- Netherlands drifting out to +650 for Euro 2020 glory despite favorable draw
- England are the favorites at 4/1
- Spain and Germany both well-priced outsiders
Netherlands have seen their average Euro 2020 odds drift from +767 on November 20 to +983 today, despite them starting as favorites in Group C. As it transpired in qualifying, Germany won the group but the Dutch qualified in second place, ahead of Northern Ireland.
So, the question we’re asking is, is now a good time to bet on the Netherlands, or could they be in for a tough test at Euro 2020 and Group C?
Odds to Win Euro 2020
Odds taken on Dec. 2.
Favorable Route for the Dutch
The Dutch are certainly worth tracking as their Euro 2020 odds have faded after last Saturday’s draw, despite them being drawn to what looks a relatively straightforward group. Group C includes the Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria and the winner of Playoff Path D – either Georgia, Belarus, North Macedonia or Kososvo – and so quality-wise there looks little there to hinder the progress of the Dutch through to the knockout phase.
The knockout draw has also been kind to the Netherlands, at least at first glance. The winners of Group C – and I expect the Dutch to win it with some comfort – are scheduled to play the third-placed team from either Groups D, E or F in the Round-of-16 – a tie that looks likely to offer them an eminently winnable route to the semifinals. That tie would take place in Munich, meaning huge swathes of orange supporting their team.
Once in the semifinal, it boils down to nerve and form – qualities I expect this fearless, young, technically gifted Dutch team to have in abundance. There are certainly worse bets out there than the +650 on offer for them to win it.
England Still With Much to Prove
England lead the betting – at +400 – but there are still questions remaining around the ability of Gareth Southgate’s team to mix it with the very best. In the 2018 World Cup, they made it to the semifinal but when confronted with quality opponents in the form of Belgium and Croatia they struggled.
So, while the draw has been favorable to England, in that they play their group games at Wembley (and the semifinals and final if they get that far), they will have to take down a couple of the big boys along the way if they are to win it. They undoubtedly have plenty of attacking options but are yet to convince from a defensive perspective. I’m not tempted by the 4/1 on offer from sportsbooks.
Finally Belgium’s Time?
This may be the last chance of glory for Belgium’s ‘golden generation’, and there is certainly enough quality in that squad to win a major honor, but unlike some of their main rivals they don’t have the gift of home advantage at any stage. If they are going to win it, they must do it the hard way. Overall they look better equipped than England, so there is some value in their 5/1.
Never Rule Out the Germans
As current world champions, France will be there or thereabouts in the shake-up but the real value appears a little further down the betting, namely with the Spanish and Germans. At 8/1 and 9/1 respectively, they both look generously priced given that both have proved themselves adept at tournament soccer over the last decade.
The art of finding form and maintaining it over the course of a tournament is one Spain and Germany have mastered in recent years and let’s not be fooled by the Germans’ one-off poor showing in Russia 2018. They have a great chance of winning next summer.
Pick: Germany to win Euro 2020 (+900)