- Real Madrid sit first in La Liga table, but have already dropped six points
- Barca are down in fourth having already suffered two defeats
- The betting value lies with those “in the pack” like Atleti and Sevilla
After seven games, La Liga‘s table has a slightly unfamiliar look. None of the Big Three have pulled away and Granada is in second place! Sevilla are also in the mix – currently 6th place, just two points behind leaders Real Madrid – and their title odds have shortened from an average of +16000 on August 12 to +3000 today.
Do they have a genuine chance to win? If not, could they still be a good bet to win “without Real Madrid and Barca”? They are +300 in that market, behind only Atleti in La Liga odds.
La Liga 2019/20 – Odds
|Team||Current League Position||Odds to Win La Liga|
|Barcelona||T4th (13 points)||-125|
|Real Madrid||1st (15 points)||+140|
|Atletico Madrid||T2nd (14 points)||+800|
|Sevilla||6th (13 points)||+2500|
|Athletico Bilbao||7th (12 points)||+15000|
|Valencia||9th (9 points)||+20000|
|Real Sociedad||T4th (13 points)||+20000|
|Villarreal||8th (11 points)||+30000|
|Real Betis||T11th (8 points)||+75000|
|Granada||T2nd (14 points)||+50000|
*Odds taken on 10/02/19
Barca, despite their indifferent start to the season, remain odds-on to win La Liga; but with Messi less than 100% and the Catalans struggling to find their rhythm, this may not be the stroll that many were, and still are, predicting.
Real Madrid are not without their problems both on the pitch and off it, and only managed a home draw this week against Club Brugge in the Champions League. The locals are restless.
Real Madrid forward Eden Hazard could leave the Spanish club next summer. A trade deal of Neymar/Hazard between PSG and the Spanish giants could appear next summer. [Don Balon] pic.twitter.com/woW6SrJbIX
— Chelsea News ®️ (@CFCNewsReport) October 2, 2019
With the big two in varying states of unease, this does arguably leave the door open for one of the chasing pack to make this the season where the establishment is given a shakeup.
Given that there is no value whatsoever in Barca and very little in Real Madrid (+140), we need to look beyond the surface to find the value. As mentioned at the start of this piece, Sevilla are certainly of interest.
Sevilla In Good Shape
Three wins and a draw in their opening four games put Sevilla top of the league, but a 1-0 home defeat by Real Madrid followed by an away loss at Eibar, slightly punctured their progress.
They did bounce back well at the weekend, though, with a thrilling 3-2 home win over Real Sociedad and really do look in good shape, particularly as this run was interspersed with two wins out of two in their opening Europa League fixtures.
This is a team that boasts a good home record in front of a partisan crowd in the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium and is well managed by Julen Lopetegui. They may not have the financial clout of the big two – three if you include Atleti – but in a season where the big names have problems to overcome, no one is better placed than Sevilla to profit.
No team in La Liga has won more than four games at this early juncture of the season and so Sevilla have put themselves firmly in the mix. With their attacking style, they will entertain along the way.
Value In The “Without…” Market
Their goals- against column may not compare with some of their rivals and may ultimately cost them, but I’d certainly not discourage anyone from the +300 on offer in the “Without Real Madrid and Barca” market.
The +2500 offered is fairly priced and worthy of consideration, but it’s almost inconceivable that the travails of Real and Barca will continue over the course of a whole season. At some stage, one of them will get their act together.
My pick: Sevilla to win La Liga “Without Real Madrid and Barcelona” (+300)