- The Serie A season is ready to kick off this weekend with its first round of fixtures, leaving bettors wondering who could finish the Italian top flight as top scorer
- Cristiano Ronaldo is the clear favorite to win the award, with Duvan Zapata of Atalanta and Ciro Immobile of Lazio as close leaders behind him
- See the odds, our analysis and betting prediction for the Capocannoniere below
Most European football leagues have already kicked off and gotten underway. However, Serie A starts its 38 game campaign this weekend, meaning that bettors have to start thinking about who will finish the season as top scorer. Serie A has truly started to turn back around the past couple of years into a league full of unpredictability, and more importantly, depth.
In fact, just in the past few years, fans have been witness to some incredible feats in Italian football. We have seen the scoring machine that is Atalanta come to life, the resurgence of football across Milano, and the downfall of some legendary clubs like Roma and Juventus. Serie A truly has seven quality teams that could compete in any European league. As a result, there are dozens of world-class players vying to win the right to call themselves Serie A’s top scorer.
Serie A Top Scorer Odds
|Moya Borja Mayoral||+3300|
Odds as of Aug 18 at Bet365
Furthermore, there are surely some big favorites at the top of the odds list. Cristiano Ronaldo is a near sure-fire pick in any goals competition. In fact, not only did he win last year’s top scorer award in Serie A, but he also took home the Golden Boot at the Euro 2020 tournament.
Nonetheless, there are some other valuable picks in this table between the likes of Duvan Zapata, Ciro Immobile and Lautaro Martinez. Additionally, as Romelu Lukaku departs Inter Milan to go to Chelsea, that takes a huge favorite out of the running, in turn giving some smaller names a chance to get higher up the odds list.
Duvan Zapata and Ciro Immobile are Overvalued Picks
Two of the names on this chart that stand out as overvalued are surely the second and third favorites, Zapata and Immobile. Zapata played in all but one game for Atalanta last season, and only managed 15 goals. Moreover, there are also six people last season who scored more goals than him with longer odds.
Marcus Thuram is another name in the list as potential new signing from Borussia Mönchengladbach.
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 18, 2021
Also, when you play in a side like Atalanta, you are sharing the goals with so many other attackers. For perspective, three of the top 17 goal scorers in Serie A, played for Atalanta last season.
Serie A Top Scorers Over Five Years
|2020/21||Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)||29|
|2019/20||Ciro Immobile (Lazio)||36|
|2018/19||Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria)||26|
|2017/18||Mauro Icardi/Ciro Immobile (Inter MIlan/Lazio)||29|
|2016/17||Edin Dzeko (Roma)||29|
This argument might seem contradictory given that Mo Salah can win the Golden Boot at Liverpool next to a star-studded attack. However, in the past five years, it has taken an average of 29.8 goals to be Serie A’s top scorer, compared to just 23.8 in the Premier League. To win this award in Italy you have to be the go-to attacker in your side, and I just cannot see Zapata doubling his output in the span of a year.
Next, I also do not see Ciro Immobile as a legitimate choice to be the Serie A top scorer. Immobile is 31 years old, and while he scored 36 goals in 2019/20, he regressed to only 20 last season. On top of that, he only scored two goals at the Euros and was overall, quite disappointing.
Ciro Immobile can become only the 3rd player EVER to score 20 or more goals in 6 different Serie A campaigns this season. Only one other Italian has ever done it.
Gunnar Nordahl 🇸🇪 7 times (1956)
Giuseppe Meazza 🇮🇹 6 times (1936)
— Shawn McIntosh (@shawn_mcintosh) August 18, 2021
Cristiano Ronaldo is the Easy Chalk Pick
Ronaldo is currently 36 years old, and somehow he is still the scoring favorite for nearly every competition he plays in. But, he backs it up by also walking home with those awards and stacking them up in his endless trophy cabinet.
Most Serie A goal involvements in the last 3 seasons:
Cristiano Ronaldo 🇵🇹🐐 – 97
Ciro Immobile 🇮🇹 – 92
Duvan Zapata 🇨🇴 – 78 pic.twitter.com/H6JxB4LmnP
— 𝐀 𝐙 𝐇 𝐀 𝐑 . (@Azharmk16) August 18, 2021
In all seriousness, Ronaldo has managed to find his feet well in Serie A over the past two seasons, scoring 29 and 31 goals respectively, compared to only 21 in 2018/19. The past two seasons, he has done so in only 33 games, which shows he can score goals in almost every single game he plays in.
Serie A Top Scorer Best Bet
Overall, the best bet for Serie A top scorer is Cristiano Ronaldo with odds of +225. Juventus did not have the best season last year, but all in all, it really does not matter. Ronaldo’s goals are inevitable, and so is him winning the Capocannorniere.
Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo (+225)