Qarabag vs Newcastle Odds & Best Bets to Qualify

• Newcastle face a banana skin playoff tie against the  talented Azerbaijan outfit Qarabag
• The two sides meet at 12.45 pm ET on Wednesday for the first leg, with the return leg next Tuesday 
• Check out the ‘To Advance’ odds and my pick for the tie 

---

Newcastle really are the side that you can’t quite put your finger on this Champions League campaign. They have competed well with the big boys and then underperformed against the likes of Marseille. 

When the club were bought by PIF, there was a widespread feeling that they could be the next English and European powerhouse but that has not since materialised. They are still in the competition, though, and will be happy with their draw against Azerbaijani club Qarabag. 

Below, I have a look at the Qarabag vs Newcastle odds to advance market, as well as giving my pick and justification. 

Qarabag vs Newcastle Odds to Qualify (UCL Knockout Stage)

This is another tie where the odds to advance are pretty drastically different depending on the sportsbook. Qarabag are as short as +900 at some sites and a market-best +1200 at bet365. Newcastle ranges from -2500 to -3000 in the latest odds to advance to the round of 16.

Odds as of 12:40 pm ET, February 17th. See a complete list of where to legally bet in the US.

Newcastle vs Qarabag Pick to Advance 

• Pick: Newcastle to Advance to Round of 16 (-2500 at Caesars)

No one is suggesting you put a large chunk of change on Newcastle to advance at the steep price of -2500, but there’s little value on the other side and this is a usable part of a parlay.

Why Newcastle Will Eliminate Qarabag

Poor Showing on English Soil

In their last group stage game, Qarabag had a free hit against a struggling Liverpool. With nothing to lose and Liverpool in bad form, it looked like a good time for Qarabag to cause an upset – or at least put a scare into the Reds.

Instead, they lost 6-0. Liverpool had 33 shots in that game with Qarabag simply unable to disrupt Arne Slot’s side. Newcastle may not have the talent of Mo Salah, Dominik Szoboszlai, or Florian Wirtz, but they should overpower Qarabag over two legs. 

St James’ Park

If Anfield was a fortress to visit on a European night, St James’ Park next Tuesday will be a whole other ball game. The One Club City is among the best for creating a hometown atmosphere, particularly in a European knockout game. It will be a tough challenge for Qarabag to come into that second leg, likely needing a result and pulling off a comeback. 

Slip in the league 

Qarabag have won the Azerbaijani League in 11 of the last 12 seasons but find themselves in unfamiliar territory, trailing behind Sabah. The domestic campaign will have been more taxing than in previous years on the side. One could argue that they will be battle-hardened coming into this one; conversely, they may not be as fresh as they would have liked coming into a mammoth task. 

Newcastle Squad

Newcastle may not have the same eye-popping squad as some of their English cohorts, hence why they are not one of the favorites in the Champions League title odds, but they have more than enough talent to outmatch Qarabag. Backed by PIF, they have been able to put together a strong squad to compete in Europe and are understandable favourites for the tie. They are a well-balanced team that should be able to adjust to much of what Qarabag have to offer.

Rich Goal Form

Losing star forward Alexander Isak to Liverpool appeared to be a hammer blow for Newcastle, but nobody told Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes that. Gordon is fourth in the race for the Golden Boot with a scintillating six goals, while Harvey Barnes has scored five. Only Newcastle and Barcelona have two players in the top 10 in the race for the Golden Boot. The Magpies won’t be short of goal threats over the two legs. 

While Qarabag are a talented outfit, they should expect their European run to come to an end here. Not coasting domestically like in previous years signals a small regression, while Newcastle simply have a squad size and quality that cannot be matched by many other clubs. Throw in the fact that two of their attacking players are significantly overperforming expectations in Europe and this should be a straightforward task for Eddie Howe’s side, even with the long journey to Western Asia. 

Check out SBD’s comprehensive coverage of Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League games, including:

• A.I. Picks for All Four Champions League Games Today
• Galatasaray vs Juventus Prediction, Player-Prop Picks & How to Watch
• Prediction & Goalscorer Picks for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
• Monaco vs PSG Prediction, Odds & Picks