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Premier League Matchday 12 Odds & Picks: Wolves vs Aston Villa, Arsenal vs Burnley & Leicester vs Brighton

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer

Dec 10, 2020 · 11:38 AM PST

Aston Villa's Jack Grealish
Aston Villa's Jack Grealish celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Aston Villa at the London stadium in London, England, Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. (Neil Hall/Pool Via AP)
  • Aston Villa look to continue strong road play at Wolves, having won three matches away from Villa Park already this season
  • Only three teams have scored less than Arsenal, who have taken just one point from the last 12 available to them and face a home game with Burnley
  • Read on for full odds, match previews and best bets for the 12th round of the English Premier League season

After some crazy results earlier this season (Aston Villa 7, Liverpool 2 anyone?), some semblance of normality is starting to gain a foothold over in the English Premier League. Tottenham, Liverpool and Chelsea are establishing themselves as title contenders, with Manchester City not far behind, and with a game in hand to boot.

So if anyone is looking for some value bets, it’s probably best to look elsewhere. Case in point would be a team like Arsenal, which has seen the goals dry up even with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leading the line. Elsewhere, Aston Villa have shown surprising resilience away from Villa Park and Brighton continue to get the short end of the stick, as Southampton’s penalty that shouldn’t have been a penalty showed in Monday’s 2-1 Saints win.

English Premier League Matchday 12 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Leeds United vs West Ham United +120 +270 +210
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa +130 +230 +220
Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion +114 +240 +250
Manchester United vs Manchester City +335 +300 -130
Everton vs Chelsea +325 +300 -130
Southampton vs Sheffield United -139 +285 +390
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur +375 +275 -134
Fulham vs Liverpool +750 +480 -315
Arsenal vs Burnley -186 +310 +550
Leicester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion +106 +240 +275

All odds taken Dec 10 at DraftKings

Fear the Travelling Villains

Aston Villa may not have played since last month – owing to last week’s canceled fixture due to COVID-19 – but so far this season the Villains have shown a real ability to claim points away from Villa Park. Dean Smith’s team has taken nine of the available 12 points away from home this campaign, with wins at Fulham, Arsenal and Leicester, with the 2-1 loss at West Ham the only blemish – also the only two goals Villa have conceded on the road.

With talisman Jack Grealish available to play after escaping punishment for breaking coronavirus restrictions last weekend, Villa will be eager to get back to winning ways after losing two straight in the Premier League, and four of their last five.

With a Midlands derby against Wolves looming on Saturday, Villa will be thankful that they are headed to Molineux for the game, where they have only ever lost once in the Premier League – back in November last year. Wolves didn’t enjoy their last taste of Premier League action, getting a 4-0 thrashing against Liverpool, but have lost just once at home this season, with two wins and two draws as well.

Pick: Villa (+230)

Goal-shy Gunners Going to Struggle

Arsenal have struggled in the Premier League recently, picking up just one point from the last 12 available to them, with the 13 points accumulated after 10 games their lowest such tally in 39 years.

But while their defense has been fairly solid, it’s upfront where the real problems lie. The only goal they’ve scored in their last five Premier League games was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s winning penalty at Manchester United, and only three clubs have scored fewer than their 10 goals – the three clubs currently occupying the relegation zone.

One of those clubs is Burnley, but with three draws already, Sean Dyche’s club has shown it knows how to grind out a point, particularly on the road, where it has registered two goalless draws already.

Given Arsenal’s inability to score, and the Clarets’ ability to frustrate, look for another goalless draw at the Emirates on Sunday.

Pick: Draw (+310)

Seagulls Set to Soar?

Leicester City may still be sitting fourth in the table, but they haven’t done it on the strength of their form at home. In five games played at King Power Stadium, the Foxes have lost three games, with just two wins. Not surprisingly, the team has also posted a negative goal differential in those games, with six goals for versus eight against.

To make matters worse, Leicester will be missing starting center back Caglar Soyuncu and right back Ricardo Pereira, while fullback Timothy Castagne will be a game-time decision. That lack of defensive stability has cost the Foxes of late, particularly in their 2-1 loss at home to Fulham two match days ago.

So Brighton will be feeling confident ahead of their trip to the Midlands on Sunday, particularly for a club that is long overdue its fair share of luck, as last weekend’s controversial penalty that handed Southampton the points illustrated perfectly.

The Seagulls are one of the better teams in the EPL in terms of possession, and have a positive goal differential away from the Amex Stadium, but have just seven points from the 15 available in those games. Back the Seagulls to take something home from Leicester.

Pick: Draw (+240)

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