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Serie A Week 4 Odds & Picks: Napoli vs Atalanta, Inter Milan vs AC Milan and Udinese vs Parma

Inter's Romelu Lukaku
Inter Milan looks to gain three points and pass AC Milan in the table when the two meet in the Milan Derby this weekend in front of just 1,000 fans. Photo by @Inter_en (Twitter).
  • Serie A Week 4 kicks off on Saturday with matches over Saturday, Sunday and Monday
  • Several fixtures have been affected by positive COVID-19 tests
  • Read on for the odds and best bets from Serie A Week 4 below

With the international break complete, Italy’s Serie A resumes this weekend with Week 4 and several matches this weekend. The break has seen the coronavirus situation worsen in the league with three games off the board this week.

With 22 positive tests heading into the break, Genoa’s match against Verona on Monday was already at risk of being played with a youth team but looks to be off the board as of this writing.

Juventus, who benefitted from Napoli being barred from leaving Naples to play their last match due to two players testing positive, were given a 3-0  forfeit victory, but this week have their own COVID issues. Both Cristiano Ronaldo and Weston McKennie have tested positive and the entire Juventus squad is now in isolation. Juve’s game against Crotone on Saturday is currently off the board. Additionally, Parma has confirmed four positive tests and are training in isolation, meaning odds for their match against Udinese are also unavailable.

The biggest match of the weekend is the Milan Derby or Derby della Madonnina, though the effects of the virus have already taken a toll on both sides with several players testing positive.

Looking at the table, five teams are still undefeated in the league, while four have yet to taste victory.

Let’s take a look at the odds for each game this weekend along with our top picks from the slate below.

Serie A Week 4 Odds

Team  Odds
Napoli +160
Atalanta +162
Draw +250
Team Odds
Inter Milan +130
AC Milan +200
Draw +250
Team Odds
Sampdoria +230
Lazio +120
Draw +240
Team Odds
Crotone N/A
Juventus N/A
Draw N/A
Team Odds
Bologna +190
Sassuolo +130
Draw +260
Team Odds
Spezia +425
Fiorentina -163
Draw +300
Team Odds
Torino +110
Cagliari +240
Draw +250
Team Odds
Udinese N/A
Parma N/A
Draw N/A
Team Odds
Roma -300
Benevento +750
Draw +450
Team Odds
Verona N/A
Genoa N/A
Draw N/A

All odds taken Oct 15 at Bet365

Pick 1: Napoli vs Atalanta

Two in-form sides meet in Naples at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning to kick off Serie A Round 4.

Atalanta leads Serie A at 3-0-0 and has been electric offensively scoring 13 while conceding five. Alejandro Gomez is the current Serie A scoring leader with four goals already. Atalanta has already topped Torino 4-2, Lazio 4-1 and Cagliari 5-2.

Their offense will be put to the test against a Napoli defense which has been stingy so far having kept two clean sheets over Parma (2-0) and Genoa (6-0). Napoli was set to face Juventus in a huge clash in Round 3, however, after positive tests for the coronavirus, the team was not allowed to leave Naples for Turin by health officials. The match has been recorded as a forfeited 3-0 Juventus win, while Napoli has additionally been docked one point.

Let’s look back at the past 14 matches between these sides, 13 in Serie A and one in the Coppa Italia. Last season Atalanta won 2-0 at home and the teams drew 2-2 in Naples. Goals are usually in the cards when these sides meet with both teams scoring in 9/13 and both teams scoring and the total exceeding two goals cashing in 7/13. But three goals is usually where these teams tap out as only three times have they combined to score four goals.

I think we can find a lot of value by using Bet365’s Bet Builder option here in betting both teams to score and some combination of UNDER on total goals. Both teams to score and UNDER four goals is listed at +250, UNDER five goals is +115 or UNDER six goals is -143.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & UNDER 5 Goals (+115)

Pick 2: Inter Milan vs AC Milan

The Derby della Madonnina kicks off at 12:00 pm EST on Saturday afternoon with Inter tipped as the favorites.

