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Newcastle vs Aston Villa Odds & Picks – EPL Predictions Week 1

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in Soccer News

Updated Aug 11, 2023 · 10:42 AM PDT

Joelinton EFL Cup Picks. Newcastle vs Leicester
Newcastle's Joelinton, right, duels for the ball with Manchester United's Jadon Sancho during the English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle United and Manchester United at St. James' Park in Newcastle, England, Monday, Dec. 27, 2021. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
  • Newcastle and Aston Villa clash on Saturday
  • The Magpies are a heavy -130 favorite for the Premier League opener
  • Find the Newcastle vs Aston Villa odds, preview, and prediction below

St. James’ Park will be buzzing on Saturday as Newcastle welcomes Aston Villa to town for the Premier League opener for both sides. The kick-off is scheduled for 12:30 PM ET here. Read on for our Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction here.

The Magpies were a pleasant surprise last term, finishing fourth in the English top flight to book their place in the Champions League for the first time in 20 years. As for the Lions, they landed seventh in the table, which is certainly respectable.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Newcastle -130
Aston Villa +360
Draw +290

The Magpies head into this encounter as a heavy -130 favorite for an implied win probability of 56.52%. Villa comes back at +360ย  Premier League odds and has a 21.74% chance of coming out victorious. A draw is priced at +290. Each team notched a win apiece in their two meetings in 2022-23.

Odds as of August 11th at DraftKings.


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Newcastle vs Aston Villa Preview

What a turnaround for Newcastle last season. After the club was bought by Saudi owners, things changed rather quickly. While they didn’t sign any big-name players, the moves the Magpies did make definitely paid off.

Eddie Howe’s side compiled an impressive 19-14-5 record, scoring 68 times and conceding just 33 in 38 games, which actually tied Man City for the fewest goals allowed in the Premier League. The backline was incredibly solid.

In the final third, Callum Wilson proved his worth with an impressive 18 goals to lead the line, while Alexander Isak also showed well, netting 10 times in just 22 games. Miguel Almiron scored 11, too.

The Magpies managed to improve their squad during the summer transfer window, bringing in Sandro Tonali from AC Milan, Harvey Barnes from relegated Leicester City, and former Chelsea man Tino Livramento, who was at Southampton.

Although Newcastle was smashed 3-0 in their last meeting with Villa in April, they’re actually unbeaten in 14 on home soil against the Villains, notching eight wins and six draws dating back to 2005. Howe’s men have also won two of their last three Premier League openers.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa 2022-23 Stats

Aston Villa
19-14-5 2022-23 Record 18-7-13
68 Goals Scored 51
33 Goals Conceded 46
3rd Finish in 2022-23 Campaign 7th

Villa was completely rejuvenated last term after sacking Steven Gerrard in October and hiring Unai Emery to take over. Under the Spaniard, the club would go on to win 15 of their final 25 matches, helping them soar into the top half of the table, ultimately finishing with an 18-7-13 record.

There’s no shortage of optimism for the Lions with Emery at the helm considering his past success with Villarreal. The side did add some impressive talent in the transfer window as well as Emery reunited with his former player Pau Torres, a strong defender from the Yellow Submarine. Youri Tielemans meanwhile joined on a free transfer and Villa also bought winger Moussa Diaby from Bayer Leverkusen.

Ollie Watkins proved to be the star of the show last season for the Villains, scoring 15 goals and tallying six assists in 37 Premier League appearances. Danny Ings and Douglas Luiz played their part as well.

Villa will be looking to avoid losing their third consecutive matchday one clash in a row. Knowing they were just one of four teams to actually beat Newcastle a year ago should give them some confidence.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Projected Lineups & Injuries

Newcastle Projected Starting XI: Pope; Trippier, Botman, Schar, Burn; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Isak, Barnes

Injuries & Absences: Willock, Krafth, Manquillo

Aston Villa Projected Starting XI: Martinez; Konsa, Torres, Mings; Cash, Kamara, Tielemans, Digne; McGinn, Diaby; Watkins

Injuries & Absences: Moreno, Buendia, A. Ramsey, J. Ramsey

Fabian Schar just recovered from a hamstring injury and could be in the starting XI for the Magpies. Joe Willock is the notable absence as he’s battling a hamstring issue. Wilson and Isak will both be looking for the start, with one or the other likely coming off the bench at some point.

When it comes to Villa, Alex Moreno, Emi Buendia, Jacob Ramsey, and younger brother Aaron Ramsey are all sidelined. The latter is on the verge of a move to Burnley. Expect Diaby to start in the league opener, having impressed heavily in preseason action.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction

I really like this Newcastle team and they only lost twice at home last campaign. The atmosphere will be electric at St James’ and I expect the Magpies to turn up and produce the goods. Three points are in the cards for Newcastle in my Newcastle vs Villa picks.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Picks: Newcastle moneyline -130

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