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Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Serie A Week 28

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in Soccer News

Updated Apr 1, 2023 · 10:00 AM PDT

Olivier Giroud and Stanislav Lobatka challenging for the ball during a soccer match. Napoli vs AC Milan odds.
AC Milan's Olivier Giroud, left, and Napoli's Stanislav Lobotka challenge for the ball during the Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Napoli at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
  • League leaders Napoli face AC Milan on Sunday
  • The hosts are a -120 favorite
  • Read on for the Napoli vs AC Milan odds, preview, and prediction

While Napoli essentially has the Scudetto wrapped up, they will be motivated as ever to grab another three points against rivals AC Milan on Sunday, April 2nd. It’s the first game for both teams since the international break. The kick-off is scheduled for 2:45 PM ET at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Find the Napoli vs AC Milan odds below.

The Serie A odds leaders have notched three straight wins across all competitions, scoring nine times and keeping clean sheets in every single fixture. Fourth-place Milan on the other hand was humbled on matchday 27 by Udinese, succumbing to a 3-1 defeat. It is important to note that Victor Osimhen is hurt and won’t suit up here for Napoli, who leads Italy with 21 goals.

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Napoli -120
AC Milan +320
Draw +245

Napoli is a -120 favorite on Sunday for an implied win probability of 54.55%. The Rossoneri come back at +320 and have just a 23.81% chance of coming out victorious. The Blues have won three of the last four meetings with Milan, including a 2-1 result in the reverse fixture in September. Another interesting bet to keep an eye on is under 2.5 goals at -130 odds. Aside from their clash last fall, the three matches prior were all 1-0 outcomes.


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Odds as of March 31st at DraftKings.

Napoli vs AC Milan Preview

The 2022-23 campaign has been nothing short of spectacular for Luciano Spalletti’s side, who sit 19 points clear at the top of the table and already have one hand on the title. Their 23-2-2 record is impressive itself, but what’s even more eye-opening is Napoli’s superior goal difference. They’ve scored 64 times in 27 outings and conceded just 16. This backline is rock solid.

Aside from a convincing victory over Torino on March 19th, just days before that Gli Azzurri also booked their spot in the Champions League quarterfinals, hammering Europa holders Eintracht Frankfurt 5-0 across two legs. Spalletti’s group will now battle their same opponent on Sunday in the last eight in an all-Italian affair, AC Milan.

Although the Scudetto is out of reach for Stefano Pioli’s men, they’re into their first UCL quarterfinal since the 2011-12 season and still have a great chance of qualifying for next year’s competition, too. Milan currently occupies the final Champions League spot and sits just a point above Roma, who are nipping at their heels.

The Rossoneri aren’t coming into this encounter in the greatest form, though. The Red and Blacks are winless in their previous four games, losing twice and drawing twice. The last time they won was on February 26th on home soil against Atalanta. However, Milan has captured back-to-back victories away at Napoli. That’s certainly a positive sign.

Napoli vs AC Milan Key Stats

AC Milan
23-2-2 (1st) Standing 14-6-7 (4th)
64 Goals Scored 44
16 Goals Conceded 36
WLWWW Record in Last Five Games WLDDL

Napoli vs AC Milan Projected Lineups & Injuries

Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Politano, Simeone, Kvaratskhelia

Injuries & absences: Osimhen

AC Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Bennacer, Tonali; Diaz, Krunic, Leao; Giroud

Injuries & absences: Ibrahimovic, Kalulu

Osimhen is the notable absentee here. He picked up an injury on international duty with Nigeria. Expect Giovanni Simeone to take his place up top centrally alongside Georgian phenom Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the left and either Hirving Lozano or Matteo Politano on the right.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic meanwhile is on the shelf again after suffering a thigh injury with Sweden, which means Olivier Giroud will be the main man in the final third.

Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction

The absence of Osimhen certainly hurts the hosts, but there is no shortage of supporting talent in this squad who can do damage. Although Milan’s recent fortunes in Naples have been positive, Napoli is a different beast this season. I expect them to secure the full points.

Pick: Napoli -120

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