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Serie A Round 10 Odds and Picks: Top Six Meeting Between Roma vs Sassuolo & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Dec 3, 2020 · 9:02 AM PST

Roma meets Sassuolo in Serie A Round 10
Roma's Henrikh Mkhitaryan, left, celebrates after scoring his side's 2nd goal during a Serie A soccer match between Roma and Parma at Rome's Olympic stadium, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
  • Serie A Round 10 kicks off on Saturday, December 5, 2020
  • Last season Roma and Sassuolo each won 4-2 at home in their head-to-head matchups
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Round 10 here

Italy’s Serie A Round 10 kicks off with three matches on Saturday, followed bu six on Sunday and one on Monday afternoon. The weekend is highlighted with a top-six match between AS Roma vs Sassuolo. Elsewhere, both Juventus (home to Torino) and AC Milan (away to Sampdoria) will look to stay undefeated on the year.

With a 1-0 win at home to Crotone last weekend, Bologna finally snapped their streak of conceding in 41-straight league games. However, on the road to title-challengers Inter Milan on Saturday afternoon, it seems unlikely they’ll be able to replicate that result again. But with Inter playing midweek in the Champions League and preparing for another key match in the competition next week, Bologna could stand a chance of pulling an upset over a distracted Inter side.

If you’re betting totals this weekend, each of Torino, Roma, Spezia and Sampdoria have been the biggest OVER betting teams. They’re all at 7-2 to OVER 2.5 goals. At the other end, Verona’s matches have offered fewer fireworks. They have the top UNDER record, being 6-3 to UNDER 2.5 goals.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Round 10 schedule below.

Serie A Round 10 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Spezia vs Lazio +450 +300 -163
Juventus vs Torino -250 +400 +650
Inter Milan vs Bologna -223 +375 +550
Verona vs Cagliari +105 +275 +240
Parma vs Benevento +110 +260 +240
Roma vs Sassuolo -150 +333 +350
Udinese vs Atalanta +250 +260 +105
Crotone vs Napoli +700 +425 -275
Sampdoria vs AC Milan +350 +300 -138
Fiorentina vs Genoa -138 +300 -138

All odds taken Dec 3 at Bet365

Roma vs Sassuolo

One of three 9:00 am EST Serie A Round 10 kickoffs on Sunday morning sees third-place Sassuolo traveling to sixth-place Roma in a key top-of-the-table clash.

Sassuolo was one of three sides to still be undefeated heading into Round 9 last week. The others being AC Milan and Juventus. While the latter two remained unscathed, Sassuolo suffered their first defeat of the year, losing 3-0 at home to Inter Milan.

Inter scored early just four minutes in and doubled their lead ten minutes later through a Sassuolo own goal. They would add a third in the 60′ minute. The defeat was not for a lack of effort as Sassuolo held 61-percent possession and completed 643 passes to Inter’s 302. Sassuolo had the advantage in attacks (156-55) and dangerous attacks (73-22), but it was just not their night.

It was a rare result to see Roberto De Zerbi’s side held off the scoresheet. Entering the match they had scored 20 goals on the season and in seven of their previous eight, netting multiple times in six.

Their hosts, Roma, are coming off a heavy defeat of their own, losing 4-0 on the road to Napoli. Playing with the added motivation of honoring Diego Maradona, Napoli led 1-0 at the half, 2-0 in the 64′ and added two more in the final ten minutes. Napoli put nine shots on frame while Roma could only manage a single shot on target.

It was a rare defeat this season for Roma. They had been undefeated since dropping their opening game of the season to Verona. Since they had been 5-2-0 and had outscored their opponents 20-8 before the Napoli loss.

Factor in Roma’s successes in the Europa League as well, and the Giallorossi had been undefeated in 11. They were also riding a five-match win streak prior to last weekend. Their Europa League commitments will continue this week with a Matchday 5 Group Stage game at home to Swiss side Young Boys. The extra fixture could leave them slightly fatigued for the weekend.

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Last season these sides played out to very entertaining contests with each team taking the full three points on their own ground. Roma were 4-2 winners in September, while Sassuolo won by an identical score in February.

While another six-goal thriller may be hard to replicate, it’s hard to see either of these sides being held off the scoresheets in back-to-back games. While both have also shown some defensive frailties of late.

