Odds Shortening on Sevilla After Europa League Matchday 3

• Sevilla’s odds to win Europa League are the shortest they’ve been
• Arsenal remain favorites to go all the way
• Read below to find out if Sevilla is the best bet in the Europa League

Although still third-favorite in the Europa League odds, Sevilla’s price to win the competition has fallen dramatically. Now at +900, the La Liga club were out at +1200 after matchday one.

Sevilla are the most successful team in UEFA Cup/Europa League history with five titles to their name. It’s not a competition clubs necessarily want to dominate in, but Sevilla have done, winning all five of their titles since 2006. They are the only team since Real Madrid in the 1980s to retain the trophy, a feat they achieved in 2006-07 as well as winning three in a row between 2014 and 2016.

Odds to Win Europa League

*Odds taken 10/26/19

Sevilla’s Impressive Expected Numbers

Julen Lopetegui’s side have made it look very easy in this season’s Europa League, winning all three of their group matches to nil. Their domestic form has been patchy, though that’s been down to a fair bit of misfortune. Lopetegui has his defense well organized – only Atletico Madrid have conceded fewer non-penalty expected goals in La Liga.

21 – Luuk de Jong has scored his first LaLiga goal for Sevilla after 21 shots attempted (12 headed shots in total). Relief. pic.twitter.com/ASSPZBqpKV

— OptaJose (@OptaJose) October 20, 2019

That sturdy defense should set Sevilla up well for the knockout rounds. Chance creation has been good too, though converting those opportunities has been an issue. Both Luuk de Jong and Javier Hernandez have massively underperformed their expected numbers thus far, combining for just three goals in 952 minutes this term. De Jong and Hernandez finding some finishing form later in the competition will be pivotal for Sevilla’s chances of going all the way.

Comfortable Group Stage

There was major turnover of the Sevilla squad in the summer window. At this stage of the campaign, we are still finding out how competitive this team will be. Being at a much longer price than Arsenal and Manchester United reflects an uncertainty in this collection of players and how well they will be able to compete in the latter stages, particularly if they face a team that has dropped out from the Champions League.

Their perfect start to the group stage gives Sevilla an advantage over other teams in this market. Arsenal and Manchester United are similarly comfortable – neither represent good value considering their early season struggles. There is value to be found at longer odds.

Watch Out for Lazio and Wolfsburg

Lazio suffered a last-minute defeat to Celtic on Thursday, but they are a team to consider at +3300. The Serie A side host the Scottish champions and CFR Cluj in their next two Europa League outings, putting them in a good position to qualify despite currently sitting third.

Thanks for all your support, Wolves ??#VfLWolfsburg #KAAWOB pic.twitter.com/ZcfO3PwyRP

— VfL Wolfsburg EN (@VfLWolfsburg_EN) October 24, 2019

Simone Inzaghi has one of the most talented squads in the competition at his disposal. No team will fancy an away leg at Stadio Olimpico in the knockout rounds.

Wolfsburg, another team at +3300, are top of Group I on goal difference and should qualify easily. Oliver Glasner’s side have been rock-solid defensively and are unbeaten in all competitions. Their squad isn’t loaded with recognisable names like Lazio, but they will make it very difficult for any opponent in a knockout tie.

Pick: Lazio at +3300