Serie A Matchday 34 Odds & Picks: Roma vs Inter Milan, Juventus vs Lazio & More

• Serie A’s Matchday 34 kicks off on Saturday with ten matches across Saturday-Monday
• Game of the week features Juventus vs Lazio on Monday afternoon
• Read on for the full Matchday 34 odds as well as our best bets for the week

The title race has been slowly slipping out of the reach for Lazio after a winless run of four-straight matches, but equally poor results for Juventus have left the window just barely open (for Lazio and others) as the two sides meet in a marquee match Monday afternoon. Both Brescia and SPAL lost once again in midweek, but bad luck if you were hoping to continue to fade them, as they play each other this weekend.

It’s Atalanta who continues to impress in Serie A as they have yet to lose since the league restarted and blew away Brescia 6-2 in midweek. Elsewhere Sassuolo went toe-to-toe with Juventus in a 3-3 draw, results which contributed to Matchday 33 combining to see 37 total goals. That’s the second-highest scoring round since the restart with Round 29 seeing 40 goals.

In fact, it’s almost been harder to pick out a game that won’t see goals scored in Italy, as OVER 2.5 totals are now 55-19. That’s wild. Bet an UNDER at your own risk.

It was another successful betting week in Serie A last round, so let’s hope it continues as we look forward to Matchday 34 below.

Serie A Matchday 34 Odds

All odds taken July 16

Pick 1: Cagliari vs Sassuolo

No two teams may be in a more different current form than Cagliari and Sassuolo since Serie A resumed. They were both stuck in mid-table limbo when the league resumed and Cagliari’s results have pretty much reflected that. Two wins in eight, none in their past five and a record of 2-3-3.

Despite a decent haul of 48 goals on the season, they’ve now scored just once in their past five matches, a 1-1 draw with Bologna. What followed was a 1-0 defeat, two 0-0 draws and most recently a 3-0 beat-down to 14th-placed Sampdoria on Wednesday. Their expected goals since the restart rank 17th at 7.25. They’ve actually scored seven.

That doesn’t bode well for their match against Sassuolo on Saturday afternoon at 1:30 pm EST. Sassuolo has been the most exciting team outside of Atalanta in Serie A since the restart and have pulled themselves within striking distance of European contention.

The situation of #SerieATIM after matchday 33. #WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/4uVlLnBL2k

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) July 16, 2020

Roberto De Zerbi’s men are now just six points back of Napoli who occupy sixth place and the final Europa League position. This comes off the back of a run that has seen them go 4-3-1 since the restart, with their lone defeat coming in their first match against Atalanta, a 4-1 defeat.

That loss was not only their only defeat of late but also the only time they’ve failed to score multiple goals in a game. In their past seven outings, they scored two goals twice, three on four occasions and even four once. All told their games have been wild with 21 goals scored and 18 conceded since the restart.

Last Saturday they defeated third-place Lazio 2-1 despite fielding a heavily rotated lineup and on Wednesday they took on the leaders Juventus and left with a share of the points in a 3-3 draw. Sassuolo are a team that’s flying high on confidence right now and even falling 2-0 behind early to Juventus was not enough to demoralize them. They responded with three goals to take a 3-2 lead over the champions and Juve were forced to settle for a draw with Alex Sandro’s 64′ minute equalizer.

Sassuolo held the edge in possession (56-percent), attempts (16-13) and shots on goal (12-6). If they can do that against Juventus, they should create plenty of scoring opportunities against Cagliari, an opponent that has often created high-scoring results when the two sides meet.

On Matchday 15, the teams drew 2-2 after Sassuolo took an early 2-0 lead. Last season, the teams drew 2-2 in Cagliari and Sassuolo won 3-0 on their home ground. While results in the 2017/18 season were only 1-0 (Sassuolo) and 0-0, 2016/17 saw Cagliari win 4-3 and Sassuolo win 6-2.

Sassuolo to win at odds of +110 looks like great value, but betting them to simply score at least two goals looks like the safest bet. I bet this at -120 earlier and it’s already moved to -135.

