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PSG vs Lille Odds & Prediction – Ligue 1 Round 12

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Oct 29, 2021 · 6:33 AM PDT

PSG vs Lille
PSG's Neymar reacts after having objects thrown at him from the crowd during the French League One soccer match between Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain in Marseille, France, Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)
  • PSG host Lille in the 12th Matchday of France’s Ligue 1, on Friday, October 29th, at 3:00 pm EST
  • Paris have a commanding lead atop the French top-flight table, while the defending champions, Lille, currently sit all the way back in tenth place
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

France’s Ligue 1 kicks off this weekend with what should be a very competitive match between PSG and Lille on Friday afternoon.

Firstly, the match will be played at the Parc des Princes, which is good news for PSG. They have played seven games at their home ground in all competitions, winning all seven and outscoring opponents 19-6. After facing a raucous crowd against Marseille last weekend, the PSG players will probably be looking forward to playing in their home environment.

Furthermore, this is the second time these clubs have met already this season. The first was the Trophee des Champions, while Lille won on a narrow 1-0 scoreline thanks to an early Xeko goal. Paris was not full strength in this match, but either way, this should give the visitors come needed confidence coming into this match.

PSG vs Lille Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
PSG vs Lille PAR -1.5 (+100) | LIL +1.5 (-130) PAR -275 | LIL +800 | DRAW +425 Ov 2.5 (-150) | Un 2.5 (+120)

Odds as of Oct 29th at DraftKings

Lille’s Shocking Title Defense

Now, if this match was taking place last season, there would be a serious case for Lille to win this game against PSG outright. However, if you have looked at the Ligue 1 table lately, it is apparent that Lille are on pace for one of the worst title defenses on record. Through 11 games, they have only managed to gain 15 points, conceding 16 times already.

 

For reference, last year Lille obviously won the Ligue 1 trophy, edging out PSG by a mere point. The most impressive feat of their title campaign was their strength in defense, as they let in only 23 goals in 38 games. Also, they only managed to lose three times, which is an accomplishment they have already gone past this season.

Furthermore, having to play Champions League in the midweek during these struggles does not help their cause at all. In their last five matches, this poor form has been prevalent, as their only win came against Marseille. Meanwhile, they lost to Salzburg and Clermont Foot and drew to Sevilla and Brest.

PSG’s Injury List is Significant this Weekend

While Lille have their cards stacked against them, PSG will be missing a load of key players. As of right now, they will surely be without the likes of Achraf Hakimi, Marco Veratti, Sergio Ramos, Leonardo Parades and Kylian Mbappe.

But, training pictures and rumors are also pointing to the potential absence of Lionel Messi from Friday’s squad. In turn, a front three of Angel di Maria, Neymar and Mauro Icardi is not totally out of the realm of possibility.

PSG vs Lille Ligue 1 Statistics

PSG
VS
Lille
2.18 Goals per game 1.27
0.91 Goals conceded per game 1.45
62.60% Possession % 53.30%
90.50% Passing Accuracy % 81.40%
13.20 Shots per game 11.20

While this is not their normal standard by any means, it is still a trio of some of the world’s best attacking talent. It would have made for a much more difficult match last season, but they should be able to get their goals against a more lackadaisical Lille defense. Additionality, Messi has had quite a slow start to life in Paris, so a rest does not hurt him or the team.

YouTube video

With Veratti out, this also points to a possible opportunity for former Liverpool player Gini Wijnaldum to make another start for his new club. The Dutchman has not played much football under Mauricio Pochettino but could make a great effort in a box-to-box role in this match.

Watch Out for Jonathan David for Lille

Switching gears back to Lille, one player to watch for them is Jonathan David. The Canadian forward is a top talent and is one that PSG should be definitely planning to defend. He already has seven goals on the season and is by far Lille’s most threatening offensive weapon.

In their standard 4-4-2 formation, David will take up a spot on the front line. Normally, the 21-year-old is paired next to Burak Yilmaz, who he plays alongside quite nicely. If Lille plays aggressively and pushes on to win against PSG, expect David to play an incremental part.

PSG vs Lille Best Bet

Overall, the best bet in this match is Under 2.5 total goals with odds of +120. These odds have great value and this is a bet that has hit in their head-to-head matchups, five out of the last six times they have played. With some attacking players out for PSG, I expect this one to finish on a very narrow scoreline.

Pick: Under 2.5 total goals (+120)

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