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Serie A Matchday 23 Odds & Picks: Milan Derby Features Two In-Form Sides

Ryan Metivier

By Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated: March 18, 2021 at 12:59 pm EDT

Published:


Serie A Matchday 23
Inter Milan's Romelu Lukaku celebrates after scores with penalty against Lazio during a Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Lazio at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Can Sassuolo stay hot after upsetting Roma?
  • Inter Milan and AC Milan meet in Sunday’s Derby della Macdonnina
  • Get the odds and best bets for Serie A Matchday 23 beginning on Friday below

Matchday 23 in Italy’s Serie A begins Friday, February 7, with Roma hosting Bologna looking to rebound from a heavy defeat to Sassuolo last weekend and ends with the Milan Derby on Sunday afternoon when Inter hosts AC Milan.

Read on for the odds and best bets from this weekend’s card in Serie A.

Serie A Matchday 23 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Roma -1.0 (EVEN) -165 O 3.0 (-120)
Bologna +1.0 (-120) +400 U 3.0 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +335 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Fiorentina +0.5 (EVEN) +310 O 2.5 (-140)
Atalanta -0.5 (-120) -115 U 2.5 (+115)
Draw N/A +270 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Torino -0.5 (+115) +115 O 2.5 (+110)
Sampdoria +0.5 (-140) +250 U 2.5 (-135)
Draw N/A +225 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Verona +1.0 (-105) +575 O 2.5 (-105)
Juventus -1.0 (-115) -190 U 2.5 (-115)
Draw N/A +295 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Spal 0.0 (EVEN) +170 O 2.5 (-115)
Sassuolo 0.0 (-120) +155 U 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +230 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Brescia 0.0 (-115) +165 O 2.5 (-105)
Udinese 0.0 (-105) +170 U 2.5 (-115)
Draw N/A +230 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Genoa 0.0 (-135) +140 O 2.5 (-105)
Cagliari 0.0 (+110) +195 U 2.5 (-115)
Draw N/A +240 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Napoli -2.0 (EVEN) -500 O 3.5 (+105)
Lecce +2.0 (-120) +1300 U 3.5 (-125)
Draw N/A +575 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Parma +0.5 (+115) +350 O 3.0 (+105)
Lazio -0.5 (-140) -135 U 3.0 (-130)
Draw N/A +300 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Inter Milan -0.5 (EVEN) -105 O 2.5 (+110)
AC Milan +0.5 (-120) +300 U 2.5 (-130)
Draw N/A +245 N/A

All odds taken Feb. 4

Pick 1: Spal vs Sassuolo

Sunday morning’s matches kick off bright and early at 6:30 am EST with 20th-place Spal hosting 13th-place Sassuolo. Last weekend Spal suffered their league-worst 15th defeat on the season when they were crushed 5-1 on the road to title-chasers Lazio. While Lazio were always to be favored to finish with all three points, the game was over well before halftime as both Ciro Immobile and Felipe Caicedo each recorded a brace inside of 38 minutes. A fifth by Bobby Adekanye at 58′ gave the Romans a 5-0 lead before a 65th-minute goal from Spal avoided the clean sheet.

And while the road loss may have been expected, Spal have been no more successful at home where they have just two wins in ten matches, to go with nine goals scored and 16 conceded. If anything, the Biancazzuri have seen more recent success on their travels where they’ve defeated both Atalanta and Torino since December 21. Their last home win came back on October 5 to Parma. In fact, when you consider their lone other victory came early on against Lazio, Spal’s better performances have typically come against the higher-ranked sides in the league.

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Sassuolo is not one of those sides, however, they are undefeated in three matches, most recently having stunned Roma 4-2 in a home win on Saturday. It was a shocking start for Roma who fell behind 3-0 inside of 26 minutes, before a sequence which saw them score at the 55′, suffer a red card in the 69′ and score a penalty in the 73′ to close the gap to 3-2. Just a minute later Sassuolo would put the game to bed by extending the lead to 4-2.

While the Neroverdi have been poor on the road with just two wins on the season and none in their past three, their recent Serie A matches since 2017-18 have seen Sassuolo go undefeated vs Spal in five matches. Sassuolo has won three and drawn twice vs Spal, including a 3-0 win in September.