Pick: Sassuolo to score Over 1.5 goals (-135)

Pick 2: Roma vs Inter Milan

Two top-five sides highlight the Saturday action when Roma hosts Inter Milan at 3:45 pm EST.

For Inter, they are now second in the table and just six points back of Juventus for the title, meaning they’ve vaulted themselves back into the discussion after Juve’s poor run of form. Roma meanwhile, are just four points ahead of Napoli and AC Milan for direct qualification in the Europa League.

Roma began the restart with a win but then dropped three-straight results. However, more recently have strung together three wins 2-1 (Parma), 3-0 (Brescia) and 2-1 (Verona) on Wednesday.  Roma have now scored in 5/7 matches since the restart but have also conceded in all but one, and that one came against 19th-place Brescia.

After last night’s victory against #Verona, our partners have secured 9 points in their last 3 fixtures. 🤩 ⚽#ASRoma #ForzaRoma https://t.co/ZAoj2spx4H

— Qatar Airways (@qatarairways) July 16, 2020

Inter Milan’s results have also seen plenty of goals at both ends. They’ve kept just two clean sheet since the restart, coincidentally also against Brescia, a 6-0 win and also most recently against SPAL on Thursday, a 4-0 win. Otherwise, their other matches have seen both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 totals cashing in all six.

Earlier this season the teams ended deadlocked at 0-0. It was actually the fourth-straight draw between the sides in Serie A, with previous results ending 1-1, 2-2 and 1-1. Not counting the most recent 0-0 result, both teams contributed to the scoresheet in nine of the ten previous matches.

Roma will have a slight edge with an extra days rest having played midweek on Wednesday, versus Thursday, and will have the home advantage, despite no fans being in attendance. But I simply don’t trust either team’s defense to keep a clean sheet right now, with plenty of attacking options on the field in this one.

Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals (-125)

Pick 3: Juventus vs Lazio

When Serie A returned, this fixture at 3:45 pm EST Monday afternoon on July 20 had the makings of a serious clash between two title contenders who could’ve been fighting down to the very end for a chance at the Scudetto. Lazio were just a single point back of Juventus when the league resumed play but now find themselves eight points adrift of the summit with just five matches to go.

If Lazio wishes to keep their slim chances of catching Juven alive, this one should still make for an exciting watch. However, it seems neither side is too keen in the past few rounds of either stamping their mark on the title or making a serious challenge to unseat the holders.

Juventus' game yesterday was the first time Cristiano Ronaldo hadn't scored or assisted in league play since Dec. 1, 2019!

His 18-game streak comes to an end. pic.twitter.com/9lmaHM92GZ

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) July 16, 2020

Lazio have looked easily the worse of the sides, with their smaller squad struggling to maintain the pace they showed pre-lockdown. Their return to play began with a thud, losing 3-2 to Atalanta after leading early 2-0. Though they won each of their next two matches, each came by the smallest of margins (2-1) and were not overly impressive.

They are now on a run which sees them winless in four, 0-1-3, after three-straight losses and a 0-0 draw to Udinese on Wednesday. In fact, despite 68 goals on the season (fourth), they have generated the third-fewest expected goals since Serie A returned at 6.86 per Understat. That’s better than only Bologna and last-placed SPAL.

Juventus still looks to be the likely champions once again and did come out of the break with four-straight wins. However, they too, have slumped in recent showings with a 4-2 loss to AC Milan and draws to Atalanta (2-2) and Sassuolo (3-3). Against Milan and Sassuolo they coughed up two-goal leads and escaping with a draw from the Atalanta match was only made possible due to two PK goals.

Recent results say we should see a few goals scored on Monday. The past three head-to-heads 5/7 have seen both teams score and OVER 2.5 goal totals. In fact, the past two results, one in the league and one in the Super Cup, have seen four total goals, each won 3-1 by Lazio. The matchup has been pretty even of late, with Lazio winning four of those seven meetings, while Juventus have won three.

Neither team has looked overly strong of late and both have proved more than capable of conceding goals. I still trust Juve a little more, but this is the last stop on the ride for Lazio to keep the glimmer of a title alive. They’ll at least find the scoresheet, but so too will Juventus.

Pick: Both teams to score and OVER 2.5 goals (+105)