Each of these teams are off to flying starts with AC Milan second in Serie A at 3-0-0 (9 points) and Inter Milan 2-1-0 (7 points) in fourth.

So early into the season some of these numbers could be a little deceiving. AC Milan have yet to concede on the season while scoring seven. They’ve won 2-0, 2-0 and 3-0, but those wins have come over Bologna, Crotone and Spezia. Crotone and Spezia are newly-promoted teams and combined those three teams are 2-0-7 (WDL) on the year. Wins are still wins though and AC Milan have now won five-straight and are undefeated in 15 matches in Serie A.

For Inter, they’ve been equal parts impressive on offense, but also concerning on defense. Their matches have seen the third-most average goals per game so far at 5.3. They defeated Fiorentina and Benevento 4-3 and 5-2 respectively, before drawing with Lazio 1-1 in their last match. Both Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have each scored three goals on the season and are tied in second in the scoring race.

Inter has held the edge in this rivalry of late having won each of the past four meetings in league play. Inter won 4-2 and 2-0 last season and 3-2 and 1-0 in the 2018/19 campaign. AC Milan actually have not won in this derby since January 31, 2016, a 1-0 win. Since that time Inter is 5-3-0 (WDL) in the league. AC Milan did win 1-0 in extra-time during the 2017 Coppa Italia.

Last season’s 4-2 Inter win was more impressive given they fell behind 2-0 half-time, only to bounce back with four second-half goals for the win.

Milan have had three positive coronavirus tests, with the most notable being Zlatan Ibrahimovic, though Ibra should be back after sitting out and recently testing negative. Leo Duarte and Matteo Gabbia will not be able to play. Ante Rebic is also set to miss out having yet to recover from an elbow injury.

Six players have tested positive at Inter recently, including both Milan Skriniar and Alessandro Bastoni, who were each starters in Inter’s back three during the last match against Lazio.

Both teams have very capable scorers and Inter are scoring and conceding for fun. With Zlatan returning and Inter down some defenders in an already suspect backline, I think we should see some goals. You can also get +105 odds for either of Zlatan or Lukaku to be an anytime goalscorer.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-105)

Pick 3: Udinese vs Parma

From four of the top sides in Serie A, we move to the opposite end of the table with 19th-place Udinese hosting 16th-place Parma at 12:00 pm EST on Sunday afternoon.

Udinese is both winless 0-0-3 (WDL) and goalless (0GF/4GA) so far on the season. A 1-0 defeat to Roma in their last match isn’t too bad, but being shut out out home to newly-promoted Spezia (2-0) the match prior, will leave manager Luca Gotti wanting much more from his side.

Parma aren’t looking much better at 1-0-2 and have scored just two goals, while conceding six. One of those goals scored came in their last match, a 1-0 home win over Verona.

If we breakdown a few more stats we can see that Udinese is creating some chances. They’ve recorded the sixth-most attempts in the league at 46, yet rank just tenth in shots on target with 12. With all those attempts, their xG is tenth overall at 4.7, yet with zero goals scored they are vastly underperforming. With an xGA of 2.6, they rank third overall, but they again come up short in this category as they’ve underperformed in allowing four goals.

Parma may have more goals scored on the year than Udinese, but they rank 17th in attempts (25) and 15th in shots on target with nine. Unsurprisingly their xG of 2.8 ranks 17th, a number they’ve still failed to exceed. An xGA of 4.4 for Parma ranks about mid-pack at 11th, but conceding six goals sees them underperforming in that category as well.

It’s early, but there’s little to get exciting about with either side right now. Perhaps one team finds a goal, or the teams split the points with a low-scoring draw, but regardless, this looks like a play on the UNDER. While the game is currently off the board, odds of -125 for the UNDER 2.5 goals were available prior to Parma’s positive tests being announced.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-125)

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