it is hard to back against the reigning champions against a league rival that they have had their way with in recent years. 

PSG may not have been at their vintage best throughout the 2025/26 season but if history is indicative of anything, they are waiting for this stage of the year to play their best stuff. 

Despite their flashes, Monaco cannot be given the same benefit of the doubt after their patchy track record. Expect PSG to advance without any major issues.