Roma ranks second in expected goals at 20.1, while Sassuolo is seventh at 14.3 according to Fbref.com. When it comes to shots on target Sassuolo are fifth (47) and Roma sixth (46). While both rank in the top ten when it comes to final third passing. I expect this match to have a few goals bringing both teams to score and OVER 2.5 goals (-150) or both teams to score and OVER 3.5 (+120) for more value into play.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-150)

Udinese vs Atalanta

At 9:00 am EST Sunday morning, 13th-placed Udinese will host eighth-placed Atalanta in Serie A Round 10 play.

After falling just short of a possible title year last season, expectations were large for Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta this season. But La Dea has been fairly inconsistent this season at 4-2-3 (WDL). After last week’s 2-0 home defeat to Hellas Verona, they’re now winless in three in Serie A, They also have just one win in their past six.

Atalanta’s typically high-flying offense has also been held in check during that timeframe too. Atlanta has scored just one goal in three games and has scored multiple goals just once in six.

On Tuesday, Atalanta was involved in Champions League play in what looked to be a straightforward home win over Danish club Midtjylland. They had already defeated the Danes 4-0 in Denmark earlier in the competition. However, Atalanta fell behind early at home and was made to fight for a single point, not scoring until the 79′ minute to end level at 1-1.

The result puts Atalanta second in Group D with eight points. Too far behind Liverpool to top the group, but not too far ahead Ajax with seven points in third. Atalanta will travel to the Netherlands on Wednesday in a match that will decide who qualifies in second in the group.

Flipping back to league play, their opponents this weekend, Udinese have just ten points. However, seven of them have come in their past three matches. Udinese is coming off a 3-1 win over Lazio last weekend. That follows a 1-0 win over Genoa and a 0-0 draw with Sassuolo.

Last year Atalanta blew through the Bianconeri’s defense scoring ten times in their two matches in 7-1 and 3-2 wins. Add to that 2-0, 3-1 and 2-0 wins in the three matches prior, and historically this looks on paper to be a straightforward Atalanta win.

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However, Udinese’s defense has tightened up of late, while Atalanta’s offense has proved unreliable. Add in the fact that Gasperini may elect to rotate with a huge Champions League match upcoming and that opens the door for some value on Udinese.

A straight win may be pushing it, so a draw (+260) or double chance (win or draw) at -138 bet looks to be good value.

Pick: Udinese Double Chance (-138)

Fiorentina vs Genoa

Serie A Round 10 concludes with a single match on Monday seeing 17th-place Fiorentina hosting 19th-placed Genoa. The teams are separated by just three points and both are currently in dire form.

As the table would suggest, neither team has started the 2020-21 campaign strong. Fiorentina is 2-2-5 (WDL) with ten goals scored and 15 conceded. Their counterparts, Genoa, sit at 1-2-6 with just eight goals scored and 18 conceded.

La Viola opened the season in respectable fashion with two wins and a draw in their first five. But, they’ve fallen off with zero wins since October 25. Fiorentina is now 0-1-3 in their past four matches. Most recently they fell on the road 2-0 to AC Milan last weekend. Milan jumped out to an early 2-0 lead just 28 minutes into the match. They actually could’ve been ahead by more, considering they missed a penalty near the end of the first half.

What’s even more concerning for Fiorentina is that they’ve failed to score in any of those four matches. Fiorentina even lost 1-0 at home to the newly-promoted Benevento and failed to score against a typically shaky Parma backline.

Genoa’s form is no better. They haven’t won since the opening day of the season, a 4-1 home win over Crotone. That’s their only win and also accounts for half of their total goals scored on the season.

Last round they fell 2-1 at home to Parma, which was their fourth-straight defeat.

Few matches in Serie A usually look as good an UNDER bet as this one. This matchup is historically very low-scoring. Last year Genoa won 2-1 at home, while the teams drew 0-0 in Florence. In the 2018/19 season, both of their matches ended 0-0.

In the past 12 meetings, only three have seen more than two goals scored. While eight of those 12 have ended drawn, and six of those draws ended scoreless.

Pick your poison for this one. A draw at (+300) would offer the best value but betting UNDER 2.5 also looks like a great bet. The UNDER was being offered at even-money but is now listed at -110.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

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