Poland vs Argentina Odds & Prediction – World Cup Group C
- Poland faces off against Argentina in the final match of Group C play on Wednesday, November 30th at 2:00 pm ET
- A win for either country would send them automatically through to the knockout stages; but, all teams in Group C are still alive
- Get the Poland vs Argentina odds and prediction below
The juicy part of the World Cup is here and Poland vs Argentina on Wednesday is sure to be a thriller. Poland can secure qualification by just not losing, but Argentina can only do so by winning. Saudi Arabia and Mexico sit on 3 points and 1 point, respectively, which means a win for either side could leapfrog them into the top two. Also, there is still a road for Argentina to win this group, which shows how open Group C really is on the final day.
Nonetheless, both of these teams have had sluggish starts to their World Cup campaigns. Poland went the distance at nil-nil with Mexico, before putting in a defensive shift and winning 2-0 vs Saudi Arabia. Of course, Argentina actually lost to Saudi Arabia on Matchday 1. Then, Lionel Scaloni’s side put in a dreadful performance against Mexico, winning 2-0 despite an xG of just 0.3 on the night. This is not the most impressive feat for a country that still has World Cup odds to win the tournament at +800.
Poland vs Argentina Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Poland | +650 |
| Argentina | -210 |
| Draw | +330 |
Odds as of November 28th from DraftKings. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to claim a unique World Cup bonus. Check out DraftKings’ parlay boosts for the World Cup offering up to 100% in parlay profit boosts.
Overall, Argentina are the massive favorites here with moneyline odds of -210. In three competitive matches since 1974, Poland have won two out of three against Argentina.
Nonetheless, we know this team lives and breathes through Lionel Messi. He can single-handedly win games for this country, as he did last weekend. Betting against him in this tournament is extremely difficult, especially since whoever finishes in second will most likely play France in the Round of 16.
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Poland vs Argentina Over/Under
Additionally, this game is also expected to fall under 2.5 goals with odds of -140. Across 32 World Cup matches so far, the under on 2.5 goals is hitting 65% of the time. However, the over has hit in five of the Albicelestes’ last six matches. On Matchday 3, with tensions raised, the over on 2.5 total goals at +110 might not be a bad half-unit play, especially if Paulo Dybala and Enzo Fernandez get involved.
Enzo Fernandez' incredible goal against Mexico as seen from the stands 🎯 #ARG pic.twitter.com/88X8lvm5hb
— Fútbol (@El_Futbolesque) November 26, 2022
Poland vs Argentina Statistics
| 1.10 | Goals per game | 2.70 |
| 1.01 | Expected goals per game | 1.96 |
| 1.20 | Goals allowed per game | 0.30 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.72 |
| 38% | Possession % | 64% |
| 50% | Clean Sheet % | 80% |
| 8.9 | Shots per game | 14.6 |
| W-D-W-W-L | Recent Form Guide (Serie A) | W-L-W-W-W |
Stats in the table from the last ten matches across all competitions.
Argentina to Hold a Clean Sheet
Likewise, I would look into Argentina holding a clean sheet here. The odds for them to do this sit at -115, representing an implied win probability of 53.9%. But, Argentina have held seven clean sheets in their last ten matches, which is a ridiculous achievement. Moreover, they have only accumulated 0.4 xGA against them, which shows how well they limit their opponents to tough chances on net.
Poland vs Argentina Projected Lineups and Injuries
Poland Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Bereszynski, Kiwior, Glik, Cash, Krychowiak, Bielik, Zielinksi, Lewandowski, Milik
Major Injuries & Absences: None
Argentina Projected Lineup: E. Martinez, Acuna, Li. Martinez, Otamendi, Montiel, Fernandez, Parades, De Paul, Di Maria, La. Martinez, Messi
Major Injuries & Absences: None
Poland vs Argentina Prediction
All in all, I do favor Argentina to win here in a close Matchday 3 contest. Argentina are the best team in Group C defensively, they have just been unlucky so far. Conversely, Poland have been extremely lucky to not concede a goal yet, considering their xGA across two matches is 2.4. Still, there is no value in either the Argentina moneyline or the Poland +1.5 spread option. So, I turn my interest to Argentina to win to nil at -105, which requires a victory and a clean sheet.
Lionel Messi is now the youngest and oldest player to both score and assist in a single World Cup game 🤯 pic.twitter.com/ERuWwolj1B
— GOAL (@goal) November 26, 2022
Also, I want to throw out a play for Messi to be the first scorer at +300. This has hit in both of Argentina’s World Cup contests so far, and has much better value than his +100 anytime goal scorer odds. Again, Argentina can play like a championship side for the full ninety. All Messi needs is a chance with 0.1 xG attached to it and he can create the difference.
Pick: Argentina to win to nil (-105)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
