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Portugal Cup Final Odds & Prediction: Porto vs Benfica

Benfica
Benfica are slight underdogs, yet have history on their side entering Saturday's Taça de Portugal final in Coimbra vs. Porto. Photo via Instagram (@slbenfica)
  • The Taça de Portugal final will be played on Saturday in Coimbra
  • League champions Porto face runners-up Benfica in a clash of the country’s titans
  • Get a breakdown of both clubs, Saturday’s cup final odds and a pick of choice

The final chapter of the 2019–20 Taça de Portugal will be written on Saturday at the Estadio Cidade de Coimbra, where Sergio Conceicao’s Porto — fresh off their 29th league title in club history — will face interim boss Nelson Verissimo’s Benfica.

Conceicao’s Porto will be eager to notch their first true double since their historic 2010-11 campaign; a strong second half coupled with Benfica’s utter collapse to hand the Dragoes the league title with two matches to spare, and attention has been firmly on the cup final for a number of weeks.

We’ll preview the game, look at how the teams have fared since the restart, and look for some good bets.

Porto vs Benfica Taça de Portugal Odds

Team Spread Moneyline at DraftKings Total
Porto pk (-124) +148 Ov 2.5 (+112)
Benfica pk (+100) +170 Un 2.5 (-141)
Draw N/A +205 N/A

Odds taken July 28

Porto Eye Domestic Dominance

Conceicao’s Porto were remarkably sharp down the stretch in Primeira Liga play, winning seven of eight matches prior to a meaningless 2-1 loss to Braga on the final matchday of the season.

The team’s final five-point gap over Benfica was remarkable given the latter’s seven-point lead atop the table in early February.

While Porto dropped the Taça da Liga (League Cup) final to Braga in a disappointing 1-0, last-gasp defeat, it’s been a successful year for Conceicao’s squad: Winning the league and securing Portugal’s lone and highly coveted direct-to-group stage Champions League berth was a coup, and adding the main domestic cup would make it a truly blue year in Portugal.

It hasn’t been the most challenging road to the final — Santa Clara and Setubal, both at home, were the only top-division sides en route — for Porto, but they will be champing at the bit.

Benfica Have Eye on Future

A win on Saturday would take some, but not all, of the sting out of a disappointing 2019-20 domestic campaign for Benfica.

With Bruno Lage long since departed, club icon Jorge Jesus already unveiled as the new manager for next season and rumours swirling about the potential acquisition of world-class Uruguayan striker Edinson Cavani, it feels like Lisbon’s largest club has already turned its attention to the 2020-21 season.

Their strong run of form to close out the season — four wins from five matches, including a 2-1 derby win over Sporting on the final matchday — should not be wholly ignored, however.

Porto vs Benfica Head-to-Head Stats

Porto
VS
Benfica

6 Games played  in 2019/20 Portuguese Cup 6
16 (2.67/game) Goals scored 15 (2.5/game)
2 (0.33/game) Goals conceded 7 (1.17/game)
5-0 at Coimbroes Biggest win 4-0 at Cova da Piedade
30 Number of League Cup finals 36
16 Number of times League Cup winners 26
1st Final Primeira Liga position 2nd

Recent History Says

Porto are 0-2 this decade in Portuguese Cup finals, with a pair of penalty defeats against Braga (2016) and Sporting (2019); Benfica, on the flip side, have won their last two finals in the competition — albeit against lesser competition in Rio Ave (1-0, 2014) and Guimaraes (2-1, 2017).

Delving further into the history books, Benfica has owned the matchup winning the only other final meeting of the century via 2-1 decision in 2004; prior to that, Benfica claimed all four finals meetings in the span of six years during the 1980s.

Best Bets

To Score: Haris Seferovic (+240) | While there are other, sexier picks available on DraftKings like Carlos Vinicius (+190) and Ze Luis (+185) for Benfica and Porto respectively, consider Benfica’s Swiss attacker Seferovic. Three of his five goals this season came post-COVID, including the opening goal against Sporting in last weekend’s derby. He’s involved in a lot of what Benfica do offensively, and his 23 goals last season were no fluke.

To Win: Benfica DNB (+105) | Yes, the Aguias flittered away what should have been a cakewalk of a title in the Liga; Porto, however, have been snake-bit in cup finals under Sergio Conceicao (0-3).

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