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RB Leipzig vs Benfica Champions League Matchday 5 Odds, Picks & Betting Prediction

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 10:55 AM PDT

Red Bull Arena
The Red Bull Arena may yet see a Bundesliga title after RB's fine start to the season. Photo by Markus Unger (Wiki Commons)
  • It’s Matchday 5 in the UEFA Champions League next week
  • All to play for still in Group G with all four teams still able to qualify
  • RB Leipzig big odds-on favorites to beat Benfica at -208

Group G is still wide open going into Matchday 5 on November 27, and it’s top versus bottom at the Red Bull Arena (3:00 pm EST) in the penultimate round of group games in this season’s UEFA Champions League.

For Leipzig, a win will secure their place in the knockout phase and take them to the cusp of winning the group, while for Benfica a win would keep alive their faint hope of making top two. A more realistic target for them is the Europa League spot.

Unsurprisingly, the Germans are odds-on favorites for the win here but is there value elsewhere? We’ll take a close look.

RB Leipzig vs Benfica UCL Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
RB Leipzig -1.0 (-120) -208 O 3.0 (+102)
Benfica +1.0 (+104) +498 U 3.0 (-118)
Draw N/A +318 N/A

Odds taken on Nov. 22

Leipzig are nailed on winners of this game according to sportsbooks (-208) and a record of 3-0-1 suggests these odds are not far out. A win and they’re through to the knockout phase and everything points to them getting the job done with a game to spare, although they do have Lyon breathing down their neck in the battle for top spot.

For Benfica too there is still plenty left to play for, even after what has been up until now a disappointing campaign. As well as third place offering them a route into the Europa League, they also know that a win for them against Leipzig and Lyon failing to win in St. Petersburg will still offer them an outside chance of making top two. They have to believe.

 

RB in Control

This is only RB Leipzig’s second season in the Champions League but they have taken Group G by storm and look certs to make it to the knockout stages for the first time ever. A win here would seal the deal and they’ll be hoping for a repeat of their win against Benfica on Matchday 1.

On that evening in Lisbon in mid-September, two goals from Timo Werner set RB up for the win in the Estadio da Luza and, despite Benfica pulling one back late on through Haris Seferovic, it was the perfect start for the Germans. Matchday 2 didn’t go as well, however, and in their first home tie of the competition the Germans unexpectedly came up short against Lyon, who won 2-0 – goals from Memphis Depay and Martin Terrier

RB were quick to bounce back after the Lyon setback and two consecutive wins over Zenit St. Petersburg propelled them to the top of the group. The home tie in Leipzig was successfully negotiated first, goals from Konrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer enough to see them come back from a goal down, and then in the reverse fixture, RB showed their class to win 2-0 in more comfortable fashion – goals this time from Diego Demme and Sabitzer.

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Benfica Still With Europa League Chance

For Benfica, the home defeat by RB was the worst possible start but what followed away in St. Petersburg made it ten times worse, mainly due to the nature of the 3-1 defeat. In a listless, direction-less performance from the Portuguese, Zenit roared into a deserved 3-0 before Raul de Tomas scored a late consolation. Two defeats in two made it an uphill struggle for there.

A win for Benfica against Leipzig and Lyon failing to win in St Petersburg will still offer them an outside chance of making top two.

Their highlight of the group, however, came on Matchday 3 when they overturned the form book and out of the blue produced a fine performance to beat Lyon in the Estadio da Luz. A goal after four minutes from Rafa and another four minutes from time from Pizzi was enough for victory, even though Lyon had pulled level with 20 minutes left.

That was as good as it got for Benfica though, and in the reverse fixture in France, Lyon won 3-1- Seferovic getting the consolation for Benfica.

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Low Scoring Night in Leipzig?

So, this one is a big ask for Benfica although the potential prize of a place in the Europa League is a big one, and with Zenit at home in their final group game, a win here would give them a great chance. A repeat of the Lyon performance is called for. For RB, more of the same should be enough for the win and the psychological boost of the 2-1 win on opening day could be significant.

It won’t be a high scoring one though – Leipzig has scored just six times in their four games – but I do expect the Germans to edge it.

Pick: RB Leipzig to win 1-0

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