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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Spanish Supercopa Final Odds & Pick

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 3:51 PM PDT

Simeone Atletico
Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone will be hoping to lead his team to Spanish Super Cup glory in Saudi Arabia after overseeing their semifinal win over Barcelona. Photo By Anton Zaytsev (Wiki Commons)
  • For the first time the Supercopa de España is a four-team tournament
  • A Madrid derby for the second time this season
  • Real+125 favorites to win the match in normal time

Traditionally, the Supercopa de España – the Spanish Super Cupis contested by the winners of La Liga and winners of the Copa del Rey, but for 2019/20 it has been extended into a four-team tournament to include the runners up of both competitions. For this season and the next two, it will be held in the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

In the first semifinal – held on Wednesday evening – Real Madrid beat Valencia 3-1 to earn their place in the final, with Atletico Madrid doing the same 24 hours later thanks to a surprise 3-2 win over Barcelona. The final takes place this Sunday, January 12 at 1:00 pm EST.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds to Lift Trophy
Real Madrid pk, -0.5 (-109) +125 O 2.5 (+100) -155
Atletico Madrid pk, +0.5 (-111) +210 U 2.5 (-120) +125
Draw N/A +220 N/A N/A

All odds taken Jan. 10

The Madrid Derby Take 2

A late comeback from Atleti in their semi against Barca saw them beat the La Liga leaders, with Diego Simeone’s team scoring twice in the last ten minutes to set up a clash with city rivals Real Madrid. Real made the final without needing any late heroics and their 3-1 win over Valencia was fairly comfortable; goals coming from Toni Kroos, Isco and Luka Modric.

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So, the final is the latest episode of the Madrid Derby, where high-flying Real go toe-to-toe with an Atletico team known for its organization, grit and resilience, and will make for an interesting spectacle with the stark contrast in styles.

Historically, Real have, unsurprisingly, always had the upper hand in these clashes with 110 wins as compared to 56 for Atleti but after their recent resurgence, Atletico are now a club that competes with the best, not only domestically but also in Europe. This has meant an intensifying of the rivalry although even during this period Real have still managed to remain the dominant force. The most recent meeting between these two, earlier this season in the La Liga, ended in a goalless draw.

Real the Form Team

Zinedine Zidane’s men, after a shaky start to the season, are Spain’s in-form team and have hit a rich vein of form, having gone 15 games unbeaten. Los Blancos’ last defeat was way back in October when they were beaten by Mallorca and are currently second in La Liga, only trailing leaders Barcelona on goal difference. Everything here points to a Real win.

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But Atleti are also on a good run of form and have won five of their last six matches. Simeone’s team have always been well-known for their structure and sound defense and this team is no different. They have also managed to add a potent attack to their armory; something many thought wouldn’t be possible after losing Antione Griezmann to Barca in the summer.

They don’t, however, have a good record against Real in high-profile finals, and will be looking to claim back some ground after losing to their city rivals in Champions League finals in 2014 and 2016.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head

Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
2nd Position in La Liga 3rd
58% Win percentage in 2019/20 47%
2.11 Form rating 1.84
1.89 Average goals scored 1.60
0.63 Average goals conceded 0.60
33 La Liga titles 10
31 Domestic cups 15

Real Injury Crisis? What Injury Crisis?

Zidane has had to juggle his resources this season – some of his big-names have missed significant game time through injury – which has made the unbeaten run all the more remarkable. He’s had to contend with the absence of big summer signing, Eden Hazard, who is expected to also miss this final, along with striker Karim Benzema who’s also expected to miss out. Gareth Bale and Lucas Vasquez also look likely to be unavailable.

For Atletico, Diego Costa is expected to be out until late January along with Thomas Lemar, and Sime Vrsaljko, who missed the Barcelona game, is another who is considered doubtful. But, these three aside, Simeone has a fit and healthy squad to pick from, and may well name an unchanged line-up for the final.

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Expect It to Go to the Wire

So, we should expect a tight one, with Real enjoying the lion’s share of possession but with Atleti set up to frustrate them and deny them time and space, especially in the final third. Zidane and Simeone both know what to expect from the other and so early on, in particular, it will resemble a game of chess. As ever, it will be likely decided by either a piece of individual brilliance or a mistake, and there are few teams better equipped to deal with Real’s superstars than Atleti.

Part of me is tempted by the +220 on offer for Simeone’s men to edge it by the odd goal in normal time, but it could take extra-time and maybe penalties to decide the destiny of the trophy.

Pick: Atleti to win after extra-time (+125)

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