Despite their poor road form, +155 odds (shortened already from +170) for a straight Sassuolo win look too good to pass up against a struggling Spal side. If you want to play it a little safer, “Draw No Bet” at -125 should also be considered.

Pick(s): Sassuolo (+155) / DNB (-125)

Pick 2: Genoa vs Cagliari

These teams have seen completely different fortunes this Serie A season with Cagliari jostling for European places in sixth place with 32 points and Genoa in the midst of a relegation battle in 18th with just 16 points.

However, neither team are playing their best soccer at the moment with Cagliari ranking 17th and Genoa 19th in the form guide over their past ten matches. The two meet on Sunday at 9:00 am EST.

https://twitter.com/Foet247Europe/status/1224306528007720960?s=20

Genoa are coming off a surprising 2-2 away draw to fourth-place Atalanta on the weekend in a match where they actually held a brief 2-1 lead. It was their second draw in a row following a 0-0 stalemate with Fiorentina. Though they’ve failed to win in the league in four matches, at home Il Grifone have contributed to the scoresheet in seven of their ten home matches at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The flipside to that being they’ve kept just a single clean sheet.

This points to what could be an open game where Cagliari visit, having conceded the most goals (34) of any side inside the top 10. On their travels, Cagliari are an even 16 goals scored and allowed in 11 matches. While they’ve found the back of the net in all but one road match, they’ve also kept just two clean sheets on their travels and none prior to November 3. Since that 2-0 win over Napoli, the Sardinians have conceded at least two goals away from home in five of six, scoring in all but one (to Juventus) themselves.

A 2-2 home draw to Parma last matchday, was their third-straight stalemate, with all three seeing both teams on the scoresheet.

Earlier this season, Cagliari were 3-1 winners on their home ground in September. The result was the tenth time in 12 matches both teams have scored in the matchup. “Over” 2.5 goals has also cashed in 8/12 of those matches.

Pick: Both teams to score (-145)

Pick 3: Inter Milan vs AC Milan

The Milan Derby goes down on Sunday afternoon at 2:45 pm EST at the San Siro, on the pitch each team calls home. Recent history definitely tilts in the favor of Inter, with Milan winning just once against Inter in their past eight meetings across Serie A and Coppa Italia. Inter holds a three-game winning streak and 4-3-1 (WDL) record over that time, including September’s 2-0 win. Milan’s lone win also came in extra-time of the Coppa Italia in 2017, meaning Milan has yet to defeat Inter in the league or within regular time since January 2016.

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Milan drew 1-1 to Verona this past weekend but were forced to do without Andea Conti, Simon Kjaer, Ismael Bennecar, Rade Krunic and the recently signed Zlatan Ibrahimovic who missed out with the flu.

Ibra has made an immediate impact at Milan upon his arrival. The team has four wins and one draw in games in which he’s featured. As a whole, Milan is now undefeated across their past seven matches in all competitions, winning five. Look back a little further, and the club have just a single defeat in their past 12. During their seven-match undefeated streak, they’ve recorded three clean sheets and outscored their opponents 14-5.

https://twitter.com/Netbet_NG/status/1221817217534349312?s=20

When playing at the San Siro, Milan tasted defeat just once in their past eight league matches. Scorelines have also been low, falling “Under” 2.5 in four of the past five.

Inter have been hard to break down at the San Siro themselves, having gone 6-4-1, while scoring 19 and conceding just eight. However, they’ve had a few slip-ups of late with back-to-back 1-1 home draws with Cagliari and Atalanta. They also conceded away to 17th-place Lecce in a 1-1 draw. They did end that run of three draws with a 2-0 road win to Udinese on Sunday, thanks to a brace by Romelu Lukaku.

With much on the line for both sides — Milan level on points with Cagliari and Parma for sixth, and Inter aiming to keep pace with leaders Juventus in the title race, I can see a tight affair where each team shares the spoils.

Picks: Both teams to score (-120), Under 2.5 (-130), Draw (+245)

Ryan Metivier
Ryan Metivier

Sports Editor

Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com

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